Britain has an “elevated” risk of being hit by terrorists, while London is at “high” risk, together with Baghdad, Kabul and Jerusalem, according to a terrorism risk map published today by Aon, the world’s second-largest insurance broker.

Paul Bassett, an executive director of Aon, said that events such as the Madrid train bombing in March last year and the murder of Theo van Gogh, the Dutch film-maker, by an Islamic fundamentalist in November, meant that almost half of the countries with an increased risk of terrorist attack were in Europe.

“We’re seeing increased recruiting of radical Islamists in Europe for a tour of duty in Iraq, then these people returning to their own country, feeling motivated and recruiting others,” said Mr Bassett, a former bomb disposal expert.

“If they can carry out a successful attack around the election in the UK, they will.”

The map assigns ratings ranging from “severe” to “low” to each country, taking into account the risk from terrorists, nationalists, separatists and other extremists. Symbols on the map include a skinhead for far-right groups and a rabbit for animal extremists. A blindfolded head marks places where kidnapping is common.

Aon has increased the terrorism risk ratings of 31 countries, including Australia, Germany, Egypt, Nigeria, Denmark and South Korea.

Almost half of the countries with a higher risk rating were in Europe and 23 per cent were in Africa. “The 2005 map highlights the need for vigilance in so-called safer European countries,” Mr Bassett said.

Six countries — Switzerland, Denmark, Poland, Djibouti, Chad and Libya — that were considered safe from attacks by Islamic extremists last year are now believed to be at risk.

Libya and Greenland were the world’s safest territories last year. This year the Western Sahara is among those least threatened by terrorism, with Mongolia and African nations such as Cameroon, Togo and Gabon.

Australia, Poland and Estonia were at greater risk than previously because of their support for the Iraq war.

Mr Bassett said: “There’s concern that al-Qaeda and other terrorist organisations could take advantage of anti-Western sentiment and launch attacks in these countries.”

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