Nick Blanford, Times Correspondent in Lebanon, assesses Hezbollah's military strategy, its political strength and how it might emerge from the conflict with Israel

"A senior Hezbollah figure told me some months ago that the party had been preparing for years for a military confrontation with Israel.

"The day of that confrontation that has now come. Just how effective Hezbollah's preparations have been is epitomised by one of its military positions, a mere 400 yards from the Israeli border.

"For four weeks the Israeli army has been throwing everything at that position, by aircraft and artillery. The Hezbollah group operating there is not being resupplied, and it is under constant bombardment. Yet thanks to whatever they have got stored in their underground ammunition bunkers, they are still hurling missiles into northern Israel.

"The Israelis have now managed to work troops to the north and have the position encircled, and yet still they have been able to carry on. They are either going to have to fight to the last, or try to sneak away at night through little valleys.

"It just shows how thoroughly prepared Hezbollah are. They knew that, come the day, the fighting would be down near the border and there would be no point having vast stockpiles of weapons in their secure areas like the Bekaa valley further north and east.

"The Israelis have been striking at any vehicle heading south that could be carrying rockets to resupply Hezbollah fighters - if they see a lorry, they blow it up.

"So Hezbollah has its weapons already in the south, scattered widely in different locations. The rockets are not located in large dumps, but stored in twos and threes in people's houses and in a myriad of underground bunkers.

"Each little squad of fighters - and they vary in numbers from 15 or 20 up to a maximum of about 100 - has ample supplies of rockets and ammunition within close range, and the indications are that they are ready and able to carry on fighting for some time.

"The political and diplomatic signs are that there will be no imminent agreement at the United Nations. While there remains some distinction between the Hezbollah position and the position of the Government of Lebanon, both are in harmony in rejecting the draft UN resolution, saying that it is one-sided in favour of Israel, and that it's a complete non-starter.

"The main sticking point for both is that the resolution envisages allowing Israeli troops to remain on Lebanese soil until the existing UN force is strengthened or a new multinational force is brought in. It also says that if Israel is attacked then it has the right to defend itself using military force. Both Hezbollah and the Lebanese government reject that.

"The differences between Hezbollah and the Government are fine.

"In an ideal world, Hezbollah would like to keep its weapons and military capability intact and redeploy along the Israeli border. The Lebanese Government would rather that Hezbollah was disarmed, and the Lebanese army deployed along the border.

"But the Government wants Hezbollah disarmed by peaceful means, through mutual agreement. Hezbollah has clambered onto this position, and says now that it should keep its weapons pending negotiations in the future.

"Hezbollah is able to command the automatic support of only one third of the 15-strong Lebanese Cabinet. It has two ministers of its own, plus three other Shia ministers who usually throw in their lot with Hezbollah.

"But it is able to punch above its weight because the Government itself is weak, with representatives from virtually all the main groups in Lebanon's diverse society.

"It is effectively a Government of national unity brought in amid the upheavals that followed the assassination of Rafiq Hariri, with the result that major decisions tend to be deadlocked as any group that disagrees with a measure can block it in Cabinet.

"Public opinion is by no means solidly in favour of Hezbollah. Rather, it is polarised along sectarian lines, with the Shias backing Hezbollah, and other groups like the Christians and the Druze keeping quiet while the country focuses on the common enemy, Israel.

"But you can bet that once the fighting is over there will be an awful lot of recriminations, pitting the Shias against all the other communities.

"There is a potential for civil war to break out once more if Hezbollah is not militarily defeated. If Hezbollah is not disarmed, if it becomes even more powerful than before, then the other communities might start to rearm themselves.

"If the country descends into civil war, I don't see how the other groups' factions could muster a military force that could challenge Hezbollah, as strong as it is today.

"But this war isn't over yet, and although its is doing well, Hezbollah has no powerful friends in the diplomatic community. Even China and Russia, which tend to be more sympathetic to Iran and Syria, are with the United States on that. So Hezbollah cannot count on serious diplomatic support, and Israel could well be allowed to carry on crushing Hezbollah.

"Israel has mobilised 30,000 troops and it is possible that it is going to cross the border in more force in the coming days."

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