David Smith, Economics Editor
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THE economy is heading into recession and may face a slump on the scale of the early 1990s, according to Deloitte, one of Britain’s leading accountants. Another, KPMG, says more than half of businesses are planning job cuts.
Deloitte’s quarterly economic review examines the effect of the lower pound on industry and asks whether export-led growth will prevent a severe downturn. Roger Bootle, its economic adviser, believes it will not. He said: “While the sharp fall in the UK exchange rate seen since last summer should eventually lead to a period of better-balanced growth, like that enjoyed in the mid-1990s, it won’t prevent the credit crunch and a sharp retrenchment in corporate spending from sending the economy into recession.”
After figures on Friday showed that quarterly growth had fallen to 0.2% in the second quarter of this year, Deloitte says a “technical recession” of two or more consecutive quarters of falling gross domestic product is now all but guaranteed. “A full-blown slump like the early 1990s is not impossible if the labour market crumbles or interest rates end up rising rather than falling,” the report says.
It predicts that the Bank of England will be forced to cut interest rates to 3.5% next year, from 5% now, but even this will not be enough to bring about an early recovery.
KPMG’s quarterly national business confidence survey, meanwhile, shows that in the “dour” economic climate 53% of businesses intend to reduce headcount, against 29% three months ago. In all, 60% of companies intend to cut costs in response to the credit crunch.
“The clouds that were on the horizon in early spring are now right overhead, with businesses feeling the impact of this so-called ‘perfect storm’ of rising inflation, tightening credit conditions and plummeting consumer confidence,” said Malcolm Edge, head of markets at KPMG.
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KARMA. The innocent and defenseless around the world have been oppressed by the strong and wealthy. Now the strong and wealthy will have to deal with economic oppression. Ironically, it's their own doing. Stop WAR and HATE. That's when our punishment will stop.
Nigel, London, UK
The real risk to growth is in consumer behaviour. In past recessions, the savings ratio has risen to 13% or more. It is now 1.1%. By my rough calculations, an adjustment of that order could take £90bn-plus out of spending (6% of GDP) very rapidly. If consumers get spooked by unemployment figures.
Robert C, London , UK
Not really sure why people are still debating 'if' the UK is heading into a recession, since it is IMHO heading into a depression since there are no signs to the contrary, and all the weights and balances are wobbling totally beyond the control of any bank, government, consumer or employer.
Mark, London,
We already have massive inflation - HOUSE PRICE inflation - with knock on effects for the rest of the economy as people struggle and raise their prices etc. The BoE stupidly ignored this and did nothing to stop it. This massive inflation needs to be adjusted.
Joe, Manchester,
Many businesses, my own included, have been quietly cutting back jobs for a year or more.
MarkS, Leeds,
Roger Bootle has always been a merchant of gloom. Recall his forecast of an imminent house price crash? - in September 2001. The secret of forecasting is to do it often.
John, ST Albans,
The wealth-generating economy has been in recession for years. It has just been disguised by a credit bubble.
Paul, Coventry,
In 1990, Labour research department judged that going into the ERM at 2,5Dm would keep unemployment level; 2.25 would reduce it and 2.75 would increase it. Major put us in, by fiat, at 2.95 and even official unemployment doubled.
BoE is independent? CPI measures inflation? Prudence was justified?
Michael Moore, Stockport, England
I'm afraid that this is only the beginning of something much more unpleasant than a common or garden boom bust cycle.Have any of the writers heard of Peak Oil?If not do a search for "life after the oil crash"and all will become clear.
steve, Stockton on Tees, UK
The onpoliticians sayit they feel our pain when dealing with , amongst others, rising food prices.. yet they are taxing us at ever higher levels so that they have enough money to pay to farmers not to produce food as part of the european madness of farm setaside.
steven hope, shanghai, china
I think the bank boss's who glorify themselves with bonus bananza in a bull run and not see clowds gathering should take the entire blame. Excessive reward for uncalculated risk with peoples money should be branded as criminal activity. Most of them should be removed from their positions.
j deo, leeds,
I trust none of these accountants/economists. Where were they since 2003 when the debt storm was brewing? This is as bad as it gets & it will take decades to turn our economy around.
Any BoE cuts will precipitate a sterling crisis & exacerbate inflation & social unrest. Wake up UK!!!
Steve Marchant, Newton Abbot, Devon
IF the B of E makes any move to reduce interest rates then inflation, allegedly at 3.8% and rising heading to 4.3% but really more like 6 to 9%, then inflation really will take off and we will have an even bigger economic headache.
Kenneth Armitage, Suffolk, England
The credit crunch was born from low interest rates, excessive borrowing and the banks throwing away the lending rule books where risk was no longer considered. House prices ballooned on the back of this. The idea of lowering interest rates to further inflate the bubble seems madness to me.
Chris, Chippy,
Anyone with any common sense could have seen this coming. Why was everyone so happy about inflated house prices and the ease at which people were given all sorts of credit? We must be buyer beware and live within our means as individuals and as a country especially in a global economy.
Pam Nathan, London, England
It's just another economic cycle. It will also have benefits, as companies will become more efficient and the workers who lose jobs will be taken up in other expanding areas, or maybe even start their own companies.
The worst is that the government loses control of inflation. Up with the rates,
Bob Travels, Stevenage,
I think not only the Uk heading into recession but the whole world
Ben, London,
The only way out is the same as it always has been: keep interest rates high to fight inflation and cut taxes hard to stimulate the economy. Do people never learn?
Rich, Bristol, UK
BROWN Sell gold when prices are low, allow irresponsible lending to people who never had a cat in hell's chance of repaying the debt, a string of badly thought out policies and "initiatives" which promise everything and deliver nothing but a mess.Briiliantly incompetant chancellor wasn't he?
J H Lobb, Leeds, West Yorkshire
Lets get one thing straight....we are not only heading into a recession but into a depression and all on Gordon Brown's incompetent watch!!
Louis blanc, Liverpool, UK
The main business that needs to trim costs,is HM Government , fat chance of that is there???
Eddy, Bury St.Edmunds,
It was obvious that the economy was going to go into recession with £1.4 trillions worth of debt to repay and wage rises averaging less than 4%.Interest rates should have been raised 3 years ago.Now inflation may be the only way out of this economic calamity created by the so-called iron chancellor.
stephen hulton, eure, france
I simply see no way in which the BoE can reduce interest rates. With inflation rampant (it's the printing presses!) sterling would fall through the floor and exacerbate the problem.
Rock - hard place. We have no option but to take the pain for the excesses of the last 10 years.
Rob, Isle of Wight,