Ewen McCallum, head of forecasting at the Met Office, told The Times that there was a 65 per cent chance that this winter would be significantly colder than average and urged action now. “For every degree below the winter average in the UK, there are 8,000 extra deaths, so it is critically important we act now to help the more vulnerable in society, especially as we are predicting lower-than-average temperatures this winter,” he said. Even in an average winter, 40,000 more people die than at other times of the year and the underlying cause for 80 per cent of these deaths is the cold.

“Our concern is that, since 1995, winters in the UK have been mild, so people have been lulled into a false sense of security thinking that this is now the norm and are not prepared to deal with severe cold spells,” Mr McCallum said.

The Government and local authority planners, including the NHS and the Highways Agency, have been put on amber alert. There is particular concern about two million vulnerable households that are living in “fuel poverty” — spending 10 per cent or more of their income on energy. Npower, the energy supplier, teamed up with Sir Ranulph Fiennes this week to alert pensioners and other vulnerable groups to the dangers. The elderly are urged to keep their homes heated to 18C (64F). At 16C there is decreased resistance to respiratory disease, which accounts for about a third of winter deaths. Hypothermia kills 500 people a year.

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