Lieutenant General Talat Masood, a former Pakistani defence minister, said this weekend that his country’s enhanced nuclear capability exposed a “secret arms race”, triggered by rivalry between India and China.

The scale of Pakistan’s nuclear ambitions was revealed last week in a report by the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security, which published satellite pictures of a plutonium production site at Khushab in Punjab.

Analysts said the plant included a reactor capable of producing enough plutonium for 50 warheads in a year, more than doubling its current strength. China has an estimated 450 warheads and India has about 100.

The disclosure came as the US House of Representatives ratified President George W Bush’s deal to supply nuclear fuel and technology to India, which could allow it to boost its own production of plutonium warheads.

Plutonium makes lighter, more compact and deadlier weapons than uranium. Pakistan’s new capability will alter the military balance in the region by giving it a “second strike” capability.

India and Pakistan have fought three wars since they were separated at independence in 1947. In 1987, A Q Khan, the so-called father of Pakistan’s programme, announced that any future conflict could be nuclear. Khan is now under house arrest after helping Iran and Libya to develop nuclear programmes.

Masood said that Indian attempts to keep up with China’s increased nuclear production were causing anxiety in Pakistan and generating pressure to increase its capability. Distrust between India and Pakistan over Kashmir and terrorism made it likely that the arms race would intensify, he added.

“It means self-reliance for Pakistan, which is now more important because the United States is favouring India (in nuclear co-operation),” he said. “It means we can make smaller weapons which are easier to fire at longer range.”

Dr Anupam Shrivastava, director of the Centre for International Trade and Security at the University of Georgia and an adviser on proliferation to the American, Indian and Chinese governments, said: “Unlike Pakistan, India has a no first strike policy. It completely changes India’s military planning because having plutonium gives Pakistan the option of deploying from land, sea or air.

“For Pakistan it’s a quantum leap. It gives them options to target all of India.”

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