The expected no vote in France, with a similar result expected in the Netherlands on Wednesday, puts pressure on Tony Blair who takes over the EU presidency on July 1.

President Jacques Chirac, who will broadcast on television after the polls close tonight, is set to urge other countries to continue with the ratification process.

Government sources said that was likely to cut little ice in Britain. “Chirac will attempt to shift the blame for the defeat and urge the other countries to go on and ratify because he does not want to carry the can for the constitution falling down,” a source said.

“The feeling now is that we do not really want to try to struggle on just to save his face.”

A rejection of the constitution in France would allow Blair “an out”, government sources added, saying that Britain had always been lukewarm about the document.

The last opinion polls in France put the no vote at 54%. Polls in Holland showed the no camp leading with 57%. Denmark, Poland, Portugal, Ireland and the Czech Republic say that they intend to press ahead with referendums.

Blair, who will make a statement from his holiday villa in Tuscany tomorrow, is wary of squandering political capital on a futile vote. A Downing Street spokesman said it was all about “political chemistry” in Europe. “If there is a no vote we will have to look at it,” he said.

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