LABOUR is bracing itself for the loss of hundreds of seats and up to a dozen councils in the local government elections next month, blaming mid-term blues and the war in Iraq.

On Monday Ian McCartney, the new party chairman, will begin the party’s campaign in the 340 councils that are up for election in England and Scotland on May 1. But low turnout and second-term apathy are likely to lead to substantial Liberal Democrat gains at the expense of Labour.

The Lib Dems and the Tories also both intend to exploit the high council tax rises, averaging 13 per cent, which they will blame firmly on the Government.

More than 11,600 seats will be contested next month, nearly twice as many as last year, with key battles taking place in Labour inner-city heartlands in the North and the Midlands. It will be seen as a test of Iain Duncan Smith’s ability to hold on as Tory Leader and his party’s prospects of recovering before the next election. But it will also present the first national poll after Tony Blair’s decision to join the war in Iraq.

Minor parties and independent candidates are also likely to do well, with voters still disaffected with national politics and more interested in local issues. This could benefit the Greens, with their anti-war stance, but also the British National Party, which is fielding a record number of candidates in more than 200 seats.

Tony Travers, local government expert at the London School of Economics, said that Labour could lose 200 to 300 seats, the Tories will gain 150 to 200 seats and the Lib Dems will win a further 150 to 250 seats. He said that if Mr Duncan Smith is to have any real hope of staying leader he will need at least 150 gains.

Labour admits that it has decided to contest only 67 per cent of the seats because it cannot find enough willing and able candidates to put up in all councils. “All three main parties face a challenge this time in trying to find very solid candidates for 11,600 seats,” a Labour spokesman said.

Labour privately says that it could do worse than last year’s council elections, when the party suffered a net loss of nine councils and more than 320 seats. It concedes that it may struggle to hold North Tyneside, Trafford, North East Lincolnshire, East Staffordshire, Telford and the Wrekin and Birmingham.

The party intends to campaign on two main subjects: jobs in public services and antisocial behaviour. Ministers will spend the next three weeks highlighting the thousands of extra nurses, teachers and policemen that have been recruited. They will also promote the need to tackle graffiti, street litter, abandoned cars and yobbish behaviour.

Tory Central Office has put out mixed messages about possible gains. Theresa May, the party’s chairman, predicted 30 extra seats and backroom officials suggested 200 to 300.

Eric Pickles, the party’s local government spokesman, said “30 does not necessarily mean exactly 30”, while his aides talk about double-figure gains. Mr Pickles is adamant that the party will not be fighting on national issues but will focus on local community concerns.

The Tories are targeting Basildon, Worcester, Medway Town, Poole, Harrogate and Herefordshire and trying to hold Amber Valley and North Somerset.

The Lib Dems hope to make net gains without putting a figure on the number. Experts predict that anti-war Labour supporters could turn to the Lib Dems. The party will campaign on the council tax, which it has pledged to cut by £100 per household, and tuition fees, which it has promised to scrap. Its targets include York, Watford, Windsor and Maidenhead, Waverley, Restormel (Cornwall), Shepway and Torbay.

Ballot box facts

• 10,427 seats are being fought in 308 of the 387 English councils, all outside London. Of these 98 are Labour-controlled, 83 Tory and 24 Liberal Democrat
• Of the 308 councils — 40 unitary authorities, 36 metropolitan authorities and 232 districts — 177 will elect all council seats; the remainder have contests in only a third
• The Tories are defending 3,750 seats, Labour 3,367 and the Liberal Democrats 2,269
• The Tories are contesting 8,710 seats, Labour 6,836 and the Liberal Democrats 6,595

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