So that’s a vote for Clinton in 2008, then? Not at all. Hirschberg is thinking of backing Mark Warner, the former governor of Virginia, a likable, low-key, moderate Democrat who won a traditionally Republican state and, by all accounts, ran it competently. At this stage, it is enough of a recommendation.

“I don’t know a thing about him and I don’t care,” Hirschberg said last week as Warner listened to her husband explaining the finer points of organic farming. “I just want somebody with decent values who can win. It’s nothing to do with Hillary personally. It’s irrational and unfair, but she is polarising.”

Hirschberg, 49, has seen one Democratic hopeful after another pass through the Stonyfield yoghurt farm. New Hampshire, the state where the first primaries for the presidential nominations take place, is eagerly courted by White House contenders. With 1,000 days to go before the next presidential election, the parade of candidates has already begun.

Bill Clinton — to whom Warner, as a southern governor, is often compared — toured the same organic company in the early 1990s on the day he was exposed as a Vietnam draft dodger. He lay down in the cooler room, stared at the ceiling pipes and thought his bid for the presidency was over.

Hillary’s campaign has not even officially started, yet some Democrats are already writing off her chances. Husband Bill, the comeback kid, went on to survive a number of near-death experiences and it may be just a blip on her road to the White House. But for the first time she faces a serious rival.

The lanky, toothy Warner, 51, was the keynote speaker on Friday at the annual 100 Club dinner of Democrat officials, party bigwigs and fundraisers in New Hampshire, the biggest event in their political calendar.

At the tables the chatter was all about Clinton v Warner. “I love Hillary Clinton. I love her! I’d be so happy if she became president, but I worry that the Republicans won’t let her win,” said Wendy DuPuy, 34. “They will smear her so viciously, they will stop at nothing.”

DuPuy has reluctantly concluded that it would be better if Clinton did not stand for the White House. “Strategically, I would rather she stayed in the Senate and remained a strong voice for Democrats there.”

Before entering politics, Warner made a $200m fortune as co-founder of Nextel, the telecommunications company, because he foresaw the demand for cell phones. In what will surely become a regular campaign soundbite he said at the dinner that politics was “not a question of left versus right or liberal versus conservative; it is the future versus the past”. It was a way of advertising his own credentials while subtly labelling the former first lady a has-been.

If there were few high points, there were also few lows in his modest speech about the need for national unity and effective government. DuPuy declared herself satisfied. “He was great. He sounded humble, human and he speaks in a way you can relate to.”

Some confessed to mild disappointment. “He was okay,” said one, who did not wish to be named. Another, Stuart West, said Warner was too right-wing. “He avoided gay marriage and women’s rights. And did he condemn the war? No.”

Warner hopes to become America’s Tony Blair, running to the right of the Democrat party to win the support of disaffected Republicans and independents.

“The sensible centre is wide open in this country,” he said. “There’s a lot the Democrats can learn from Tony Blair. He is an extraordinary world leader and a man of great conviction.”

For his part, Warner has learnt not to question the decision to invade Iraq. As a former governor, rather than a senator like Clinton, he does not have to explain away any embarrassing votes for or against military intervention.

At a time of war, one of Warner’s greatest areas of vulnerability is his lack of foreign policy and national security expertise. He is being coached by several former Clinton White House officials, including Richard Clarke, a former counter-terrorism adviser, and Ivo Daalder, an expert on Europe at the Washington-based Brookings Institution.

“I was impressed,” said Daalder. “He is a smart guy.”

Clinton remains the clear frontrunner. According to the independent pollster Scott Rasmussen, 59% of Americans expect her to be the Democrat nominee for president. But the number of Democrats who would “definitely” vote for her has dropped by 11 points in the past two weeks. It did not help that she looked sour when President Bush made a joke about Bill in his State of the Union speech.

The number of Americans outside Virginia who have heard of Warner is so negligible that he does not even feature in national polls. For now that is an asset rather than a handicap. The Democrats who do not know Warner wish they did, while those who know Clinton fear the worst.

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