A new Populus poll undertaken for The Times last weekend shows that the favourable response to the Iraqi elections has had a significant impact on public attitudes. Most voters are now more optimistic about the country’s future and, therefore, believe it is right for British troops to leave.

The poll appears after Tony Blair’s prediction yesterday that France, Germany and other Nato members opposed to the war in Iraq would support a deal to train thousands more Iraqi police, paving the way for the withdrawal of British and US forces.

In evidence to the Commons Liaison Committee of senior MPs, he said he expected Nato members to agree to the package for training Iraqi security forces at a summit this month, which will be attended by President Bush. “I hope that will see some of the countries that haven’t been involved either in the conflict or its aftermath involved in that,” he said.

The Populus poll shows that two thirds of voters (66 per cent) say that, now elections have been held, “British troops should be withdrawn as soon as possible and Iraqis left to deal with their own security problems”. A quarter (24 per cent) disagree. Three quarters of Tory voters back the withdrawal of British troops. Somewhat unexpectedly, just 59 per cent of Liberal Democrat supporters, the most anti-war group, agree.

Back in October, a Populus poll found that nearly a half of voters (49 per cent) though that British troops should stay “in Iraq until it is a stable democracy”, while 42 per cent believed the troops should be “brought home as soon as possible even if the country is not stable”.

The key change is that more voters believe that, following the elections, Iraq is on course for stability. Nearly three fifths (58 per cent) say “it is now possible to imagine Iraq making the transition to become a stable democracy”, with 29 per cent disagreeing. This includes more than a half (52 per cent) of those who believe going to war was the wrong thing to do.

Three quarters (76 per cent) believe that “ordinary Iraqis can look forward to a better future than they had under Saddam Hussein”. This includes 68 per cent of those who oppose the war.

The Iraqi elections have only had a limited impact on attitudes to the war itself. The public is evenly split, 42 per cent on either side, on whether “holding the elections makes the decision to go to war with Iraq seem more justified”. The most positive group are Labour voters, who divide 49 to 34 per cent. The most negative group are Lib Dems, nearly three fifths of whom (58 per cent) do not agree.

Populus has been regularly asking a question about support for the war for nearly two years. The Iraqi elections have produced a positive shift. The number saying that military action was right has risen from 29 to 32 per cent over the past month, while those saying it was the wrong thing have fallen from 53 to 51 per cent, the lowest level since March last year. Net disapproval (right minus wrong thing) is now the lowest since last summer.

The shift has been largest among men and the middle classes. Labour voters are once again the only group among whom more think that military action was the right thing to do.

Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,518 adults aged over 18 by telephone between February 4 and 6.

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