Tony Blair and Gordon Brown are given the starkest warning of the cost of their feuding, with the Populus survey showing David Cameron’s Conservatives moving into an eight-point lead.

The shock results of the Times poll — the first since Friday’s reshuffle — will be a chilling warning to the warring factions of the perils of more infighting.

It came as Mr Blair tried to head off growing calls from his MPs to reach an agreement with Mr Brown over a handover of power.

Pressed by many MPs at a tense private Parliamentary Labour Party meeting to spell out his plans for the transition, Mr Blair promised to allow his successor “ample” time to take his place and prepare for the next general election.

It was a significant shift and many MPs said later it meant that Mr Blair would almost certainly go next year. It was an uncomfortable meeting for Mr Blair who encountered rising concern about the party’s showing in the local elections, the foreign prisoner row and the continuing tension between him and the man who is almost certain to succeed him, Mr Brown. Blairite ministers were also attacked for raising the stakes and accusing moderate MPs of plotting against the Prime Minsiter.

Support for Labour has dropped since early April by six points to 30 per cent, equal to the lowest in any poll since 1992. By contrast, the Tories are up four points at 38 per cent, opening up the widest gap between the parties in 14 years. The Liberal Democrats are down one point at 20 per cent.

Morever, support for Mr Blair to remain Prime Minister beyond the end of this year has fallen from 42 per cent to 31 per cent in a month, with half the public wanting him to step down by December. More than half think that the “Government’s biggest problem is now Tony Blair himself”.

The Cabinet reshuffle is dismissed by nearly three quarters as an attempt to deflect attention from the Government’s problems, while nearly two thirds believe that “the way things are going, Labour will lose the next general election”.

Mr Cameron’s rating is now higher than Mr Blair’s, the first time any Tory leader has been ahead. He has a larger lead over Mr Brown when people consider the next election.

The results register the full initial impact of the political earthquake that has shaken the Government and Labour since Easter. While Labour leaders will hope that opinion will swing back a little, the latest figures show how it could shift permanently towards the Tories if disunity continues.

Mr Blair’s announcement that he will allow his successor time to settle in effectively abandons the pretence. which some of his closest supporters have sought to maintain, that he will serve for a full third term.

Mr Blair also gave yesterday his strongest public endorsement of the Chancellor, making it clear that he was his preferred successor and declaring that he would be new Labour “to his fingertips”. Throughout the day he insisted that he will make good his promise to organise an orderly transition. He and Mr Brown met privately to discuss how to take the talks forward.

The Prime Minsiter refused, however, to name a date for his departure, suggesting that such a move would paralyse Government. But there was nonetheless caution among Mr Blair’s critics both inside and outside the Brown camp. At last night’s meeting they were insisting that he and Mr Brown should agree some kind of timetable so that the party could have some certainty about the future.

Sceptics were also wondering whether Mr Blair’s words could be taken at face value after the allegations by his supporters on Sunday of a plot against him.

Asked whether Mr Brown was still his chosen successor he said: “Of course he is. When have I ever said anything different?” He added that it was in the interests of the country that Labour got on with governing. “There are real issues out there that concern people,” he said. “They will not thank me or my party if instead of concentrating on those issues, we engage in endless speculation about when during this Parliament I stand down.”

Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,509 adults over 18 by telephone between May 5 and 7. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to be representative of all adults. Populus is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

For details go to www.populuslimited.com.

THE TIMES POLL
Voting intentions now

Blair 30%
Cameron 38%

and in the future

Brown 31%
Cameron 41%

People who expect Labour to lose next election 65%

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