The year? 1958, of course. Having chosen to stand aside from membership of the European Economic Community, the Conservative Government was preparing to campaign for re-election on Harold Macmillan’s slogan “You’ve never had it so good”.

The similarity with today is instructive. Rarely will a minister in Blair’s Government address economic issues without unfavourable reference to the state of the European economy, with some ministers showing relish in making this point. The implication is that the eurozone is not good enough for us to join them, but if they reach our high standards we might allow them to join us.

So if the attitudes then are similar to now, what can we learn from what happened next? The conclusions from the events of the 1960s are depressing for pro-Europeans.

Macmillan won the election. By 1961 he had decided to apply for membership, but was rebuffed by de Gaulle. De Gaulle’s second non to the Labour Government’s application in the late 1960s, meant that Britain did not join the EC until 1973, 15 years after it had been founded.

If history were to repeat itself, Britain would join the euro in 2014. But, of course, there are significant differences. It is unlikely that Britain’s application to join would be rejected by our European partners, though we would have to meet the convergence criteria. Some commentators think that Britain is likely soon to breach the 3 per cent limit on government borrowing.

On the other hand, Macmillan was not committed to holding a referendum on membership. Worries about the Government’s ability to change public opinion are one reason why Tony Blair may be put off from calling a referendum on the euro in the future.

In his 1961 pamphlet setting out the case in favour of Britain’s application, Macmillan wrote that “for Britain to stay out and isolate herself from the mainstream of European strength would, I believe, have very damaging results. There might be no immediate disaster, but we could not hope to go on exerting the same political influence”.

He was right. The mess that is the Common Agricultural Policy is a lasting testament to the folly of delaying our entry. With no British voice on this policy, it took a shape that does not benefit us and, once agreed, has proved extremely difficult to reform. The same applies to the Common Fisheries Policy.

It has been said that whether Britain joins the euro in 2005 or 2015 is irrelevant from the perspective of 2080. In fact, decisions made about engagement with Europe in the 1950s still profoundly affect us today.

Today there are important decisions being taken in Europe. As a full member of the EU, our voice is heard on the drafting of the new EU constitutional treaty. But outside the euro, our voice is already much weaker on issues such as reform of the Stability and Growth Pact and changes to the European Central Bank.

The economic costs were clear too. Between 1950 and 1973, our GDP per capita increased by 2.5 per cent per year, while France and Germany raced ahead with figures of 4.1 per cent and 5.0 per cent, respectively. German annual productivity growth between 1950 and 1973 was more than double Britain’s, but the figures are identical for 1973 to 1995.

The French and Germans are now having some economic difficulties, though Finland and Spain are doing as well as we are. There are clear signs that staying out of the euro is harming Britain’s economy. Foreign investment is way down, and we are missing out on rapidly rising trade within the eurozone. Long-term isolation would multiply these problems, and make today’s rosy predictions seem as Panglossian as those made in the 1950s.

There is no necessity that the tragic delays of 40 years ago should be farcically repeated in the first decades of the 21st century. But there is a risk that it could happen. If steps are not taken, there is a real chance that the pro- European nightmare of waiting until 2014 for euro entry could become reality. Despite having missed several opportunities, the Government still has it within its power to keep the period of delay short and minimise the costs.

It should start with making a more vigorous case for an EU constitutional treaty, and demonstrate how, in the words of the House of Lords European Select Committee, it shifts “the balance of power from the Commission to the member states”. The case for the euro must be built on a wider case for Europe.

In a note to the 1999 edition of This Blessed Plot, his seminal work on Britain’s place in Europe, Hugo Young wrote that he planned “a further edition, in due course, if and when sterling enters the euro, and the Plot can be said to be resolved”. Hugo’s tragic death means there will be no new edition and, sadly for those who share his convictions, the European question is still unfinished business.

Danny Alexander is the head of communications for Britain in Europe, the pro-euro campaign group

danny.alexander@britainineurope.org.uk

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