The decision to combine the local and European elections this year, coupled with the innovation of postal ballots for many citizens, has produced the most unusual and complicated political contest in British history. The electorate appears set to respond, according to the Times/Populus poll published today, with the most unusual and complicated outcome in British history. The local election results are likely to be similar to those often endured by governments in the midterm of a Parliament. The battle for the European Parliament, by contrast, verges on the anarchic. The two major parties will struggle to obtain 50 per cent of the votes cast, while those normally considered part of the “fringe”, particularly the UK Independence Party (UKIP) but also the Greens, may have a field day.

The novelty of this ballot and the volatile mood of voters means that a huge health warning has to be slapped on any prediction about the election. Populus has faithfully recorded the views of those who insist that they are certain to turn out and of those in the postal vote regions who contend that they have already mailed back their material. But both sets of numbers are sharply higher than those which occurred when the European Parliament was last contested five years ago. There is no way of telling whether those who have pledged to vote actually will or which political party will benefit or suffer from any “fib factor”. All that can be expected with confidence is that it will be an election night like no other.

As matters stand, the UKIP is likely to perform far better than in 1999 when it won 7 per cent of the votes cast on a dire turnout. It has shown a flair for publicity in this campaign, assisted by a degree of ineptitude from the Conservative Party. It would be wrong to argue that a ballot cast for the UKIP here is a “wasted vote”; the dubious charms of proportional representation mean that it is not. Those who sincerely wish to leave the EU are, of course, entitled to back a party that unambiguously favours that position.

Before doing so, though, they should ponder the paradox of this position. The enlargement of the EU (which the UKIP, curiously, opposed) has brought in a number of new members whose politicians and publics are profoundly wary of Brussels and sympathetic to British instincts. If there were a moment for those who are rightly frustrated about the EU to push for broadly supported reform, then this is surely it.

Michael Howard is already under internal pressure to alter policy emphasis even before the first ballots are counted. He is being advised to distance himself further from Tony Blair on Iraq (in effect, moving to the left) and to minimise the UKIP effect by being more sceptical on Europe (edging to the right). He should resist any such temptation. It would be a ludicrous overreaction to a short-term difficulty. It would also leave him with a stance neither as committed to the special relationship as it should be nor capable of constructive engagement in the EU. This would be to opt for an intellectual and political no man’s land. It is not a credible stance and he should not allow his personal commitment to the transatlantic partnership and reasoned wariness of the EU to be compromised so easily.

This is not, after all, a general election. Indeed, around 70 per cent of those planning to back one of the smaller parties this week admitted to Populus that their choices now would not be repeated in a Westminster contest. This is the statistic that all in the main parties, and, in particular, the Conservatives, should keep in mind when they react to what is destined to be a wild vote in weird circumstances. If not, there could be unfortunate consequences when the real polling day finally arrives.