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Dozens of bouquets have been prepared to mark her 100th day as Chancellor today, but the only number that seemed to count was the 5,048,000 on the dole. The unemployment rate is now at 12.2 per cent, marginally higher than in January. The total is 200,000 lower than in February 2005, but that figure was artificially swollen by labour market reforms.
Despite the blow, Frau Merkel tried to remain optimistic. “I’ve been so motivated by the first 100 days that I am actually quite looking forward to the next 100,” she said.
Although her personal rating has been as high as 80 per cent, Frau Merkel faces an important test at regional elections on March 26. The Social Democrats are likely to be punished for their role as junior partner in her grand coalition Government, which has still not tackled the problem of job creation. If the Social Democratic partner is weakened, she, too, will begin to have problems.
She has cut a confident figure abroad, changing the tone of relations with Washington (warmer) and Moscow (cooler); discovering a talent for EU summitry and developing a new friendship over a blood-sausage dinner with Tony Blair.
She has also revealed a taste for strategic thinking. Recently she was overheard asking questions like: “Why are senior Chinese ministers travelling only to countries with oil and gas? What will happen when a country with a billion people sets its own standards for DVD machines?” Her conclusion was that the West, and in particular the EU, should develop more closely co-ordinated policies.
Success at home has been more limited. She has made it more difficult for unemployed adults to leave their parental homes and claim state subsidies for new apartments. The law has been changed to raise retirement age from 65 to 67 and increase VAT by three points to 19 per cent from 2007.
Neither initiative addresses the dilemma of how to translate higher growth — now predicted to be 1.5 per cent this year — into jobs. A taskforce is to be set up to help to organise the 50,000 jobs likely to be on offer during the World Cup in June. These, however, are likely to disappear by the autumn.
There has been no headway on health reform. The tabloids, meanwhile, are running health-scare headlines almost daily, saying that patients will soon have to pay the full price of medicines up front.
Frau Merkel’s skill has been to present herself as conscientious and modest, compared with her predecessor, Gerhard Schroder, who was mocked for his vanity. The writer Joseph von Westphalen spoke for many yesterday when he said: “It’s so refreshing. Perhaps this is how politics is meant to be: without colour and without excitement.”
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