With George W Bush in political freefall, speculation is intensifying about his successor. The rising star among conservatives is George Allen, senator for Virginia and former governor of the state.

The son of a famous American football coach, Allen is a minor figure compared with prominent rivals such as Senator John McCain and Rudolph Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, but he is more politically mainstream and potentially acceptable to Republican stalwarts.

Bruce Allen, general manager of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers pro-football team, has no doubt that his elder brother can go all the way to the White House. “He has always been a leader,” he said. “I would never underestimate what he is able to do. He’s very real and that’s what makes him special.”

Those close to Allen’s unofficial campaign place his chances of winning his party’s nomination at 60-40. Although no senator has won the presidency since John F Kennedy, Allen has hands-on experience as a governor and a folksy, populist touch.

No matter how smart his suit and tie, he is never separated from his “lucky” cowboy boots. Nor will he ever give up his chewing tobacco and spittoon, according to an insider, although he is said to be a Virginia gentleman rather than a Texas swaggerer like Bush.

Sean Hannity, an influential right-wing radio and television host, has been boosting Allen’s prospects by comparing him with Ronald Reagan, a friend of Allen’s father, and declaring him capable of winning every state in the South against Hillary Clinton, the Democrat favourite.

Washington movers and shakers are also talking him up. “He knows why he wants to be president and can convey that to the voters,” said one leading analyst. The 53-year-old senator has already topped a poll of “congressional and political insiders” in the magazine National Journal as the most likely Republican candidate.

Yesterday Allen was on his third visit this year to New Hampshire, a pivotal state in the primary campaigns, buttering-up local Republicans and raising funds for his Senate re-election campaign next year. Democrats are pressing Ben Affleck, the Hollywood actor, to stand against him.

In an effort to raise his national profile, Allen has been springing up on television chat shows, adopting a notably cool tone on Bush’s recent political misadventures.

He is now breaking ranks publicly with Bush, voicing his criticism of the handling of Hurricane Katrina, runaway government spending and the nomination of Harriet Miers, the White House counsel, to the Supreme Court. The growing rift between the president and his conservative base has given Allen a chance to speak out without appearing to be unduly disloyal.

Hurricanes are “easy to prepare for”, Allen said bluntly, recalling that as governor of Virginia he found it helpful to “get your boots in the mud”. And while Bush was promising to spend up to $200 billion (£114.4 billion) to restore New Orleans, Allen gave a pointed, well received speech to the conservative Club for Growth in favour of cutting spending.

Although hardly short of cash, Allen emphasises that he is not as rich as some American politicians: “I hate waste. I hate to waste food, I hate to waste electricity and I hate to waste money.” As for Miers, he has adopted a sceptical wait-and-see approach before deciding whether to confirm her appointment to the Supreme Court.

“I want to see conservative judges on the court,” Allen said. “I think there should be a presumption that she is qualified but as Ronald Reagan said, ‘Trust but verify’ and I want to verify that she does have that philosophy.” As one Allen insider said: “He has the ability to say offensive things without being offensive.”

It is not a trait that endears Allen to neoconservatives, who regard him as intellectually vapid and ideologically bland. The neocons would prefer Dick Cheney, the vice-president, or Condoleezza Rice, secretary of state, to stand in 2008, but neither seems inclined to run. Fred Barnes, of the Weekly Standard, the neoconservative house journal, warned recently that Clinton could win the White House all too easily against a weak Republican field.

Some think that Allen could form a dream ticket with the better known Rice or Giuliani as vice-president, pulling in extra voters in swing states.

Larry Sabato, a political analyst, was at the University of Virginia with Allen and has kept a close eye on his career. “You want the president to be a leader and he has got the leadership gene,” he said. “He’s handsome and physically imposing; he looks much better on TV than he looks in person.”

He also has a “mean streak”, Sabato warned. When the campaign gets going, there will be “no rules other than winning. To him it is just like a football game, you go out there and hit them harder and harder”.

With conservatives looking for a new champion, the message could make them cheer.

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