There has not been a severe suicide bombing since February 25. Israeli helicopter gunships have long since ceased attempts to kill militant Palestinian leaders. Tourists are returning to the holy sites. Some checkpoints have been removed, and diners are eating in restaurants without imminent fear of the windows being blown in. The militant group Hamas maintains its weapons, yet has begun participating in West Bank and Gaza elections.

The de facto ceasefire agreed between Mahmoud Abbas, the new president of the Palestinian Authority, and Ariel Sharon, the Israeli Prime Minister, in February has just about held. One Israeli has been killed since the February bombing, and the number of Palestinians killed each month is down to single figures.

But in the original land of prophets, there is no shortage of ancestral voices prophesying war.

The uncertainty was evident in Jerusalem on Thursday when diplomats gathered in President Katsav’s rose garden on Independence Day to listen to Israeli singers, and a band playing What A Wonderful World. The surrounding roads were sealed off, and conversation amid the birdsong and rose blossom inevitably drifted toward: how long can the good news last?

“Last year was the beginning of great hope, new hope,” Mr Katsav told the guests, saying Israel had minimised its military operations, released hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, handed over security control of Jericho and Tulkarm and eased road closures for Palestinians.

But, he continued, referring to the international peace plan, “unfortunately the Palestinian Authority has not fulfilled their commitments, their obligations according to the road map.”

The historic mistrust between the two sides remains. Israel complains that its security forces continue to intercept would-be suicide bombers, Palestinians that Israeli troops continue to make provocative raids into the West Bank and Gaza.

The lull in hostilities has also allowed internal divisions to resurface. Mr Sharon has angered the right wing of his Likud Party over plans to withdraw from the Gaza Strip. Mr Abbas faces the threat of a challenge from the Islamist faction Hamas and the splintering of his secular Fatah faction, long held together by the Machiavellian wiles of the late Mr Arafat.

Analysts say that the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians has gone off the boil, but still simmers. Without a solution to crucial issues such as Jerusalem’s status, Israel’s security and Palestinian refugees, many fear that an uneasy calm will erode into a third and even fourth intifada.

Zalman Shoval, a senior adviser to Mr Sharon, highlighted frustration at Mr Abbas’s refusal to confront and disarm Hamas. “The worrying signs are that the different terrorist organisations have not been reined in. On the contrary, there is a large measure of arms-smuggling into the territories, not only into Gaza, but also the West Bank, including Strela missiles,” he said.

Palestinians counter by accusing Israel of failing to abide by its “road map” undertakings to dismantle settlement outposts and halt building in larger settlements, both considered illegal under international law.

Major-General Nizar Ammar, a strategic planner for the Palestinian Authority in Gaza, said that Israel failed to appreciate that Mr Abbas’s strategy was to engage Hamas in politics rather than risk civil war by confronting it. “Abu Mazen (Mr Abbas) inherited real corruption and he is trying to deal with it. Step by step he will try to solve all these problems,” General Ammar said. “Israel did not give him anything to make him go strong into the negotiating room with Hamas. He was so weak in front of the factions he could get nothing out of them except calm.”

Palestinian frustration was reflected in Hamas’s electoral victory last week in the West Bank town of Qalqilya, where it took all 15 municipal seats. The new mayor is Sheikh Wajih Nazal who was elected from the Israeli jail where he has been locked up for three years.

Voters in the once-moderate Palestinian town said that they had voted for Hamas to send a defiant message. “After the death of Mr Arafat people hoped that some changes would take place with the election of Mahmoud Abbas, but we have not had changes,” said Nidal Jaloud, a town hall official. “People have not tasted the fruits of peace.”

But the real fury was directed at continuing corruption and nepotism of the Palestinian Authority. “Even the petrol coupons, telephone cards and food aid that were sent as donations to poor families never reached them,” said Umm Wael, 45, a teacher. “It all went to clan and family members. This has nothing to do with religion — it is about our daily needs.”

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