Irwin Stelzer
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This is the summer of our discontent. Only 14% of Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the United States, the lowest figure recorded by Gallup’s pollsters since they began asking that question almost 15 years ago. Consumer confidence is at its lowest level in 28 years, according to the respected Reuters/ University of Michigan survey. And not many Americans are expecting things to improve soon. “Consumers’ economic outlook is so bleak that the Expectations Index has reached a new all-time low,” reports the Conference Board. In part this pervasive gloom is due to petrol prices that have passed the $4-per-gallon (about 53p a litre) level. In part it is the result of the squeeze soaring food prices are putting on consumers’ wallets.
No good to try to escape the gloom by taking a quick break. Hop in your car, and soon you are pumping $4-plus petrol into the tank of a vehicle designed more for safety and comfort than for fuel efficiency. Try to get on a plane, and you find most flights are full, fares are up, and your Airmiles are virtually useless as the number of seats allocated to freebies shrinks. Which might explain why sales of flat-screen television sets at Wal-Mart increased by double digits in June: staying home is an increasingly attractive alternative.
This only applies, however, if you live in a neighbourhood where for-sale signs aren’t festooning the lawns. Not only are home sales and house prices down and still declining, and inventories of unsold houses and mortgage foreclosures up, but the few families willing to buy houses are finding that their once-friendly lender is not delighted to see them.
The proud new owners of those flat-screen TVs will have to stay away from the 24-hour financial-news channels if they are to find solace in their new acquisition. Share prices are falling, earnings expectations are being lowered, financial-sector firms continue to scramble for new capital to offset write-downs of loans gone sour, and the job market continues to deteriorate.
Continuing claims for unemployment compensation — those lasting more than one week — hit a four-and-a-half- year high early this month, and the number of people unemployed for at least 26 weeks is up 37% this year.
In this atmosphere it is difficult for the shreds of good news to penetrate the gloom. The International Council of Shopping Centers reported that sales at stores open at least a year (“same-store sales” in the jargon of the trade) rose by 4.3% last month, with Wal-Mart recording a 5.8% jump, its largest in four years. Since June is the second- most-important month for retailers — summer stock is cleared to make room for back-to-school items — this should be unalloyed good news.
It isn’t. Pessimists argue that the sales increase results from a combination of the $86 billion tax-rebate cheques from a programme due to end this week, higher prices of food and petrol, discounts on clothing and electronic goods, and that old favourite of retail analysts, the weather — warmer than usual and therefore good for getting summer clothes off the racks and into consumers’ closets. Besides, much of the stuff that consumers buy in the flourishing discount stores comes from overseas, and so directly provides no jobs for American workers.
The two most powerful forces underlying almost all the economy’s problems are the price of oil and the condition of the financial sector. Bring oil prices down, and share prices will rise; revive the financial sector so that credit is again available to businesses and homebuyers, and the economy will revive. Unfortunately, it is not easy to forecast either of those important drivers of the economy.
The best we can say about the outlook for the price of oil is that in the short run it will continue to be affected by geopolitical events. An Israeli decision not to live under the threat of a nuclear attack by Iran, or President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s test-firing of a few Iranian missiles, can cause a temporary spurt in prices. In the longer run we are reduced to guessing about the balance of supply and demand. In a free market, higher prices would cause an increase in exploration and, eventually, available supply, while “demand destruction” — as high prices induce Americans and others to drive less, heat less and cool less — will ease demand. But the Opec cartel is capable of curtailing the amount of crude it allows on the market, which might offset the beneficent effect of increased non-Opec supplies and an easing of demand in developed countries.
The eventual outlook for the financial- services sector is somewhat easier to predict. Two of the biggest players, mortgage lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have been under severe pressure, their shares down over 80% from last year and a government takeover being mooted. Investors worry that these government-chartered, shareholder-owned entities will be hit harder by defaults and that they will be forced to raise new capital on unfavourable terms. Even if those worries are realised, Treasury secretary Hank Paulson has made it clear that Fannie and Freddie “are working through this challenging period . . . [and] are adequately capitalised”.
Meanwhile, banks need to deleverage — raise more equity capital relative to their debt — to make up for write-offs of bad debts. Paulson said: “Much has been accomplished. Our financial institutions are repricing risk, deleveraging, recognising losses, raising capital and improving their financial position.” But he won’t attempt to guess when the recovery will be completed, and the credit spigots turned on.
Market analysts are guessing that share prices of banks will fall further, before an eventual recovery at the end of 2009.
That makes it unlikely that at this time next year we will be experiencing the “glorious summer” celebrated by Richard III, with all the gloom- producing clouds by then “in the deep bosom of the ocean buried”. But we might just have a merry Christmas. Or at least a less gloomy one.
Irwin Stelzer is a business adviser and director of economic policy studies at the Hudson Institute
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If only 14% agree with the way things are happening in the US, then democracy is a non thing in the US. Government actions supposed to reflect the wishes of the populance. In the US a 14% rating suggests otherwise. Government sytems have obviously become outdated and in need of change in the US of A
Jim Wills, Brisbane, Australia
will, grimsby - There is no 1 pure working "ism".Every country uses whatever ism that works. The UK for example is theoretically a social democratic state as can be seen by its huge investment in its welfare system. So just cos its got social concerns for its people we can't say that its socialism.
Glynn , Kingston,
Bobby, London - You're wrong there. UK and US cannot be coupled. As Ian said, US still has other cards to play outside the financial and, the welfare system that the UK has. Unfortunately our economy is totally non-regenerative constantly relying on slicing up whatever's left into thinner slices.
Glynn , Kingston,
The market will fix all. !!!!!
Yeah right.
The market caused it all.
Frankie, Sydney, Australia
Bobby London,
The US economy is rather less dependent upon the Financial sector, as a driver of the whole economy, than the UK. SImilar for Real Estate.
That's why we are not seeing negative GDP in the US. The US economy outside these two sectors is doing relatively well.
Ian, Madison, USA
will, grimsby, uk - Have you ever been to Cuba and spoken to the people there. They are generally pretty happy, and the fact they have not been screwed by the capitalist consumerism lie like the rest of the western world is to their benefit. Consuming is not progress nor is it happiness, its a lie!
Lloyd, uk,
4$ petrol is heaven compared with our 10$ plus. Also the FED will always reduce interest rates to save the day which is more than can be said for the BOE. I fear for us in the UK rather than our American friends.
john, milton keynes,
Roger, Weymouth, England
Never catch a falling knife...
Philip Robinson, London, England
Clive , what the hell does a "low carb society built on a socialist model " mean ?
Consumption crosses the political divide.
A low carbon society is a personal one and should not come with a political badge attached .
" Ask not what your country can do for you " etc.
Nick Dixon, Sutton Coldfield, England
The US and the UK are now economies driven by the financial sector. Through finance buying and selling residential homes had become an acceptable way to make a living. No real work involved.
The US and UK economies deserve the recession they are about to get.
Bobby, London, UK
Er, "Bring oil prices down.....". Well that involves either reducing demand or increasing supply. The latter ain't going to happen in the quantities needed and it seems a folly to base the entire world economy on something that's only got 20-30 years (shrinking) supply left
Richard, Bexhill, UK
Now the time has come the US to abolish the system which PRIVATE banks (All Federal Reserve Banks, and especially Bank of New York) managing the all banking system and money printing. Learn something from the old countries in Europe.
yanko, st galen, CH
Clive stringer- have you no concept of history- we tried socialism-it was an abject failure. let the greedy flee? So people who employee people, you would encourage them to leave the country and take their jobs with them?
why dont you flee to cuba and see how much of a utopia it actually is?
will, grimsby, uk
all this talk of doom and gloom, let us do what we always have done in times of hardship, batten down the hatches, tighten our belts and ride out the storm. its happened before and will again.
johnse, bedford, england
The US and UK economies remind me very strongly of the Monty Python sketch, "Mr Creosote". Just one more teeny After-Eight mint, Mr. Bush, Mr. Brown?
Clive, Monterrey, Mexico
It is not the price of oil the needs to come down, but the consumption of this product. Polution from oil is destroying the planet. The price of oil does not create carbon polution.
Jim Wills, Brisbane, Australia
<i> Now is the time to start building a low carb society on a socialist model, if the greedy want to flee then good riddance.
Clive Stringer, Eggesford, England</i>
if the greedy flee you wont have anything to Socialize now will you.
alex seymour, haywards heath, United Kingdom
All rather head in the sand, we are deluding ourselves if we think that oil prices will come back. Supply, despite what is said by the industry is behind demand, and incase you missed it "they are not making anymore". Alternative energy? Read some Newtonian physics, its over for our current economy.
Nick, Wellington, New Zealand
This whole mess has been caused by the too cheap credit provided by the Federal Reserve. Untill the FD is abolished these issues will keep coming back over and over.
The problem has always been the oversupply of money. Hopefully we'll get an acknowledgement of that at some point.
Jeremiah1974, London,
To get condidence back into the financial sector requires the managers and directors of that sector to demonstrate competence. The Credit Crunch arose from their manifest incompetence. Greed we accept as the nature of the beast but it has to be accompanied by knowlwedge and skill.
Come on lads!
Stephen Green, Correns, France
Basically the US & UK are overspent and need to start paying back - not looking for credit lines to continue unsustainable consumption.
What an economic mess the political & financial establishment have got everyone into. However, more serious is the social and political fallout that will result
Steve Marchant, Newton Abbot, UK
Gordon Brown effectively controls the price of oil in the UK through taxation just as much as the Saudis. In fact, more so.
D Longmire, London, UK
I agree with Peter of Miami. Only thing is the greed tap has been on full for a long time, and we need more than just a short burst of the despair tap to restore the balance. The policy of trying to cure a man fat with debt by offering him another chocolate (more debt) never works in the long run
Hamish, Melbourne,
I wish l had some spare cash, Bank shares are at very low
valuations and could be worth a punt.
Roger, Weymouth, England
We are going to suffer this torture til at least Jan 2009-new president- since noone even merely criticises the jews for saying they are going to attack Iran! and bush, of the oil connections, lets it be known he has given them carte blanche
john , whitehaven, uk
$147 per barrel and it still sells. The problem is not with the producers but with the consumers. The first step towards a cure is to admit you have an addiction. Now is the time to start building a low carb society on a socialist model, if the greedy want to flee then good riddance.
Clive Stringer, Eggesford, England
all wishful thinking, with a nice little war in the Middle East the Sky is the limit for oil, and the image of the 'West' will be in tatters for good
Heinz Geyer, London,
Not so long ago the talk was of "Irrational Exhuberance" and trees that would grow to the sky. Markets fluctuate. The mob swings between greed an dispair, but through it all the trend of mankind is ever upwards. The sun will shine again.
peter, miami, usa
Petrol 4$ a gallon and a hand out from the treasury to every tax payer? That would be wonderful in Britain. You don't know how lucky you Americans are. Here GORDO's spent it all and can only think of increasing taxes - 10% tax band gone, vehicle tax up - retrospectively - etc etc. IT'S DOOM
David Nammory, Liverpool,
We are paying over three times this amount in Europe........I wish we were still only paying $4/Gallon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
JB, London, UK
Oh yes, but simpler said than done!
hall, Sheffield,
He who controls the oil price controls inflation & interest rates. Rank manipulation of oil supply, storage, distribution, inventories, projections by investment banks and hedge funds is bankrupting non producing countries. Meanwhile the Saudis build and power indoor ski resorts in the desert
Will, Lincoln, UK
Address the oil price by reducing money supply, you hurt finance and the economy. Address the financial industry by increasing the money supply, the oil price continues to rise. There is no easy solution to this crisis. Economies need to take some pain for this mother of all credit/debt binges.
Hamish, Melbourne,
$4/gallon is cheap. You don't know how lucky you are.
J Raven, christchurch, new zealand
In the 18th century it would have been quite simple. Important politicians would have been impeached, and many citizens who had stolen millions would have been executed or exiled. Society seems to think now that what happens is an act of God. Who is responsible for bad governance of the last decade
Brian Lewis, Manila, Philippines
Oil is going up again - there's some minor conflagration in the Middle East brewing. These are not the facts you want. Go back to sleep.
kevin, Lincoln, UK