Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
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Prices of goods leaving Britain’s factories rose at a record pace last month as manufacturers battled with the fastest increases in costs for at least 22 years, grim official figures showed today.
The bleak news of mounting inflationary pressures sparked renewed speculation that the Bank of England’s next move may be to raise interest rates, rather than deliver a hoped-for cut.
Prices for goods at factory gates leapt upwards last month by 1.6 per cent from April alone, twice the gain the City expected, and the steepest rise since present records began in 1986.
The further surge in the cost of manufactured products also drove their annual pace of increase up to an all-time high of 8.9 per cent, breaking April’s previous record of a 7.6 per cent year-on-year rise.
The jump in price pressures in industry will inflame the Bank’s worries that the rising cost of manufactured goods will feed through to the shops, stoking already sharp increases in the overall cost of living, and adding to inflationary dangers across the economy.
Many City economists still believe that it is much more likely that the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep interest rates on hold for a protracted period, rather than raise them.
However, today's data left City futures markets betting on higher rates, with a quarter-point increase by September, and two such rises by the end of the year, now fully priced-in.
Markets scrambled to increase bets on higher, rather than lower base rates, with expectations of rate rises charging upwards in the sharpest such moves seen in the City for a decade.
The MPC’s fears over inflation will be aggravated still more by signs that the severe price pressures in industry are no longer confined to the soaring costs of food and fuel, but are spreading to other kinds of goods.
So-called “core” figures, which strip out prices for food products and fuel, showed that prices at the factory gate for other goods jumped last month by 1.2 per cent for a second month in a row, lifting their year-on-year pace of increase to 5.9 per cent, matching a record high set in 1990.
Prices for processed food leaving factories were meanwhile up by 11 per cent from a year ago, the biggest rise since these records began in 1992.
Last month’s surge in factory gate prices came as manufacturers struggled with startling rises in costs.
Overall “input” costs in industry, for raw materials, components and energy, surged by a record 3.8 per cent in May alone. The steep increase left costs a massive 27.6 per cent up from the same time last year, also setting a new record.
Michael Saunders, of Citigroup, noted that input costs have risen more over the past 16 months than in the whole of the previous 21 years.
The main upward pressure on factories’ costs came from the latest jump in oil prices, which climbed by 11 per cent last month. However, prices in seven of the nine main cost categories for factories showed increases last month.
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Buy gold - not until Brown has a firehouse sale to git rid of stocks at the lowest rate for years (again).
W Smith, Manchester,
Brown made the BOE solely responsible for the bank rate, with the remit to use it to control inflation. What odds he's now twisting their arm to ignore this for the sake of short term political expediency?
David, sydney, australia
Hmmm, 27.9%, eh? Sounds a lot like the rate of inflation in the late 1970s - the last time a Conservative government had to come in and clean up the appalling mess Labour had made of the British economy. Nowadays inflation is more carefully camouflaged, of course. How quickly the voters forget...
Tom Welsh, Basingstoke,
Howard Archer's rate-cutting mantra gets more ridiculous every day.
Paul, Coventry,
so we have soaring factory gate and input prices. But will labour and Gordon Brown fiddle the CPI numbers (as they have done in the last 6 months) to create the illusion that CPI is under control.
Miriam, Manchester, UK
Next thing on the agenda will be half the country going on strike for more pay, driven by the real inflation figure.
The governent seem to be doing nothing except carrying on with business as usual while we all suffer.
Phil, Warington , England
Inflation rising and what is Labour's answer further taxation in the form or congestion charging for Manchester, increases in the precept of parish and town councils.
steve tea, manchester, cheshire
They need to raise rates now, the housing market is already toast. Having your house repossessed is going to seem like a luxury when the new labour dependants can't afford to eat! How many more times have we got to put up with Brown and his halfwits going on about low inflation! Imbeciles!
Mark Smith, London, England
Of course inflation is rising and it's politicians who are driving it up with the juggernaut loads of red tape that emerge out of Whitehall and Brussels each week,all of which increase business' costs which are then passed on to the consumer.When will they stop doing things that don't need doing.
Andrew, Bristol, UK
No surprises here! No rate cuts likely, due to 'prudence'. Watch house prices drop or while money devalues. Bad news for savers and first-time buyers since after-tax savings rates will not be able to keep up with real inflation. Even here, you report 5.9%, rather than 8.9%! 8.9% is the real number!
Michael, London,
Our central bank is saying one thing and doing another.
They claim to target inflation but they've been cutting rates as inflation soars.
Their real aim is to try to inflate away our nation's crippling debts (both public and private). Savers are being hammered to bail out borrowers. Buy gold!
Mart, London, UK
Since the MPC is charged with keeping inflation at or below 2% surely it is obvious what it has to do - raise interest rates. It won't be popular but if it fails to it has no credibility.
chris, brighton,
To talk about rates cuts seems insane to me. We need rate rises so that we get a grip on inflation before it balloons out of control. The longer the delay in rasing rates the more painful the end result. We can not get away from the fact that an economic adjustment is unavoidable after year of debt
chris, Oxford,
Yes - I just wonder why it is such a surprise. Our farm inputs have been going up much greater than this:
fertiliser: £150/ton in 2007 and it is now at £345/ ton same grade
Red diesel: 38 p/litre now 69 p/litre
cow feed: £130/ton now £190/ton!
There is more inflation to come for consumers!
C S Rowlands, Usk, UK