Mark Thompson and the BBC allowed more than a week between the first speculation about big cutbacks at the Corporation and this morning to tell people what was planned. The result is that their message — that there would be fewer job losses and no important programmes would be affected — lacked credibility.

The promise is that there will be the same amount or more spending on BBC One peaktime, and also on BBC Two, but more repeats on BBC Two, and BBC Three, particularly of Spooks episodes from BBC One earlier. There might be a fifth episode of EastEnders — cheaper again, but hardly original.

There will also be a serious rationalisation in BBC News, with up to 490 jobs going — but again, apparently no reduction in quality from Today to Newsnight. Yet in contrast to the havoc wreaked among the creatives there will be little reduction in corporate overhead — although that was cut heavily two years ago.

Now either Mark Thompson, the BBC Director-General, and colleagues are being over-optimistic — and viewers will find that the BBC becomes less challenging and interesting, particularly in the early and late evenings — or the Corporation is already so over-resourced that it doesn't make any difference. The truth, probably is a mixture of the two — cutbacks will affect quality, but probably only alert viewers will notice much difference, at least until the next crisis comes.

Meanwhile, Mr Thompson faces a serious problem with morale. Although he emphasised that the BBC would cut about 1,800 jobs net, that is in fact closer to 2,800 jobs overall. A thousand new posts are being created, but a week of speculation and worry means that people will, rightly, focus on the gross figure, and heavy cuts in controversial areas outside London won't help sentiment. Unions are likely to call for a strike ballot, and it will be agreed, leaving a bruising period of industrial action in the run up to Christmas.

The BBC has long enjoyed above-inflation licence fee increases; now in real terms, after spending on digital switchover, the budget is down by 1.1 per cent a year for the next five years. That sounds severe, but the BBC gets guaranteed income of more than £3billion a year. And amid the cuts the Corporation is finding £300million to invest on new personalised online news and sports services. So it can invest.

The licence fee settlement was tough, but the strategy for dealing with it is broadly right. What is not clear is whether flagship services such as news should be hit so hard. And allowing the speculation about cuts and job losses to dribble out has allowed viewers and listeners to conclude the worst.

Editor's choice

• Are Glasvegas the new Oasis?
• Proms Podcast with Stephen Hough
• Vote for musical perfection