Is this a man fit to lead Europe in the exceptionally challenging period that lies ahead? To preside over a new constitution designed to inspire the citizens of Europe? To welcome ten new member countries out of the dark valley of dictatorships and personality cults into the sunlit uplands of a democratic community dedicated to the rule of law?

The answers to all these questions, from Tony Blair and the British Government, should be an emphatic and unequivocal “yes”.

The idea of warmly welcoming the Italian presidency of the EU and Berlusconi’s political role will go against all the instincts of the British political establishment and the Foreign Office, not to mention the class warriors who are rising again to dominance in the Labour Party.

For the politicians, diplomats and opinion formers of Brussels, Paris and Berlin, to ask questions about Berlusconi’s “fitness” is to answer them. The spicy cocktail of anxiety, innuendo and condescension doing the rounds at diplomatic receptions this week was beautifully distilled in a few toxic sentences in Tuesday’s Financial Times:

“As Italy takes over the presidency of the European Union today, alarm bells are ringing around the Continent. The concern is at Silvio Berlusconi taking the chair. Seasoned observers doubt his objectivity. They question the coherence of his Government. They worry that the media billionaire will be distracted by personal priorities when he should be focusing on international affairs. They fear the worst.”

Why, then, should Britain welcome the Italian presidency and encourage Berlusconi to hang on to the personal control over European policy, which he wrested from the Italian diplomatic establishment when he appointed himself Foreign Minister nearly two years ago?

Because Berlusconi, for all his personal defects, represents exactly the sort of political vision that Britain has been trying to promote in Europe for decades.

The Blair and Berlusconi Governments have much in common in their attitudes to the key issues facing Europe today. These range from free trade and globalisation to labour regulation, tax, welfare, pensions and even the need for radical reform of Europe’s most important economic projects: the Common Agricultural Policy (since neither country is a huge surplus producer) and the euro project (since Italy has suffered more than any other EU country, with the possible exception of Germany, from the loss of national control over its monetary and fiscal affairs).

But the reasons why Britain and Italy should see themselves as natural allies in Europe run much deeper than the economic philosophies of their two governments. Both countries now have more common ground on most EU issues than either country shares with Germany or France. While this consonance can be seen most clearly today in foreign policy and economics, it stems from a deeper issue: neither Britain nor Italy can ever be fully equal partners in a European Union that is dominated by the relationship between France and Germany. But if Britain and Italy can co-operate with each other and attract other allies, especially in Scandinavia, Iberia and Central Europe, they will usually be able to lead Europe in their direction, as they did (for better or worse) on Iraq.

Before I explain the consequences of this controversial statement, let me emphasise that this is not a “counsel of despair”. The reason why Britain and Italy can never be equal in the present Franco-German Europe is not because Germany and France are more powerful, more successful or richer than either Italy or Britain. They are not. Germany is somewhat more populous, but on almost all other statistics Europe’s four largest nations are essentially in a dead heat. In terms of living standards, economic output and even potential military power, Europe’s “big four” are closer to one another than any of them is to the true global superpowers such as America, Japan and China on the one hand, or to the middle-size countries such as Canada and Spain.

Why, then, am I so convinced that it will be impossible for Britain or Italy to transform the Franco-German partnership into a foursome or a ménage à trois?

In the case of Britain, the answer is quite simple: Britain doesn’t really want that kind of intimacy with France, Germany or any other country.

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