The weekend Populus poll for The Times shows that Labour support is down three points at 37 per cent, the Tories seven points up at 35 per cent, and the Liberal Democrats down two points at 20 per cent. This is the narrowest margin in any poll since May. Not too much should be read in to any voting intentions poll so soon after a general election, but the broad result indicates that any post-May honeymoon is over.

Mr Blair seems to have lost much of the political advantage he had in late July. Although nearly a fifth of the public (19 per cent) say their view of the Prime Minister has become more positive because of the way he has handled the threat of terrorist attacks, almost a quarter (24 per cent) say they have become more negative, with more than a half saying their opinion has not changed. Men are more positive than women, at 22 against 16 per cent, and professionals and managers more critical than skilled manual workers.

The public also takes a generally critical view of the Iraq war, with only 30 per cent believing that military action was the right thing to do and 55 per cent the wrong thing. This is broadly the same balance as in January, when the question was last asked. Women and professionals remain the most strongly opposed. (For more details, see www.populuslimited.com)

The Government lost the initiative over its proposals for anti-terrorist legislation last month because of the hasty and ill-prepared package launched by Mr Blair on August 5 (partly in response to media criticism that not enough was being done) and because of the shooting of the Brazilian Jean Charles de Menezes by the police.

Both Mr Blair and Charles Clarke, the Home Secretary, made strong cases yesterday for fresh, early measures to deter and detect potential terrorists. Mr Clarke argued that existing rules on the use of data were insufficient for the changed circumstances. The public, he said, expected the protection not only of individual rights but also of democratic values, such as security.

After the mis-steps of last month the Government still has to address libertarian concerns, although Mr Clarke was careful not to stir up further controversy over relations with the judiciary. The decision not to recall Parliament gives ministers some leeway, but they need to remove ambiguities and loose thinking if they are to get a package agreed by the main parties by the time that MPs return on October 10.

Moreover, the Government now has to make a fresh start on public service reform. White Papers are promised this autumn on schools, health, pensions and what Mr Blair calls “respect”, or antisocial behaviour. A lot of work is going on in Whitehall but, apart from the occasional speech, such as that on failing schools by Ruth Kelly this week, little of this activity has registered publicly.

Mr Blair has to set out again what he wants to do domestically in his remaining two or three years in office, especially in his Labour conference speech. And everyone will be watching what Gordon Brown says, and does, particularly his relations with Mr Blair, starting with their visits to the TUC next week.

However, all this speculation about “normal politics” is dependent on the absence of another terrorist attack, which would change the political agenda again. Mr Blair is at the mercy of events. He cannot easily be pushed out of Downing Street, but he is no longer the master of his fate, or his legacy.

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