England fly off from Heathrow this evening with rather too much dependence on the hope that after a series of mishaps and mistakes in the rehearsals, everything will come right on the night.
The return of Andrew Flintoff’s bowling menace and batting prowess, Stephen Harmison’s rhythm and line and Marcus Trescothick’s mental equilibrium and technical sharpness seem essential, but Alastair Cook and Monty Panesar must also settle down quickly in unfamiliar conditions if the defenders of the Ashes are to be anything like ready for the curtain’s rise.
Steve Waugh called his 800-page autobiography, genuinely written by himself in the months after his 168 Test career ended, Out of My Comfort Zone.
If the urn is not to be returned to Australian possession soon after Christmas or before, Flintoff will have to make sure that he and his England team get out of theirs almost from the moment that they arrive in Sydney on Sunday morning.
Flintoff himself, with a lot of help from those helping him to make the most of his market value, has produced two autobiographies of sorts in less than a year since the momentous events of the summer of 2005.
Except in recapturing the feeling of equality with the toughest cricket opponents in the world, so crucially instilled in his players by Michael Vaughan, the touring team will need to forget all that euphoria if they are to come out of the starting stalls in Brisbane 20 days from today in anything like the right frame of mind to raise their game again.
Any hope that the ICC Champions Trophy might get England back into the winning habit was scuppered when Australia drew first blood in Jaipur. Nathan Bracken and Stuart Clark are both dangerous swing bowlers, but two strong bowling performances in that match by Shane Watson and Mitchell Johnson more or less settled the only selection issues affecting Australia before the first Test on a ground where they have been invincible for the past 20 years.
Watson will balance a side that lacked a fifth serious bowler in England last year, while Johnson will enable them to field four fast bowlers plus Shane Warne yet still have a long batting order, with Adam Gilchrist at seven and the dangerous Brett Lee at nine.
Ricky Ponting’s team, justly and profoundly confident after winning 11 Tests out of 12 since last year’s rude awakening, have gone from strength to strength in India since England managed to win a final game against West Indies that was too late to keep them in the Champions Trophy.
It seems chillingly significant that Ponting himself, the dynamo of the side, has found form, rescuing his side against New Zealand in their semi-final, and that Glenn McGrath looks stronger with each game he plays. After his six-month break, all the old formidable balance and perfectly controlled menace have returned. Lee, his new-ball partner, is now the undisputed leader of the pack, having taken 52 wickets in the 12 Tests since the draw at the Brit Oval last September.
Warne is as irrepressibly brilliant as ever, having gobbled up 62 more Test wickets since the 40 garnered in the five Tests in England last time, so, with Ponting and Michael Hussey, the home team have what looks to be something close to an unbreakable spine. This is so despite question marks against four of the old guard — Gilchrist, Justin Langer, Matthew Hayden and, perhaps, Damien Martyn.
Gilchrist is 34 and the other three, 35, and none of them will play another Ashes series after this one. But Langer made 342 for Somerset against Surrey last summer, the seventh- highest score made in County Championship history, Hayden has averaged 55 with five more hundreds since his century at the Oval and Martyn has made some telling points to selectors who overlooked the unlucky nature of some of his dismissals in 2005.
He also struck the first psychological blows when he repeatedly stroked Harmison to the boundary in Jaipur.
Most prolific of all the Australians as they flexed their collective muscles against all-comers last winter were Ponting and Hussey, now certain to be his successor as captain. Hussey, the iron-willed left-hander who might easily have tipped the balance last year if Australia had had the courage to ditch his rival and contemporary Simon Katich, has scored 1,139 runs at an average of just under 76 since his first Test against West Indies less than a year ago.
As for Ponting, the adjective Bradmanesque, always dangerous, comes irresistibly to mind. Bradman famously averaged 99 in his 52 Tests: Ponting’s extraordinary record since the 2005 Ashes series is 1,483 runs at 78 in 12 Tests with eight hundreds.
And yet, and yet. Ponting plays good-length outswingers “on the walk” early in an innings. Sajid Mahmood had him caught at slip by Andrew Strauss in Jaipur and Sri Sreesanth got him in the same way even when well set against India last week. Matthew Hoggard has the skill to do the same although he only once got Australia’s captain out, in the defeat at Lord’s, last time.
Exposing Ponting and Martyn to the new ball will be crucial if England are to prevail against the odds and that means that Hoggard and Harmison must first re-establish supremacy over Langer and Hayden.
It is encouraging that Duncan Fletcher, the England coach, has recognised the need for Harmison to do as much bowling as possible in the next two weeks. It cannot help that the run-in to the first Test at the Gabba has never been shorter since Ivo Bligh first regained the Ashes in Australia in 1883.
A one-day match in Canberra next Friday is followed by a three-day “practice” game in Sydney in which England have asked for more than 11 of their players to be involved, leaving just one first-class match, against South Australia in Adelaide over the weekend before the opening match of the series. Again there are only three days allowed and one may safely predict that it will be a draw.
A draw in the series is the best that England can realistically hope. That would be sufficient to retain the Ashes and in the absence of Vaughan and Simon Jones, it would be a remarkable achievement. What everyone wants is that the pot should still be boiling when the biggest crowd assembled at a cricket match gets together on Boxing Day for the 100th Test to be staged at the MCG.
Then, perhaps, there will still be all to play for in Sydney. Australia must start as strong favourites, but if the main players all remember their lines, it is not out of the question that England may surprise them again.
TWO KEY BATTLES DOWN UNDER
Matthew Hoggard v Ricky Ponting
LAST TIME
Apart from his magnificent match-saving century at Old Trafford, Ponting had an indifferent series. Until the Oval, Hoggard did not enjoy particular success, but he did dismiss Matt Hayden on several occasions and was a crucial workhorse for England
IN BETWEEN
Since England, Ponting has been in the touch of his life, scoring hundred after hundred, including two in his 100th Test against South Africa in Sydney earlier this year. Hoggard went on to enjoy futher success on England's travels to the sub-continent last winter, but struggled against Pakistan in the summer
THIS TIME
Once set, Ponting is hard to dislodge, but the Tasmanian still exhibits vulnerability early on against the full length swinging ball, in which Hoggard specialises. The slip cordon should expect some catchable edges from the Australian captain.
Stephen Harmison v Damien Martyn
LAST TIME
The West Australian did not enjoy a successful Ashes series, struggling for form and being unlucky with umpiring decisions. Harmison enjoyed a successful first Test at Lord's but, as is his tendency, suffered from fluctuations in form for the rest of the series
IN BETWEEN
Harmison has struggled for his best form since the Old Trafford Test against Pakistan in July, when he took a devastating 10-wicket haul on a lively pitch. Martyn was dropped shortly after but has since regained his place and has shown impressive return to form in India during the Champions Trophy
THIS TIME
Harmison's ability to extract bounce from just back of a length at genuine pace should cause Martyn problems, but the diminutive batsman has the benefit of playing on Waca pitches which have invariably offered visiting fast bowlers plenty of assistance.
- Geoffrey Dean
