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Conditions in the UK housing market will "get worse before they get better", with mortgage lending expected to fall by 21 per cent this year while house prices will decline by 7 per cent.
According to revised figures released by the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) house prices will fall by 7 per cent in 2008, in contrast to its previous expectations of a 1 per cent rise.
Today's figures also reveal gross mortgage lending had been expected to total £340 billion this year but is now forecast to reach £285 billion in 2008. Over the same period, the number of house sales are predicted to fall from one million to 770,000.
Michael Coogan, director general at the CML, said: "Over the next few months, lending volumes will get worse before they get better.
"The market is still very uncertain, but lenders are working hard to ensure that borrowers coming off fixed rates remain on track, that arrears and repossessions are minimised, and that pricing is as attractive as they can make it in a market where they must manage the demand for lending with caution.”
Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at Global Insight, is also forecasting that house prices will decline by 7 per cent this year and by 9 per cent in 2009.
Though he admitted: "...it is looking ever more possible that house prices will suffer double-digit falls both this year and in 2009, given serious buyer affordability constraints, limited and often more expensive mortgages available due to ongoing very tight lending conditions, a deteriorating economic outlook and reduced prospects for further interest rate cuts in the near term at least.
Gross mortgage lending in April showed an improvement on the previous month, rising 5 per cent to an estimated £25.3 billion compared to March. However, compared to April last year, gross lending fell by 8 per cent.
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Do not compare this to the early 90s-remember rates then of 14/15% anyone?Now there around half that-yes repossessions are up.But full scale housing crash?Unlikely-this is a small island;too many people not enough property.Five years from now we will be wondering what all the fuss was about.
mike.p., LEEDS, WEST YORKSHIRE
Price hick up will be patched over with inflation. So your loan will be worth less. Nobody benefits from a price crash.. and it will not happen. Immigrants come and go- the polish go - the bulgarians come. Olympics around the corner always boost prices and so it will. Take a valium and relax!
Linus, London , UK
I was sceptical about Alan Greenspan's comment on UK housing market over valued 20% when his book was 1st published in US. Since Northern Rock ordeal, the like of Warren Buffett & George Soros, making similar comments. Mervyn King's about the coming year economy & inflation. Watch the oil price!
Linder, London,
I m afraid if you sit back and wait for these huge drops you ll be waiting an awful long time ! when the credit cruch subsides which it will ! Just watch the activity in the market then ! Its not people dont want to buy its because they cant. The majority of sellers will just sit and wait it out !
Timson, East Yorkshire, UK
House prices will decline by 7 per cent as that in my country is opposite,if anything,it will go up in 3 years.Common people can't even afford to pay for a single room.
cristiano, Wuhan, China
Markets fall and markets rise. One sure thing is that the market will grow. The questions is when. As very few saw the downturn coming, very few will know when the market will recover. A house should be a home, we are consumed with property greed in the UK.
Chris Mayhew, reigate, surrey
Karl, it's simple..it's just like the last crash in '89-'91 so save your cash and wait for this to truely bottom-out. My guess is at least two years from now but then it'll take another three or four years from now to pick up again. So relax and collect your 6.5%pa while houses drop by 10%pa. ENJOY!
george, aylesbury,
If the CML were 8% wrong last time protecting thier own vested interests then hmmm......
8% + 7% = 15% drop in prices this year. I reckon that'll be about it then! SAVE SAVE SAVE...just think with prices dropping at 15% with cash getting 6.5% we'll be 21.5% better off. Wonderful, about time!
becky, oxford,
House prices were predicted to come dowm by more than 10% this year. If CML predicted a 1% rise there margin of error is 11%. Therfore if they know expect a 7% fall on the same margin of error expect a 18% fall in prices this year..simple maths..
des, birmingham, uk
As a bloke looking for his first house, i must say, this is all way over my head. im confused!!!1
Karl heath, Leeds, England
Clive, good web site, shows the regional and even neighbourhood specific drop in values, as the old saying goes. location . location
Jonny, Fleet, Hampshire
Matt , London - give it a rest. Vested interest drivel just won't wash anymore.
Danny Wright., Downham Market - see
http://www.propertysnake.co.uk/
Plenty of prices down 40% or more and we're only at the start of the crash! Only 7% this year, the CML are in la la land.
Clive, Chichester, UK
Im an estate agent in the south east and we are looking forward to a further decline, repossesion work is on the up, poor quality agents are going bust and its easier to get offers agreed, a bit more pain will bring more volume to the market, i loved the early 90's cant wait!
Jonny, Fleet, Hampshire
Matt,
In your dreams. Wishful thinking such as yours lost me my house (and wife!) in 1991.
Nick, Florence, Italy
It amazes me how everybody is an expert on the property market. If the experts get it wrong all the time what hope have the general public. The boom has come to an end - there will be a period of recorrection.
JJulian, London,
Waiting for a housing crash you are going to be waiting for a very long time. The ecomony is good - look at the FTSE. Not enough houses to go around and people do not want to rent. 5% off asking price is sensible if it is a good prop in a good area. Only the crap wont sell or will be sold too low.
Matt , London, England
If you have made your living from property speculation over the last ten years then you had better look for something else to do. The last time we saw anything like this it took ten years to clear itself; and this time it's worse.
If you can get out now then get out!
If not then try to ride it.
george, aylesbury,
Been through one Financial crisis in Asia 1997, look like a second one for me in the UK. When it happen in Asia, stocks indices, currencies and properties all went belly up, more than 50% drop. The banks stop reprocessions of cars because no where to store them and houses, can't auction them. Scary.
Kim, Darlington, Durham
"house prices will decline by 7 per cent this year and by 9 per cent in 2009."
So I'd better offer 20% less than the asking price then if nor to have negative equity...
jen, london,
Forgetting house prices for a minute, *any* reduction in borrowing, whether on mortgages or credit cards, is to be welcomed, given the huge volume of private debt in this country. Ideally, new borrowing would fall right down to zero and existing debts would be paid off as soon as possible.
Paul, Coventry,
Inner City Flats have falled by half in places like Nottingham, Birmingham and Manchester.
Richard Davidson, Nottingham,
And this is a bad thing?
Thomas, Alicante, Spain
I think you will find the immigrants are leaving Phil as we move towards a recession. Anyway these people were not responsible for the surge in prices as they drove the rental market. A double digit correction is needed in the market anyway to brings things back in line with salary levels etc.
Stephen, London, London
Simon... In response to estate agents not having a 'proper job or proper education'... Can you tell me what should estate agents like my colleagues (that HAVE been to UNIVERSITY and also have sat FURTHER NAEA and similar accredited exams) do in order to be as clever as yourself?
Richard, Colchester, UK
Surely the price decrease is due to the fact that mortgages are far less available, and uncompetitive. The price drop is not driven by lack of demand. New houses aren't coming on the market because of the headlines. I predict 2 year low price bubble.
David Gray, whitchurch, hampshire
Tim assumes every landlord is forced to take new mortgages soon. Bear in mind that 80% of BTL is done by 10% of BTL landlords - ie professionals with low LTVs and better access to capital, not the muppets who watch C4 programs. In any case, rents will naturally rise as buyers defer.
Shaps, London,
I think house prices will decline only little, the immigrants keep arriving and they need somewhere to live; I say let more in Gordon.
Phil, Surrey, United Kingdom
Prices to fall 7% this year! They must be Joking. Nationwide say prices have falled by 4% since January and the general 1% increase of mortgage rates since March has yet to feed through to paid prices. Try 15% - 20%.
Kai, Norwich,
Sophie, can you list the area's that have seen property prices fall by nearly half? I will go and buy wherever they are tommorow. Wow, what a bargain!!
Danny Wright., Downham Market, Norfolk
The last few years we have had the perfect conditions for a bubble; seemingly endless cheap credit, extreme overconfidence, high levels of disposable income etc. Now all these factors are going into reverse and wont be coming back for a long, long time.
A Harris, Kettering, UK
As a seller of a flat I'm quite prepared to be selling for anything up to 20% below the asking price. It doesn't bother me as I'll be buying again at 20% under asking price, giving me a 20% smaller mortgage. It's only the estate agents who are playing the game, they won't list at the lower prices
Lucy, London,
For Landlords, rents across the country will have to rise by atleast 30% to cover higher mortgage costs to prevent a mass sell off of "buy to let" property in 2008. Best solution is for the MPC at the Bank of England to give up on trying to fight inflation and cut rates to save the economy.
Tim Worlock, Cheltenham,
Judging by a recent auction in the SW, property prices have ALREADY dropped by 30% with over half the properties no selling and many attracting no bids at all. Tough times ahead those in the industry.
Brian Roberts , Plymouth, Devon
yesterday prices were rising; today they are falling.
tomorrow is another day ...
tony, London,
Just what is the VERY REAL PROBLEM? There is no problem - property prices are rightly falling from a ridiculous level, though not by the 40% needed to restore real values. If petrol prices were to drop there would be rejoicing in the streets.
The real losers are the property speculators. Too bad.
Denis, Belfast, Antrim
Houses are completely over valued and we are only in this silly situation because everyone thinks that property is a quick get rich option. We are over saturated with fancy estate agents who are complete sharks these people need to get real jobs and an education and make money the proper way!
Simon, London,
Housing is so over priced that I would never buy a home in the UK. You are paying ridiculous amounts which will take 40 yrs to pay off for a match box and greedy landords are making a match box into three houses. It's ridiculous and soon they will be sorry.
George, Swindon,
7% is very conservative - recent auction results for London show a drop of 20% since Oct 07.
Mustak Ibrahim, London, England
UK house prices are overblown. I would, as a matter of course, now only offer a maximum of 65% of an asking price. I won't buy unless the price is what I say it is and not what an Estate Agent says it is. UK citizens have an insane idea if what their homes are worth!
Mike, Epworth, UK
Let's start dropping those ridiculously high asking prices that nobody can afford. There's a recession coming don't you know.
BTW, my neighbour, a solicitor in North London, has started making staff redundant as business is down 45%. Apparently BTL has vanished and only commercial is holding up
Davie P, London,
7% is a figure plucked out of thin air. It is low enough not to cause panic but high enough to let buyers know there is a VERY REAL PROBLEM. Like Brown's so called small debt he has run up for the UK -the mortgage issue is much bigger and will collapse the market unless banks return to OVER LENDING.
Paul, London, Canada
The CML are predicting falls of only 7%! Thats optimistic! Propertysnake are already listing falls of 40% in some areas, and this is just the beginning. Who would be foolish enough to buy a house in the present climate.
sophie smith, london, uk
More like prices will fall TO 7% in the next year.
John, Dundee, UK
frThis contracts with the article yesterday regarding First Direct which gave the opinion that the housing market was OK.
stephen hulton, eure, france