When the initial emotions of anger and shock subside in Lebanon following the brutal but sophisticated assassination of the former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, the country will demand to know who was behind the murder of the man who rebuilt Lebanon from the ashes of civil war.

Although it is too early to answer such a question with any certainty, the fact remains that in Lebanon the immediate finger of accusation will fall on two main parties.

For the pro-Syrian camp – those opposed to the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon despite a recent UN resolution spearheaded by the United States and France to that effect – Israel will be the main suspect.

Pro-Syrians will accuse Israel of wanting further to demolish Syria’s reputation and interests in Lebanon in a bid to have Washington take further punitive steps, or even actions, against Damascus, which it accuses of supporting what it deems as “Hezbollah terrorism”.

Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon would also mean a distance between Syrian troops and Israeli borders.

But for the anti-Syrian camp – politicians’ coalitions and parties in Lebanon calling for Syria’s withdrawal and an end to its meddling in the country’s internal affairs – Syria will be the main suspect. They will blame Syria of wanting to destabilise the country as a justification to maintain its presence in Lebanon.

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