By challenging Israel to respond militarily, al-Qaeda hopes to drive a wedge between the Muslim world and Washington.

Few doubt that the attack was planned by al-Qaeda cells. Kenya’s leaders were quick to blame the organisation, noting that the country had already suffered a devastating attack in 1998 when suicide bombers blew up the American Embassy, killing 219 people. Israeli and American Intelligence have also blamed al-Qaeda.

An attack on Israeli interests and aircraft abroad, however, marks a change in tactics. For years Osama bin Laden and senior al-Qaeda operatives saw the West, and America in particular, as their real target. Bin Laden was motivated largely by his anger at the presence of American troops on Saudi soil, and many of his supporters, especially in Saudi Arabia, see this fight as more fundamental than the Palestinian issue.

Over the past year, however, al-Qaeda has changed tactics. By aligning itself with Hamas, Islamic Jihad and groups dedicated to fighting Israel, it has broadened its appeal within the Arab world, and indeed to all Muslims, many of whom support the Palestinian cause.

Yesterday’s attack will be cheered by many in Gaza and the West Bank. Al-Qaeda’s aim is to identify Israel even more closely in Arab minds with President Bush’s War on Terror and thus undercut any public support for that war by linking it to Israel’s policies in the occupied territories.

The Israeli Foreign Ministry made explicit yesterday its identification with the war against terrorism. “Any attempt by the international community to divide the world of terrorism into the more and the less objectionable, on the basis of the causes they espouse, will doom any offensive against terrorism to failure,” it said. “Terrorism is indivisible and all attempts to understand it will only serve to ensure its continuation.”

Al-Qaeda knows that Israel is unlikely to allow the attack to go unavenged, especially at a time when Ariel Sharon, its Prime Minister, and Binyamin Netanyahu, its Foreign Minister, were competing for the Likud leadership. Any Israeli attack on targets in the Middle East would cause a wave of anger among Muslims. It would also embarrass moderate Arab governments, making it harder for them to offer America open co-operation in the war against terrorism.

Washington has had considerable success in recent months in quietly winning the help of Muslim governments in pursuing al-Qaeda links. The organisation needed to stage a spectacular new act to prove that it was not beaten. By choosing East Africa it was able to stage a symbolic show of defiance in a country that it had hit before.

The Bush Administration will want to offer unconditional support to the Israelis in fighting international terrorism, although it may counsel caution in any immediate retaliation, even if such advice is unlikely to influence the Israeli Government.

For al-Qaeda the most important factor in the operation is the attempt to win the respect and admiration of Muslims. This spectacular broadening of the fight is a show of defiance that will appeal to the angry young men who are convinced that the West is engaged in a war against Islam.

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