Gary Duncan: Economic view
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It has hurtled along in top gear for decades but at last it seems that America’s love affair with the automobile could be coming to the end of the road.
Even as oil prices have more than tripled since the early years of this decade, car-crazed Americans have remained driven by this passion. In every year for the past 2½ decades since records began, they have notched up ever more miles. And US motorists have ignored the soaring cost of fuel to carry on buying huge gas-guzzling vehicles with undiminished enthusiasm.
From 2002 to 2005, the proportion of US vehicle sales taken by so-called “sport utility vehicles”, the tank-like SUVs that have come to symbolise the American driver, has risen from 52 per cent to 55 per cent.
No more. Suddenly, these trends have come to a juddering halt. Startling figures highlighted by Ethan Harris, of Lehman Brothers, show that last year, for the first time since at least the early Eighties, the number of miles driven by Americans fell year-on-year – and fell sharply, dropping by about 4 per cent.
At the same time, sales of SUVs have stalled, falling by 24 per cent last month from their levels a year earlier.
Yet over the past few weeks and months a sudden and striking convergence of global trends and attitudes has begun to suggest that it is not only rich American SUV drivers, struggling to pay to fill up at the pumps, who are running out of road. Rather, the entire world seems to have arrived at some sort of economic turning point.
Until we reached what may come to be seen as an historic crossroads, a hungry world’s appetite for resources – whether oil, minerals, food or fresh water – seemed to stretch away to the horizon, like the dead-straight highways of the American Midwest. At the same time, the planet’s ability to meet this demand, despite some nagging anxieties, had long seemed capable of accelerating almost indefinitely to keep up.
No more. Abruptly, the world’s freewheeling, carefree (and careless) pattern of ever-rising consumption is being called into question as never before.
Last week, oil prices surged yet again on world markets, continuing their relentless rise as the cost of a barrel of crude shot up to what would once have seemed an almost unthinkable $139 a barrel. Yesterday, Iran’s representative to the Opec oil cartel predicted that soon crude would hit $150 a barrel. Goldman Sachs has sounded warnings over a potential “super-spike” to $200.
The inevitable consequence is growing angst for Western consumers and their governments. While the economies of the industrial West have proved remarkably resilient so far to the inexorable rise in the oil price, the haunting question is: at what point does the crude drama become a crisis? Just where is the tipping point?
Yet it is not just oil. Food and water, the most basic necessities of life so long taken for granted in the developed world, have thrust themselves on to the conference tables of the West’s leaders and policymakers.
Food – its short supply in the face of rapidly rising demand and its escalating cost – is suddenly a dominant theme in the global conversation. Last week, ministers and officials from around the world met in Rome to confront a looming world crisis after the era of cheap and plentiful food was effectively declared over in last month’s joint report from the United Nations and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Disquietingly, Robert Malthus, the 18th-century British economist, who famously, and wrongly, predicted that ever-rising population would lead to mass starvation, has forced his way back into vogue among a cadre of “neo-Malthusian” doom-mongers.
Even water is the subject of a torrent of concern. Last week a panel of leading global experts convened by Goldman Sachs in London to confront the “Top Five Risks” to global prosperity sounded the alert that catastrophic water shortages could prove an even bigger danger to the human race than depletion of energy supply and deficient food supplies.
Arrestingly, a Goldman Sachs report notes that demand for fresh water is doubling every 20 years and calls it “the petroleum for the next century”. Lord Stern of Brentford, the former World Bank chief economist, argues that fresh water has mistakenly been treated as a renewable resource and exploited without restraint because it has been mispriced.
All of this is very scary stuff indeed. We seem, all of a sudden, to have hit a watershed. From a rosy, optimistic era of seemingly limitless potential and boundless appetites, the world seems to be entering a grim new age of scarcity.
That we have reached some sort of defining moment is only emphasised by the fact that even hard-nosed central bankers, not generally noted for their sandal-wearing, hippy environmentalism, think so.
Jean-Claude Trichet, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), told a conference in Barcelona last week: “From a world of seemingly unlimited resources, mankind is gradually accustoming itself to the Earth as a limited, crowded and finite space, with limited resources for extraction and a narrowing capacity for waste disposal of pollution.”
Mr Trichet argued that the economics of this new world were “increasingly pushing at the boundaries of development” and required new thinking.
Coming from a central bank governor, these are pretty remarkable comments. The daunting challenges that this far from brave new world will confront were only underlined last week by Mr Trichet’s warning that the inflationary repercussions of rising oil prices could force the ECB to raise interest rates next month, even as eurozone growth is faltering. Similarly hawkish signals from the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve rammed home the point.
Far more broadly, it is clear that in the new era we are entering it is scarcity that will become the linchpin of global trends in economics, politics, diplomacy and security, for decades to come. It is scarcity and the global struggle for finite resources that will shape world events as never before. This may not be pretty – and economics will be at the centre for, fundamentally, economics is about how we divide and allocate scarce resources among ourselves.
As Mr Trichet hinted, we are only now beginning to glimpse the trials that lie ahead, but as they become clearer, the premium on policymakers taking tough and wise decisions will rise as sharply as the prices of resources. We must hope that our leaders can grasp these challenges before we all run out of road.
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Notwithstanding defensive comments, the US is an exceptionally proflgate user/waster of energy. The facts are clear. Some minor effort at economising would soon bring down the oil price as the US is also the biggest user. Not too tough, is it? Wouldn't dent the American Dream too much, either.
Colin, shrewsbury,
Consumption not the problem by consumption driven by debt
Resources will not be used efficiently unless discount rates include sufficient risk premium
Investment would then decline to a level unacceptable to politicians
so we have to rely on correction by breaking bubble
Dr Alister McFarquhar, Cambridge, uk
If you live in a western country and have access to good education then there has never been a better time to be alive. Only those people who live in the third world should be pessimistic as they will have to compete for space and resources with another 3 billion or so people in the next 50 years.
David Lea-Smith, Edinburgh, U.K.
Here in Florida, entire cities were built during the 1990s with no provision for public transit while inter-city rail transit was blocked by Governor Jeb Bush.
Meanwhile, the prevalence of large personal vehicles on the streets led to an arms race--no one wanted to be mini among the SUVs.
D Martin, Vero Beach, USA
I'm moving to Australia...heaps of resources, heaps of LPG, coal, uranium and almost any other resource you can name. Its probably the only western country that will get rich beyond its wildest dreams from all of what is to come.
Michael, Londpn, UK
For those of you who believe that we can easily exploit tar sands and oil shales, go out to the street and look at the blacktop/tarmac. That's what folks are talking about exploiting. Unlike easy to pump oil, this has to be mined and processed at great cost in natural resources & energy.
Charles Sontag, Binghamton, United States
Less that Americans are car-crazed, more that our public transport is terrible and we HAVE to travel to work to meet our financial obligations. The UK is six times more population-dense than the US and has extensive rail; of course you can drive less. Less name calling, more solution finding, ta.
E.E., NY, London,
The American economy is shifting, as it often does every 10-20 years, after years of slowly rising energy prices, new finds in the American Midwest show that the US has a personal bank of 1.7 trillion barrels stretching from northern Utah, to the Dakota's. This will be tapped in the next 20 years.
Scott, Hesperia, USA
Gary's article is a brilliant and brief study of growth, limits, and delayed response. A new kind of economics may be part of the solution as we reach the planet's limits to growth. But we will also need to stop population growth and individual expectations of consumption.
Jesus Pascual, Seville, Spain
Tian Qingyou suggests that "If every country is rationed with oil for the number of people each country has, perhaps it is a solution". Perhaps this is because China has over one billion people and would therefore qualify for more oil? The US needs more than China smaller pop. or not and will get it
Thucydides, Oxford, UK
We're at peak oil production, while there may be many years of oil left production will not increase, no big finds = greater cost, less profit + therefore less investment. Limited supply leads to dramatic cost increases, with small increases in demand, price is limited by the second highest bidder
Matt Bleasdale, Leicester,
I trade futures privately and I can assure anyone it's not gambling!
John, London,
Well, we are hearing from central bankers what people with foresight (environmentalists) have been telling us for decades.
The only difference is that that if a message from concerned do-gooders is easy to ignore, but it carries weight coming from the market.
We'll solve the scarcity, at a price.
Golodh, London, UK
The $11 spike was caused by news: unemployment and comments in the middle East. Retracement now means it's back down. Same with the dollar spiking down. It's now 'retraced' 100% to where it was before the news, and after a few more hours, will proceed to new highs.
No panic, please!
John, London,
There is no need for the pessimism.
This is an exciting time when people expore the alternatives to oil and have the opportunities to make vast sums of money doing so. Also, we can re-claim our streets for walking, cycling and socialising on.
Excellent, more business and better lives.
sam, carlisle, uk
Anyone who doesn't understand the connection between oil and population should ask what commodity sustained the so called green revolution, and the pharmecutical industry. Not to mention the consumer society.
C Smith, Norwich, UK
Some people seem to think that cheap oil has created an overpopulated world. Now, hang on, overpopulation is a problem in third world countires. In the western world where we have benefitted from "cheap" oil, we no longer produce enough children to sustain our own populations.
htp, Llandudno, Wales
Malthus wasn't wrong. His timing was a couple of centuries out as he didn't forsee the impact of fossil fuels.
David, London,
Car crazed Americans, car crazed Brits!? There are 300m people in America, only 64m in UK. American engines are regularly over 4 litres, funny really I often notice how small cars in the UK are by comparison!
Roy, Moscow,
The capital markets no longer interested in profit. They only invest in a profit margin that will increase. They equate profit reduction with business loss and the business model supporting this is untenable. Until someone sacks the futures gamblers we won't see the profits just betting losses.
KR, Stockport,
We have managed our problems in the past - and we will in the future.
High prices stop waste and missmanagement. Dino-cars will disappeare, recycling-effords will bring good profits, investing in better technology will bring new jobs.
Peter Vernunft, Berlin, Germany
Fossile oil will eventually be run out and the only way out is that the whole world works together to find alternatives in a not very distant future. If every country is rationed with oil for the number of people each country has, perhaps it is a solution for the time being in hacking down oil price
Tian Qingyou, Tianjin,
The current (and short term future) price of oil is a bubble. When it is pricked we will have a new crisis; that of the banks and investment vehicles who invested billions speculating in it and lost out - again.
figurewizard, Petersfield, UK
A lifetime oilman tells me that there is no actual shortage of oil - "enough for present and predicted demand for 300 years."
Speculation is principally to blame for the current price spike.
Americans at $4 a gallon : think how we cope here in the UK at double that thanks to ruinous taxes!!
J B King, Christchurch, Hants UK
There is no shortage of oil. There is plenty of heavy oil around, but no refineries. The last one built in America was in the 1970's. The face to face unregulated trading in futures by - guess who? - the banks are the cause of this bubble.
Make debts from unregulated trading unenforceable debt
David Nammory, Liverpool,
Coal converted to oil, at huge cost, will last less than 100 years.
Tar sands etc. are hugely resource hungry to oilify.
There is no more cheap energy with the versatility of oil.
We are too many humans (thanks to cheap oil), and we won't face reality.
War for oil is happening; expect a lot more.
C Smith, Norwich, UK
The problem with fighting a war over oil is the fragility of the extraction infrastructure. Given the cheap oil is about gone it may well be prohibitive in cost terms to rebuild extensive infrastructure very soon. This is not a civilization survivable scenario using war or diplomacy - tough one!
kevin, Lincoln, UK
as a former Clinton supporter, I, like most dems will now offer full support to Obama.To the Obama camp consider the following : you can run a clean campaign no matter what is thrown at you. You only have to convince every dem and indep to back you. Let the reds look sleazy, be above their dirt!
evelyn chamblee, morgan hill, america
The Bakken field in the Rockies has been estimated to contain 400 billion barrels with an additional 150 billion barrels available on our continental shelf. When we reduce our crude imports it will allow the expanding economies to take off with cheap oil to fuel the growth
stu dragon, Sidney, Montana, USA
Save a lot of money and stop child/family allowances. An overpopulated world cannot continue to produce children as they are doing now and for the last decade, Youwant children? You pay for them, schools, health services etc.
M Wilson, Bidache, france
Oh those crazy Americans Gary! They just love their cars... Of course the UK is full of sensible cyclists, no car problem there.
I don't see many hybrids or electric cars in Britain and unleaded fuel was introduced decades ahead of the UK. Spare the pompous lectures.
charlie, los angeles, usa, expat
to I. Kelly, Toledo, Oregon, USA
Petrol in the UK costs 2.5 times what it costs in th US so arguably we do have far fewer car crazies.
Equally though this article does seem a little excessive on the negativity
PS the world has plenty of coal left.
Russ, High Wycombe, UK
We are slaves to Capitalism, yet economic growth must soon reverse. In a world where a minority have far too much luxury, a majority too little, the future means one thing only:
WAR.
USA is still the richest country and by far the mightiest.
Cameron must be very nice to Obama and McCain!
Harlan Leyside, Basildon, England
The price of oil is artificial, driven by speculators.
OPEC states the supply line is full no more oil is needed.
If the margin to buy contracts is increased from 7% to 70% the price will drop immediately.
With ENRON we had blackouts and high prices.
ENRON gone no problem.
Oil same STORY
Alex Hogg, san diego, usa
What a ridiculous doom and gloom article.
Innovation and progress are over.
Time to polish up the old horse harness and buggy. Bring back ocean sailing ships and steam engines. Oh, wait they use coal and we're running out of that.
Car crazed Americans. How original .
No car crazies in the UK.
I. Kelly, Toledo, Oregon, USA
Since 2001, price of oil has increased 12 fold ($20 to $240), doubling in last year alone.
World oil consumption has increased by 20% in that period(+0.2 demand vs. 12 fold price rise).
What happened to the law of "supply and demand"?
Have supplies dwindled by 12 fold ?
J.J., California, USA
As I remember History 101, wars have been waged over scare resources.
JD, Honolulu, USA
Economic pain at a personal level is about the only thing that will bring home to US-based US citizens the folly of their government's domestic and foreign policies. So suck it up, guys.
Andrew Milner, Karuizawa, Japan