It won’t happen yet. If there’s one message that emerged loud and clear from England’s tour of South Africa, it was that. England may have pulled off one of the toughest feats in the game by winning in one of the most inhospitable terrains, but they do not yet look ready to topple Australia.
This should have come as no great surprise. After all, great sporting empires, which is what Australia’s 10-year domination of the game amounts to, don’t collapse overnight. Their walls have to be laid siege to for years before they come tumbling down, and nobody has made much of a dent in the defences of the baggy green fortress lately. India promised much, only to lie down and die at home three months ago.
History would suggest it is a two-stage process. When Mark Taylor’s Australians ended the dominance of West Indies in 1995, they were capitalising on work done by Imran Khan’s valiant Pakistan side of the 1980s and their own efforts under Allan Border on home soil two years previously, when they came within two runs of winning the series.
Similarly, when England, under Ray Illingworth, finally regained the Ashes after a 12-year wait in 1970-71, their confidence was already high in the knowledge that they had held Australia 1-1 in the two previous series. They knew by then that one big push was probably all it would take.
The South Africa series also showed that England possess a leader with the will to seize the holy grail. After 18 months in the job, Michael Vaughan has progressed beyond imagining as leader. He now captains as he bats when in the best form — the rational laced with the recklessness of the irredeemable gambler. Perhaps because he knows it brings out the best, he is addicted to risk in both suits.
Vaughan has grasped the fundamental truth about cricket captaincy: that it is in large part about gambling. Richie Benaud knew this too, of course, which is why he said that captaincy was 10% skill and 90% luck. It is the business of the captain to create the luck, and Vaughan did it with two declarations at the Wanderers.
If Matthew Hoggard was the hero of that victory, Vaughan — possibly fired up by being dogged by tabloid journalists earlier in the tour and a £5,500 fine for criticising some weak-kneed umpiring — was its architect. At the start of the final day, when Duncan Fletcher, the coach, was more concerned with securing the draw, Vaughan alone believed that a creaking England attack could yet force the win. He not only pulled it off, but galvanised the team into relocating the elusive spirit that carried them through so many victories last year.
“On that last day we were the England of last summer,” Ashley Giles said. “The feeling out in the field was exactly like it was then. It was the first time I’d really felt that on this tour. Possibly the adversity played a part. There was a great buzz from ball one. It felt like something was going to happen every ball.”
If England are to beat Australia, it will take more inspirational captaincy of this sort. But as Vaughan pointed out in the Caribbean last year, England’s best chance may come not this year, but in Australia 22 months from now.
Vaughan won’t be fazed. He gave Graeme Smith as good as he got in Centurion and got stuck into Glenn McGrath during the last Ashes series. And the Australians don’t tend to play well against teams led by captains who refuse to bend the knee, as Arjuna Ranatunga, Sourav Ganguly and Stephen Fleming have shown.
England’s problems are various. The No 3 position has become a worry. Mark Butcher falls further off the pace with every injury, while Robert Key finds as many daft ways to get out as Butcher. Against disciplined bowling, the middle order of Graham Thorpe, Andrew Flintoff and Geraint Jones struggled to assert itself. The close catching is also a concern.
What was most worrying about Steve Harmison was not that he lost form — that was bound to happen at some stage — but that he seemed incapable of rediscovering it. The next time he loses it, will his confidence immediately nose-dive? And if England aim to build a squad of fast bowlers to cover them for five Ashes Tests in 54 days, the crisis engulfing James Anderson is more bad news.
What is good is that England now strive not just to win but to play the cricket of which they know themselves capable. They play the big points better now, having made a habit of winning the crucial fourth days that found them wanting in the past.
This was a hard series in which to play yourself back into form, as Harmison will no doubt testify, and this probably brought the sides closer together. It was see-saw cricket, but there was one constant: England always believed they could win the series and South Africa didn’t.
A 30-year sports boycott has left South African cricket straggling a generation in arrears. While today’s culture is for attacking cricket, they remain unadventurous, afraid to risk defeat in pursuit of victory. England will look a more settled and convincing side at home.
England’s new opening partnership grew in strength and may not be far removed in effectiveness from Australia’s own alliance of left-handers, Matthew Hayden, whose prodigious form has dipped, and Justin Langer. Marcus Trescothick’s defence has tightened, and he and Andrew Strauss amassed 1,104 runs between them in five Tests.
Australia will set themselves to erode England’s new-found confidence. They like to impose themselves early and are used to having England on the back foot from the first day of a series. If they do it again, the series will be as good as over. They will target Vaughan and Strauss with the ball and Harmison and Giles with a whirlwind of bats.
Australia have changed since the last Ashes series. Michael Clarke may be prodigiously talented, but England will take him in place of Steve Waugh. They will be less happy at the prospect of bowling at Damien Martyn, who has developed into a class act. They won’t be worried if Brett Lee returns to the side; historically England are untroubled by high pace on home soil.
Hoggard’s improvement as a swing bowler offers real hope against Australia’s dangerous top order, which can look vulnerable against the moving ball, as Pedro Collins of West Indies has shown in the VB one-day series. Australia’s close catching has also lost something since Mark Waugh retired.
What hasn’t changed is that McGrath and Shane Warne remain in residence. Since the two resumed their partnership almost seven months ago, they have cut a swathe through Sri Lanka, New Zealand and Pakistan at home and India away, claiming exactly 100 wickets between them in 11 Tests, even though Warne did not play on a pitch in Bombay as rough as his taste in fast food.
For the time being, Australia remain one firm step ahead of England. England have won six of their eight series since the Ashes were last contested, but Australia have won eight out of nine and will doubtless add another whitewash in New Zealand next month. The Kiwis’ reputation for competitiveness is exaggerated; their inferiority complex runs deeper than Milford Sound.
