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The coming year will see real take-home pay “stagnate” and property prices fall, the Governor of the Bank of England gave warning last night.
And he made clear that the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is prepared to impose increases in interest rates in its efforts to rein in inflation.
Despite acknowledging that Britain faces “the most difficult economic challenge for two decades”, he held out hope of a return to lower inflation and healthier growth, so long as the monetary discipline imposed by the MPC is maintained.
A day after writing to Chancellor Alistair Darling to explain why inflation is at 3.3% and could hit 4% this year, Mervyn King insisted that the MPC is ready to take “whatever action is needed” to return it to its 2% target.
In a speech following Mr Darling’s annual Mansion House address last night, Mr King echoed the Chancellor’s warning that wage rises must be kept in check to control inflation.
Mr King - who recently declared the end of the “nice decade” of low inflation and constant expansion - rejected arguments that, in the current economic slowdown, the Bank’s focus should be on spurring growth rather than taming inflation.
“Target growth, not inflation, is the cry,” he said. “I could not disagree more. This is precisely the situation in which the framework of inflation targeting is so necessary. Without it, what should be a short-lived, albeit sharp, rise in inflation, could become sustained.”
Although he acknowledged that the main drivers of the current inflation spike were global supply and demand pressures on food and oil, Mr King insisted that action can be taken domestically to put a lid on prices.
“The rise in commodity prices cannot, by itself, generate sustained inflation in the UK unless we allow it to,” he said. “We will not.
“So although inflation in the UK will rise in the short term, inflation will then fall back.
“That means that the rate of increase of other prices and domestic costs, notably pay, must remain low.”
It was “impossible to judge” what level the base rate will eventually have to reach in order to bring inflation back down, and the MPC’s decision will be made on a month-by-month basis, said Mr King.
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Don't foget that increased interest rates boost sterlings value - this helps reduce inflation - particularly oil.
Also, this encourages money to be invested in uk banking system - *helping* the credit crunch.
Not to mention preventign reckless borrowing
Jim, preston, england
Brilliant! And all this from a man who earns around £6,000 a week.He was no doubt sampling fine wines and food, sat next to Mr darling who earns around £3,000 a week plus expenses. I wonder where these 2 fat cats will feel the pinch?A loaf of bread costs the same for all 3 off us!
Dave Bridge, Southport, U.K
The argument for interest rate increases is that it will boost the pound (making imports cheaper) and limit wage increases short term. The latter measure WILL reduce living standards, but in the long run by a great deal less than runaway wage and price inflation. Short term pain for long tem gain.
Jim McLaughlin, Calgary, Canada
The Bank Of England could stop the British economy altogether and the price of a barrel of oil would be virtually unchanged. The current inflation is not due to a lack of capacity in an overheating economy, so a high interest rate strategy will barely help tame inflation.
T Coates, Ambleside, Cumbria
Its always been the same since the end of World War II. The Americans seem to have a lovely time, plenty of money and 'gas', and we Brits work hard all our life to scrimp and save to pay the taxman, educate our children, and buy a home. We sacrifice a great deal and seem to get nowhere.
Weaver, Hong Kong,
it is reasonable to expect the ratio of house prices to incomes to fall back, said Mr King.
Therefore as avg wage ~20k, avg hous price should be ~100k (3.5 times plus a deposit)
Therefore as avg house price now ~180k there should be a 44% fall.
Malcolm, London,
So the solution to the current economic turmoil is to let inflation crawl it's course for some time, until income distribution is re-organized, while denying any wage adjustments in the meanwhile. :-(
This is tantamount to a purchasing power shift from wage earners to goods sellers.
Nice plan :-(
Rui, Lisbon, Portugal
CA Manchester
Why (??) would you expect the people at the top of the food chain to care about those lower down who are going to be hammered by the global commodity price rises?
How often do they pop to the shops or fill their car up away from expenses? They are detached from the real world
Pete, London, England
Because he can - just as they have done in Australia with mortgage rates at 9.5% now. Blunt instrument that has no effect on inflation and just puts people into hardship - while the rich get richer from higher interest on their money
Andrew, Sydey, Australia
Continued restraint on pay is required from both the public and private sector says Darling. Will the tanker drivers be agreeing to this?
A see a winter of discontent looming, higher household fuel prices, inflation on the up and no doubt further strikes by Public and Private sector workers
Jim, Bathgate,
Do I have this right banks pour billions into property & commodities keeping billions in bonuss ; rewards exceeding the total annual earnings of the average family.
The rest of us let it be said outright face a cut in our standards of living in order to pay for the excesses of others.
Michael Taylor, dehli , india
Oil prices effect the retail cost of everything. All products are transported & kept in shops that rely on fuel for lighting, heating, cooling. The escalating fuel costs are escalating food costs. Demand for food hasn't suddenly increased. Capping fuel VAT would be a positive first step.
Chris, Cleveleys, Lancashire
hmmm, i wonder when anyone will raise the subject of the tax take being the major cause of this inflationary blip? opps of course not that would be showing this govt and boe up for the incompetents that that they are, if this was a business they would be sacked and charged!
alan, london,
Be aware that the governor of the Bank of England is not always right. Don't forget British ingenuity.
Joe Ruxton, Guildford, UK
As the biggest cost of each UK family is the mortgage repayment, an increase in the interest rate will inevitably increase the real inflation. Can someone show me in real terms the effect of inflation and interest rate rise? Is it better a 2% increase in inflation or on interest rate?
andrea ceccanti, London,
We the common people of this once great country need to take action against bankers and their nazi representatives at the Bank of England. We will not take the destruction of our lives lightly under the jackboot of interest rate increase threats. We will defend our living standards by mass strikes.
david hambly, St Albans/ Hull, UK
Responsible pay rises? But only for the hoi-poloi. I bet the pay of company directors increases by 10% next year. After all their pay is fixed by fixers whose own pay increase depends on the fixees. What a corrupt system and the BOE and PM collude in it as they will one day have their snouts in it.
David, sydney, australia
brilliant, up goes the interest on my savings, that's helpful!
Andy, Bath,
Labour is a commodity and it follows the rise in other prices. How come Nu Labour has never had a view on the levels of pay for extreme high earners "that is for the market" well the market will find organised workers and I assume presently unorganised workers will not accept pay restraint.
Alan, Carlisle, UK
King says we must expect a stagnating of living standards. What planet is he living on. We are experiencing a fall in living standands due to inflation being larger than rise in income.
This loss is likely to be long term, as pensioners and others on fixed incomes do nit ever make up past losses.
KW, Bognor Regis, England
If King, the Chancellor or Brown believe that the more powerful Unions will stand for their rhetoric on wage restraint, whilst they see MPs and company directors with their fat noses in the trough, they are living in cloud cuckoo land. There will be serious public/private sector strikes this summer.
paul, birmingham, uk
I think your headline says it all - King TALKS tough on raising rates but is unlikely to do any such thing since he has buckled under political pressure. Is this guy a moron or what? Devalue the pound and create additional inflation and then tell people not to expect wage increases to compensate!
chris, brighton,
Will MP's, Senior Civil Servants and Company Directors be advocating pay restraints when it comes to their salary reviews? I don't think so somehow. Do as I say not as I do is a common theme at the 'so-called' higher authority levels of society.
P. Kelly, Beverley, UK
Thro New(Hard) Labour's incompetance The Magic Porridge-Pot is now empty. The Prime Minister and his cronnies cannot even give straight answers (PM's Question-Time is a farce). They waffle around like the morons they are. Labour should be charged with 'Crimes against The UK People'.
Hugh, Buckfastleigh, Devon
CA - you forget that raising interest rates will strengthen the pound and lower the value of imports.
It will also slow exports, slowing growth, increasing unemployment and reducing the ability to ask for pay rises.
It will also lower demand generally - reducing the ability to raise prices.
jeremy, hassocks, sussex
brilliant, up goes my mortgage payment, thats helpful!
CS, Ipswich, UK
The price of crude is set by OPEC in line with what they can get from the greedy "Futures + Commodities" brokers who make untold billions. King should stop all this obscene profiteering and this will put the economy back to normal again. Normal with the HUGE pay increase to Tanker drivers? NO WAY!
Dave C,, Wallasey, UK
If Mr King wants to curb inflation, he needs to stop the price of crude oil rising, stop the price of wheat and other food stuffs rising. How much of this ins within his control? - none and he knows it. So why is he taking it out on the public.
CA, Manchester, UK