that's good news!

riccardo, brussels,

I am horrified to learn that only 63% of houses are included in the Halifax house price index.Surely in order to calculate an accurate price you must include all the data.Mind you,the CPI only seems to include things that are falling in price that people only buy every few years,if at all.

Stephen Hulton, eure, france

According to Bank of England figures, only 5% of UK mortgage borrowers have less than 20% equity in their property.

So it's a little hard to see how a price fall of 15% would cause negative equity for 10% of borrowers.

Many analysts now attempting to forecast the direction of the property market could usefully bone up on the facts.

Another useful statistic to remember is that around 37% of homeowners have no mortgage at all, so they are not included in the house price figures published by the Halifax and the Nationwide.

Maggie , St Leonards on Sea,

Proprerty has been seen as the AAA investment to the uk people for the last 10yrs. The strength of increases has led to people withdrawing equity (made easy by ignorant lenders) and using the money to fund a lifestyle they could ill afford.

First time buyers were priced out of the market and replaced by Buy-to-Letter's.
Now neither of these types, wanting to purchase, have enough deposit to suit the banks requirements, so, no one is creating the chain.

Simple supply and demand, house prices will fall until affordability is reached. Gordon's plan to prop up the market will only making the bubble a larger bubble that bursts....

Tim, Rayleigh, Essex,

The astronomical unsustainable rise in house prices has been the major driver behind a large proportion of the general economic growth in the UK , ask my friend who recently remortgaged his 2 bedroom house to buy an X5!!.....falling house prices are the tip of the iceberg that will sink the massive titanic ship of consumer greed in the UK.

Lys, Ten, south

Mark in Barbados,

I assume you mean repossession rather than foreclosure. I'm not sure what the situation is in Barbados, but here in the UK they are very different things.

Repossession is what happens when you fall behind in your mortgage.

Foreclosure is what a court can order if you've acted fraudulently, and has much higher penalties.

The crash of 1989-1994 was caused by a lack of buyers (triggered with changes in the tax law that meant that a lot of people had tried to buy before August 1989.)

In this crash, there seem to be a lot of hopeful buyers, but a real shortage of lenders. Hopefully, the Bank of England's Bond issue may help the MBS-based lenders to start offering mortgages again.

Mark Harrison, Maidenbwer, West Sussex

15% from when? January? Today? and how can something 'crash' over two years?? the truth is that no one really knows how much they will fall (they haven't fallen much round here at all) and that there is no such thing as an average house anyway. My memories of the last time of negative equity were those who just rode out the storm were largely unaffected as prices went into orbit after - and as we all know history repeats itself, and this should be no different. Those of us 'who live at home' - don't panic and watch from afar, and those who tried to make money, great if you have - but its a gamble like anything else.

Richard, Holmfirth,

The only miracle about Gordon's economy is the massive amount of greedy stupid peope (there are lots in the UK lets face it) who fell for the lie that property (read mortgage debt) is a good investment. No you fools, it's a classic pyramid scheme, and you're stuck at the bottom which rising mortgage costs on a falling asset. Enjoy, you greedy fools.

Will Hicks, London, UK

Lots of people are upset knowing their home may fall in value and become a negative equity. In my experience, lots of my acquintances mortgaged their homes up to the hilt not necessarily to improve their home and up the value but to pay for exotic holidays; wide-screen TV's; new wardrobes etc. and now feel hard-done by as they never thought about repaying this 'free' money. Financial advisors were/are as bad as Loan-sharks but they fell for it.

I think that when you are clever and earn enough to afford a mortgage and buy a house in the first place, you cannot expect to re-mortgage and bury your head in the sand when it comes to consequences of ones excesses. Again, not everyone is like this but I do know so many people who have throdden this path and are now facing difficulty. Sad but hopefully nothing like what happened to friends turned homeless because their homes being repossesed in the nineties

LT, Warminster, UK

The article doesn't say but do these figures just come from mortgages going into negative equity or doe sit also take into account the 100% + products that have loans tied in with them as well so the buyer doesn't have to pay deposit.

With these products the buyer is straight into negative equity due to the charges involved in the products.

Ben, Leeds,

For Mark in Barbados - you'll start to feel the effect too when all the tourists stop arriving.

Al, Manchester,

Obviously Gordon has to say that all is well, whether he believes it or not. I guess even he is not daft enough to believe his own propaganda, and it's obvious to all that the situation is getting close to critical. There are so many negative factors in the UK economy, starting with the balance of payments and running past our £1.4tn personal debt level. Inflation is out of control and the banks have been especially greedy and stupid in forgetting prudent lending rules. National borrowings are at a high level, the Euro is shortly to be at parity with the Pound and taxation is truly appalling - if you pay, that is - many pay only VAT and council tax. Getting out of this self-inflicted situation will take some skill, and that is just what we do not have in our leadership

Colin, shrewsbury,

The real problem is a lack of immigration. People shoul have the freedom to live and work where they please. I happened to born in the UK, but should have no more rights to live nad work here, or any where else. To argue otherwise is to suggest that I am better, or more deserving than other humans born in other parts of the world. I can promise that I am not.

Daniel, grimsby, lincolnshire

You state that "in the early 1990s, house prices fell by 10.6 per cent over a prolonged period". According to the Nationwide Index, between 1989 and 1992 property prices in Britain fell by 20.1% and then remained at this same low level until 1995. Every property crash is different but my recollection is that in the early 1990's at least purchasers could get a mortgage. This time round mortgages are going to be in very short supply. No-one knows how big the crash is going to be. My guess is that if properties are 30% overvalued then the fall in property prices will be nearer 40%: double that of the early 1990's. In booms and busts the pendulum always swings too far.

Alan Gold, London,

Ok, let put some things together. In two years time:

1- house prices may be 15-20%% lower in GBP terms;
2- compounded inflation could amount to 7-10%;
3 the pound could be 30% cheaper than in 2007

Thanks God it is time to rebalance the house price ratios in our economy with other countries and the past trends.

Do you think the above scenario is unlikely to happen? Well, just look what happened in the US in the last 12 months in comparison to the EU.

Crazy investors please shy away from the UK and let normal families to be repriced in the natural society. There are many other countries where to invest your tax-free money.

Estate agents, now make the falling of the system quick to make the market interesting for the bulk of need-to-be buyer;

Government, please do not bail out banks but help FTB that really need to reinforce the base of the pyramid;

Families, hold on for 18 months. That should be enough to eliminate the frofth and select long term players.

Thanks

Matteo, london, uk

Of course house prices are going to fall as first timers cant get on the ladder. However negative equity doesnt make a difference to your repayments. It only matters if you need to sell. If you buy a home for yourself and for life i guarnatee your home will be worth more in 25 years!

john, bath, uk

Ian from London.

Don't count your chickens too soon.

The government is actively trying to suport inflated prices to shore up their popularity in the polls. Remember, by keeping the population subversant to high debt gives socialist governments total control of their lives!.

Don't rule out cheap and easily available credit, paid for by British taxpayers.

Gareth Jones, Dusseldorf, Germany

Agree with James from Leeds.

All these articles do is drive down confidence and cause panic. I have recently applied for a mortgage and although the deals are not as good as last year they are there. I have had no real issues with selling my poperty and am not concerned about a house price crash......come on the media stop the doom mongering before we all talk ourselves into a bad place.

Adam, London, UK

The moral of the story is that a mortgage is a loan to purchase a property and that is all it is. It should not be a bottomless barrel for those who wish to keep on borrowing to finance other spending. As with the last housing crash, most negative equity will be the fault of those who extended their mortgages, rather than paying them off.

Paul, Coventry,

Why would house prices fall by just 10% this year, and only 5% next year ?. These figures seem quite bullish to me.

Anthony, London, UK

I couldn't care less if property prices collapse in the UK. I am just about to emigrate!!!!!!!!!!!!

bob, crawley,

It's a good thing is this house-price crash. Bring it on I say and let first-time buyers back into the market and allow folk like myself to trade upwards without the fear of getting out of our financial depth.

jon, derby, uk

You know when every Tom, Dick and Harry in the country invests in property believing they will be property millionaires that it is going to go awfully wrong.

Property is well overvalued and likely to fall back to around 3.5 times salary.

Its not doom and gloom, its common sense. Traditional lower prices benefit families.

Here in West London there are luxury flats selling for 20% less in 4 months and thats before mortgage tightening really kicked in.

Gavin, West London,

Interesting we had 17% price falls in April 2007 in our art of Shropshire, Now the decrease is much higher in 2008

Large houses have been static for a long time. So much so you would be told not to put it on the market.

Nicholas Iles, Oswestry, United Kingdom

What you have to do is move to Barbados!

Mark Kent, Christ Church, Barbados

People who bought houses at the top before the last housing price downturn still lived to see them rise during the present upturn. Should the present market decline to wharever level it will eventually turn upwards again and in time people will wonder what all the crying was about.

To those who want to buy and can afford to do so then buy houses are for living in and bringing up your family not making money out of.

Dave, Mold, Flintshire

This doesn't mention likely foreclosure rates; once the mortages can be serviced by the property owner this really will only effect 'perceived' wealth and not actual wealth...everyone likes to know their biggest asset is worth more than they paid for it, but unless planning to sell it really doesn't matter.

Mark Kent, Christ Church, Barbados

I earn over £250,000 a year, yet cannot find a decent home in central London. It was inevitable that prices will plummet. It is ridiculous to see a 2 bedroom basement flat in Campden, being valued at over £1 million. There was a massive disconnect between house prices and earning power, driven by dishonest estate agents that lied there way to the largest price bubble ever created by humankind. A massive correction is needed of about 50% to 75% to bring London back to the levels on other European cities.

Mike Kaye, London,

This is SERIOUS,inflation is high,wage rises are low,the national debt is increasing,there is £1.4 trillion worth of debt to clear.I'd call it a lethal cocktail,Mr Brown calls it a robust economy.Who is right,probably some-one else.

Stephen Hulton, eure, france

The fall in the value of property is more likely to be in the order of 60% rather than 15%. Contrary to the popular myth there is no shortage of housing; a huge quantity of property remains empty as owners waited for the top of the market which has now passed them by. The price of housing has less to do with supposed supply than the amount of credit available. Too much easy credit leads to inflation while a shortgae of credit leads to huse price deflation. If you doubt this, ask people in Japan where prices fell up to 80% when their property bubble burst and the banks ceased lending.

Ian, London, UK

Mary Allen: the frenzy was whipped up long ago - the BTL boom, house prices rise forever bubble. Now we are just getting the corollary - a bust. Happened before, happening now, will happen again. Nothing to do with the media.

David, Guildford,

This isn't news, this is a possible scenario out of an infinite number of scenarios, developed by a a certain group of people.

However it is self-fulfilling, each article like this effects confidence in the market in a negative manner.

James H, leeds, england

I am a potential first time buyer and have been holding off buying for a couple of years. What has amazed me as I have spoken to people about this is the number of people that insist on burying their heads in the sand and insisting that there is not a problem and prices will continue to rise. I am no expert and I only base my opinions on qualified opinions from a variety of sources - all of which are saying more or less the same thing. I'm glad I decided not to but.

Steve B, Newcastle, UK

Just remember, if this IS affecting your house. Negative equity only becomes important if you a. have to re-finance the property. Or b. if you have to sell.
Otherwise you have nothing to worry about, just forget it until a1. Property prices rise, then you can swap to a cheaper deal if offered.
Or b2. OK, SO NOW WORRY!

S. Barraclough, Huddersfield, W. Yorkshire

In the 1990's I seem to remember the fall started in higher priced properties and worked its way down. This time the domino effect is going the other way. Just as buy to let boosted the market it will now be the downfall.
The Bank of England prompted by Gordon Brown is doing a "New lamps for old" deal which is doomed.
Why not let the market find its own level .

V Cooper, Yeovil, UK

..and if house prices fall by 100% we'll all be in negative equity....etc. etc.....

Where do you want to stop? This is supposed to be news? Talk about stating the obvious - or making something out of nothing.

Gareth, Crowthorne, UK

I am not sure this news is true or false. But I am quite sure this news is not good for British economics, especially the house market.

ukren, Leicester, UK

Anyone that buys property now at the top of the market onlyl has themselves to blame if they fall into negative equity. The housing market is in freefall and the writing is well and truly on the wall for all to see. I would advise anyone seriously thinking of buying property now to offer 30% below the asking price and don't spend a penny more, Caveat emptor, (buyer beware).

Brian Roberts , Plymouth, Devon

Oh, do give it a rest! Talk about if you bang the same drum for long enough, sooner or later something's bound to happen. The media have been predicting a burst bubble in the property market for 5 or more years. Markets rise and markets fall but perhaps if you all stop whipping up the frenzy, it might not be so bad.

Mary Allen, London, England

Such doom and gloom. Really.

It is self-evident that house prices will continue to outstrip inflation until a cramped flat in Hackney costs more than an Aston Martin DB9 (or two), then a Bugatti Veyron (or two). SImple supply and demand - 'innit.

Trevor, Romsey,