David Bell said that Ruth Kelly, the Education Secretary, would face growing pressure from schools and colleges to abolish the qualifications in favour of a new diploma.

Many were already working together to establish courses that better reflected teenagers’ interests, in line with proposals set out by Sir Mike Tomlinson, the former head of Ofsted, the schools regulator.

Ms Kelly controversially rejected Sir Mike’s report, which had virtually unanimous support in the teaching profession. It recommended a single diploma for students aged 14 to 19 in place of GCSEs, A levels and vocational qualifications.

Schools and further education colleges in many areas are forming partnerships to offer disaffected youngsters a more suitable mix of practical and academic study. But they complain that the qualifications system does not properly reflect students’ achievements in these programmes. Growing numbers of schools are also expressing interest in the International Baccalaureate as a more challenging alternative to A level for bright students. Nearly one in four A levels was awarded an A grade last year.

Ms Kelly reiterated her determination to keep A levels yesterday, telling political journalists at a Westminster lunch that “the education world can sometimes cloud the debate and give the wrong impression”.

She added: “A levels and GCSEs are here to stay. But the barrier between academic and vocational qualifications needs to come down. We need to find a way to get more teenagers to stay on past the age of 16 or 17.” Ms Kelly had insisted that GCSEs and A levels would remain, while setting out plans in a White Paper in February to establish 14 vocational diplomas linked with business. She promised a review in 2008, but said that it would only examine “what, if anything ” could improve A levels.

Mr Bell, who backed the Tomlinson reforms, told The Times that the Education Secretary’s view could be overtaken by events on the ground by then. He said: “I just wonder if this is a good example of where practice might outstrip policy. If you go to schools and colleges, they are beginning to do more of the things that were envisaged.

“The Secretary of State has quite categorically said GCSE and A level are there, but three years down the line how does the qualifications structure fit with the practice?” He added: “Schools and colleges are getting on with the job. There will come a point where we [ask], ‘Does the qualifications infrastructure now reflect the emerging practice from the ground up?’.”

Sir Mike’s two-year inquiry, which was established by the Government, argued that the present examination system led to disaffection among many teenagers. They saw GCSEs as irrelevant but knew that employers regarded vocational courses as second-class.

Huge amounts of money and time were devoted to GCSEs at 16, sending a message that it was acceptable to leave school at that age and giving the UK one of the highest dropout rates at 17 of any large industrialised country. Meanwhile, A levels no longer stretched the most able students, leaving top universities unable to distinguish the best from the rest.

The Tomlinson report said that a single diploma, at four levels of difficulty, would create a greater challenge for bright students, allow all youngsters to study at their own pace and erase the historic divide between academic and vocational qualifications.

Mr Bell, the Chief Inspector of Schools in England, said that it had been “the prerogative of the Secretary of State” to concentrate on improving vocational education. He said: “I thought the Tomlinson proposals were more likely to secure that end, but we are looking towards the same end of making sure we do more for all young people.”

Mr Bell added: “Those people, myself included, who were arguing for the Tomlinson approach to the diploma were not arguing that none of the content that makes up a GCSE or A level would survive. Much of the content would be encompassed.

“As that content evolves, which it will, and practice evolves, and schools and colleges are looking to validate performance, then you do have to revisit the question: ‘Are the A level, GCSE and vocational diploma as laid out in the White Paper fit for purpose?’ I think it is worth keeping that under review for 2008 and beyond.”

Mr Bell’s comments come as one million teenagers are sitting examinations in schools and colleges. He acknowledged that uncertainty over their future could dent confidence in the examinations, but said that students could only “do what they have to do”.

Miss Kelly said only last week that "A levels and GCSEs will stay as free-standing qualifications". But she is now being openly contradicted by many of her own officials.

Ken Boston, chief executive of the Qualifications and Curriculum Authority, the government exams watchdog, said this month that A levels “will be out the door and the diploma will take over” within a decade.

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