Gerard Baker: American view
Take a trip to New York and see the city from the air
President Bush was in Saudi Arabia at the weekend, trying to get his hosts to increase oil production to take some of the pressure off rising prices.
Ever willing to be seen to please their American friends, the helpful chaps at the House of Saud duly agreed to ramp up output by a few hundred thousand barrels a day. This, of course, is a drop in the tanker of Saudi, let alone global energy production, and to nobody's great surprise it had no effect whatsoever. The price of crude crept above $127 per barrel in London trading yesterday.
In economic terms, there's a not very polite term for what the President was doing which describes the futility and discomfort of performing a certain bodily function into a countervailing breeze.
But Mr Bush - an oilman after oil - knows this, too. His efforts were more of a political gesture than a meaningful policy initiative.
In political terms, inexorably rising oil prices are starting to generate something approaching panic in America. The Republicans, already battered by the weak economy and the seemingly intractable Iraq war, are ripe targets for yet more opprobrium for failing to rein-in oil companies as they heartlessly exploit the poor Americans who find themselves unable to drive their five-litre engined cars very far this summer.
The crunch from oil prices plays an important rhetorical role in Hillary Clinton's barely breathing presidential campaign. In her stump speeches to rapidly diminishing audiences, she never misses an opportunity to berate the oil companies - and their Republican friends in government.
Her economically illiterate idea for a gas tax holiday over the summer was predicated on these popular fears about rising energy costs, though one of the many problems with it was that it would probably have ended up channelling even more revenue to the oil companies because it is unlikely they would have passed on the whole tax reduction on to consumers.
Barack Obama has been marginally less demagogic, to be fair, but he can't resist sticking it to the heartless energy companies, either.
The President and most of his dwindling band of Republican brothers (though not, it should be said, the party's presidential candidate John McCain) pursue a similarly silly tack.
They'd have us believe that if only the United States would open up the Arctic to more oil exploration, prices would drop like a stone. In an election, this is all very well. But time is getting on and it is becoming ever more urgent that whoever wins in November drops the populist rhetoric and gets to grips with a couple of basic realities.
The first is that higher energy costs are here to stay. You don't have to buy Goldman Sachs's headline-grabbing forecast this month that crude will reach $200 a barrel.
But it would be foolish to try to deny that in the immediate future, anything we do now will not stop prices rising.
Oil is up by almost 30 per cent this year alone. That's not the fault of greedy energy companies, or that other current favourite, unscrupulous speculators. It is a simple fact of economic life in a world economy that is, in effect, experiencing a new industrial revolution among half its population.
Even in the event of a serious recession in much of the developed world, energy demand is not going to change much.
The second reality is that this is, in the end, at least in terms of the nexus of economics and energy policy, a Good Thing. It should force all of us in the West to redouble our efforts to diminish our dependence on oil. Fortunately, markets are quite effective at doing this. As we all know, the capitalist world - yes, even the US - is much more energy-efficient today than it was 40 years ago. For that we have the last great oil shock of the 1970s to thank.
A third reality is that, at least for the foreseeable future, these higher prices will have enormous implications for geopolitics.
It is a staple of all political debate in the US now that the American dependence on oil has led to staggeringly bad policy for decades towards the big oil producers. It has forced the US into bed with some unsavoury characters and has been the constant factor behind repeated and often baleful US interventions in the Middle East.
Now, in addition to the threats posed by an even more complicated Middle East, the US has to address the challenge of a rapidly enriching Russia, a country that shows every intention of rolling back democratic progress and using its energy wealth to create trouble for America and Western Europe wherever it can.
In the very near future, real, ingenious American leadership will be needed not to make pointless gestures towards the newly powerful energy producers but to ensure we don't turn our dependence on a scarce resource into political capitulation.
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((much more energy-efficient today than it was 40 years ago. great oil shock of the 1970s to thank)
We are less effecient today than we were in 1980. The reason is gas prices dropped to stop people investing in alternatives this caused the SUV to become wide spread and reducing MPG figures
keith, Chch, NZ
The price of crude has gone up 30% this year. The demand has not gone up 30%. This means it's not a supply - demand market.
This is a bubble created by people trading commodities futures.
When it pops watch out.
Jeff, Plantation, USA
Oil is a problem, but nowhere near as big a problem as the disastrous dollar policy being pursued by the Fed under Bernanke. Continually cutting interest rates in the face of rising commodity prices, while seeing no benefit in economic activity, is absolutely moronic. Ben is to blame.
Bob, Portage, IN, USA
The US has ridiculously bad infrastructure planning and implementation, the US dollar is weakening, and more people globally are consuming oil than ever before. That doesn't alter the fact that the oil companies are still making record profits, every-single-quarter. Not just the US they're fleecing.
Loriana, Tacoma, USA
from way down here on Main Street, we're all wondering why we are being squeezed to death by Bush' Saudi friends, while they use the cash to spread the Wahabi ideology in our countries - with virtual impunity.
David, Amsterdam, Netherlands
The only way to solve the problem is to reduce the demand. This means fewer people. We have to control the population. Then use what is left in a planned, responsible, sustainable manner.
Walter, Florida, USA
Walter, Melrose, USA
The price of oil is a supply and demand issue. The suppliers know how much is left in the tank and will want to ensure maximum return for as long as possible. Prices will not drop - once oil has been consumed it is gone forever. Get used to living in an oil depleted pre industrial civilisation.
John Rutledge, Hastings, New Zealand
People have an inherent bias towards believing that things return to normalcy - the complacency with which some assume the economic spiral will rebound is not healthy & Mr Baker is correct in suggesting that mere words and currency shuffling alone will not rectify the current situation
glenn schaefer, holbrook, USA
very good and well thought out article
Mark, Knoxville, USA
The only control we consumers have over this burgeoning energy crisis is conservation. Drive less, drive more slowly, in a smaller more efficient vehicle. Turn down the water heater, ease use of air conditioning, etc. No fun, but there is some satisfaction in taking the reins where we can.
Judy, Fairhope, USA
It is not a right to have cheap fuel. The UK tax take has always been higher and we have been willing to support that tax. We have allowed our society to develop a growing dependence on the car whereas Europe has an integrated transport of a quality we just dream of. We reep what we sow.
Richard, Germany,
The Tax Debate
Corporations may pay little tax, but basic rate tax payers are seeing a 50% increase in CGT rates and higher tax payers a 25% decrease in non-business assets. Forgive me if I no longer believe Labour's commitment to equity for ordinary voters.
Bob Lowe, Clynnogfawr,
When the West falls into recession who is going to buy all the exports from China? When Chinese factories cut back and oil demand falls the world oil price will fall. Cut back buying oil and what is left for the oil producers? They cann't eat it.
Robert, Worcester, UK
Solid article - I agree with the content that seems to echo the same thinking as the recent Goldman Sach's report on oil prices. Remember that passenger cars are one of many outlets for oil refined products - The others have yet to start on the long road towards fuel efficiency...
Paul, Chicago, USA
Putin is the greatest russian leader this century. He has safe gaurded russian oil and gas for the betterment of Russia. It is also in the interests of the west that Russia is a safe secure country from which oil and gas can flow, compare that with Iraq. P.S. Putin is democratically elected.
james mclean, falkirk, uk
Well said Gerard...for once I agree. If the USA had better policies, the rest of the West may have had a decent leader to follow. Alas no.
It is a staple of all political debate in the US now that the American dependence on oil has led to staggeringly bad policy for decades towards the big oil.
des, Perth, australia
Here is Detroit, rife with SUVs (I own a pickup truck myself that I use for work and work alone) I applaud the higher oil prices, even as I cringe at the pump. It's the only thing that will discourage the absolutely profligate use of gas-hogging vehicles and big maybe, push us back to trains!
Tom Stevens, Detroit, USA
Say hello to the electric car. This is the best and worst time for oil companies. Super profits now but at the price of driving away the consumer. If oil prices stay high, we will start to buy cheaper to run electric cars, even if they are slow and dull. And, by chance, we will be greener too
paddy gourlay, london,
Oil price TO YOU, THE END-USER reflects the relationship between supply and demand. So you can pay the producers or your government, but pay you will. Hence the right move EVEN FOR WE MOTORISTS is to INCREASE fuel tax.
But worry not. UK Chancellors always prefer the political, wrong choice.
Noel Falconer MEcon, Couiza, France
One of the main reasons for the oil price is the weakness of the us dollar.
You can,t blame exporting counries for charging more but if the fed raised intrest rates by 2% i fancy you would see the price rapidly come down.
bob, hants,
The increasing price of road fuel has highlighted the huge tax this government has been levying and spending the proceeds on useless ministerial initiatives and social engineering, instead of public transport. Most of the country now has no option but to continue using road fuel and paying heavily
David Nammory, Liverpool,
Why should Bush and his pals care? They're making a fortune from the oil price escalation.
george sign, nice, france
Price signal plus tax refunds. The US could add $1.20 to petrol, which could be refunded monthly, approx $50. In the last 12 months petrol consumption has fallen 2%. The US could keep raising petrol prices to $6-$7, and refund tax, switching to more fuel efficient cars/transport.
Hugo van Randwyck, London, UK
That triumphalism about America's problems. The Metropiltan elites are dining-out on what they see as uniquely her problems. It is a conceit. While the city dweller feels secure, cocooned with his transport options, Britain, ill, disabled, old and on the new rural estates, needs cheap fuel to exist.
Malcolm Turner, Alsager, England
There is a long way to go in the USA before pump prices for petrol and diesel reach European levels - even with California's $4 (US) gallon. People there ask how people in the UK cope with a $8 gallon and why there aren't riots. Good question !
David Thomas, Maidenhead, Berks UK
Of course the US will adapt to much less wasteful cars, but will the indigenous US auto industry survive? I doubt it. All this from the Iraq fiasco - Bush has a lot to answer for.
colin, Shrewsbury UK,
This problem is intractable and the feedback loops in all parts of the current economic reality are going to crash the global economy beyond recovery. It is the end and my money is on lots of ruins and very few people within a century. Homo sapien extinction could easily follow with climate change
kevin, Lincoln, UK
the major oil importers - US, EU, China, India and Japan - should combine to create a cartel. It could be called OPIC. Their combined political and military strength could end overnight the huge transfer of wealth taking place from the oil importers to oil exporters.
David, London,
Make speculators take delivery instead of the futures fiasco, where no one does, and you will see prices drop.
Frederick, London, UK
The cost of oil production was reported yesterday on one of the TV business channels to have gone up 30% over the last year due to oil companies having to find/ drill and take from more difficult wells plus the cost of equipment and labour.
unfortunately a world recession will be the result of this
Anton, Perth, Western Australia
It would seem pretty obvious to at least make an effort to determine the true potential of ANWR, for example, as well as other offshore areas.
If it's OK to drill and produce offshore Texas & Louisiana then why the "::" can't the same be done anywhere else prospective ?
Stan(expat), USA, USA
Mc Cain also wanted the tax holiday - try to be truthful. Did'nt the Republicans opppose every bill to impose higher fuel standards which might have led to less 5 litre cars? Obama opposed the tax holiday.
Will, Atlanta, USA
Economic forces are the great leveler and, notwithstanding the opposition of Bush and Mccain to Amtrak, the UnitedStates will be forced to resurrect inter city passnger rail on a large scale once it is acknowledged by it spoliticians that long distance motoring and air travel has become uneconomic.
Brian Eastwood, Petersburg , United States
In the short term, at least, the actual price of oil is not being driven by massively incremental production cost increases - therefore, the producers are benefitting. Oligopoly producers of commodities price at what the market will bear - note the rising price of iron ore into China each year.
Padraig, Perth, Australia