THE fate of many hopeful cricketing souls depends on the judgment of two sets of people today: the England selectors and the medical advisers whose assessments are every bit as important.
Decisions on the 14 to represent England in the 50-over tournament for the ICC Champions Trophy in India next month will be conveyed to the ICC today, but the public announcement will be combined with the momentous revelation tomorrow from the Brit Oval, live to the world on television and radio from 3pm, of the 16 men who will be entrusted with the defence of the Ashes.
The official selection panel of David Graveney, Geoff Miller and Duncan Fletcher, apprised of the opinions of Andrew Flintoff and Andrew Strauss, must first make up their minds which of England’s two most recent captains they want to lead the two teams.
He will be one and the same man, probably Flintoff, but a rational judgment on this and any number of other borderline cases cannot be made without the careful opinion of Dr Peter Gregory, the ECB’s chief medical officer, and a variety of phsyiotherapists.
Several players will have medical tests at Loughborough today, but there is confidence that Flintoff and Ashley Giles will be fit to play in India, Flintoff probably only as a batsman; that James Anderson and Liam Plunkett will play a county match in the last week of this season (if necessary on loan to other counties); that Stephen Harmison will be fit for the full winter’s activities after a brief season sandwiched between long breaks to recover from shin and back pains; and that Marcus Trescothick will be mentally prepared for the challenge of an Ashes series.
Only Michael Vaughan and Simon Jones, whose presence would have made England favourites in Australia rather than the underdogs they now are, have been ruled out.
Medical calculations apart, the key questions are who should be captain and whether there should be an extra batsman or an extra fast bowler in the official party of 16 in Australia. Remembering the constant shuffling of players four years ago from the National Academy, which was based in Adelaide at the time, four or five reserves are going to be sent to Perth on this occasion to keep themselves ready for instant reinforcement of the main team if necessary.
The itinerary makes that essential. England will have only seven days of match cricket before the first Test starts at the Gabba on November 23. A one-day game on November 10 against a Prime Minister’s XI is followed by three-day matches against New South Wales and South Australia.
It is a delicate judgment whether to have the extra batsman or bowler simply because no one can be certain whether Flintoff will be able to bowl flat out. If he is, the balance of the team for Brisbane will probably have Flintoff at No 7 in the batting order, in which case the preference should be for one reserve batsman from a shortlist of Robert Key, Owais Shah, Ed Joyce and a longer one that would include Mark Butcher, John Crawley and Mark Ramprakash.
One could make a good case for any of the last three. Ramprakash, especially, remains the supreme technician of county cricket. The choice will probably fall on Key, however, despite an inconsistent season in his first year as Kent captain.
His relative success in Australia last time and his century against Pakistan on his home ground for England A in July will probably swing it his way, but Shah is such a good player of leg spin and his performance in his sole Test in Bombay in March was so outstanding that he would get my vote.
Sorting the fast-bowling choices after Harmison and Matthew Hoggard — both of whom need to look to their laurels — is tough. Sajid Mahmood has pace and much natural ability, but a floppy wrist that makes him inconsistent; Plunkett is strong mentally and physically but his action is wooden; Stuart Broad has more ability with bat and ball than either but is still a colt; Chris Tremlett has had to overcome a succession of injuries; James Anderson, blessed with the ability to swing the ball at pace, has never been consistent; and Jon Lewis is very consistent but lacks the sharpest pace.
On the grounds that Australian pitches will offer him bounce and the Kookaburra ball, when new, will swing, Lewis would be in my team in Brisbane and Perth. Fletcher will probably favour Mahmood’s ability to disconcert with extra pace.
The choices of second wicketkeeper after Chris Read and of the second spinner in support of Monty Panesar are no easier. Giles has a proven Test record and experience of beating Australia, so he should win preference over Jamie Dalrymple, the better batsman but an off spinner who has taken five wickets only once in first-class cricket.
Geraint Jones was probably assured that he would be going to Australia when he was dropped after the first Test against Pakistan in late July. He has not since made the runs demanded of him, however. He is a lesser wicketkeeper than both Read and James Foster and a lesser batsman than Matt Prior and Steven Davies, the wicketkeeper of the future.
England will stick with Jones, no doubt, but Prior has improved as a wicketkeeper and is the most likely to do what Jack Richards did when England last retained the Ashes in Australia in 1986-87: score a crucial Test hundred.
IN THE FRAME
Probable 16 for Australia: Flintoff, Strauss, Trescothick, Cook, Pietersen, Collingwood, Bell, Key, Read, G Jones, Panesar, Giles, Hoggard, Harmison, Mahmood, Anderson
Reserves: Batting: Joyce, Shah Bowling: Lewis, Broad, Plunkett, Dalrymple CM-J’s preferences: Shah for Key, Prior for G Jones, Lewis for Mahmood
14 for Champions Trophy: Flintoff, Strauss, Cook, Bell, Pietersen, Collingwood, Yardy, Dalrymple, Read, Lewis, Harmison, Plunkett, Mahmood, Giles
Travelling reserves: Joyce, Broad, Anderson
