A new Populus poll for The Times, undertaken over the weekend, shows majority support for the retention of a British nuclear deterrent as long as other countries have nuclear weapons. The replacement of the current system is backed by 52 per cent and opposed by 43 per cent.

There are, however, big variations in public attitudes. Men back the decision by 64 to 33 per cent but women are opposed by 52 to 41 per cent. So there is a 31-point margin in favour among men but an 11-point margin against among women.

This reflects a gender gap about foreign policy and defence, notably over Iraq, where women have consistently been more hostile to the war then men. Labour voters are the only group of party supporters to oppose the decision, by 47 to 45 per cent. Tory voters, in line with their leadership, back the renewal of the deterrent by 64 to 35 per cent. Even Liberal Democrat voters are in favour, by 52 to 43 per cent, even though Sir Menzies Campbell, their leader, doubts whether a decision has to be taken now.

Despite a likely rebellion by a sizeable number of Labour MPs, the support of the Tory leadership means that Tony Blair should be have a comfortable majority when the Commons votes on the proposals in March. The narrowest support for the decision is among professionals and managers and unskilled manual workers.

Opposition to the Government’s decision is split among those (20 per cent), who supported Britain having a nuclear deterrent in the past but believe that it is no longer necessary for us to have nuclear weapons because the potential threat to our security is posed by terrorist groups and rogue states rather than by nuclear-armed superpowers; and those (23 per cent) who have never supported Britain having a nuclear deterrent.

Populus carried out interviews from December 8 to 10; for more details see www.populuslimited.com

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