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Since at least the turn of the century, the twin booms in the housing market and the high street have seen Britain's seemingly unstoppable army of consumers spending with abandon. In a “What the hell?” culture of “Buy today and worry tomorrow” that has gripped the nation, households have run up mountainous debts that now total £1.4 trillion.
But has that “tomorrow”, and a grim day of reckoning, finally arrived?
Millions are already feeling the squeeze from soaring utility bills, higher taxes and only modest growth in take-home pay. Now, the financial screws on Britain's households are being turned still tighter as the global credit crunch leads banks and other lenders to ratchet up their rates for remortgaging and for new loans.
Although most people will get by, millions will struggle and hundreds of thousands will suffer financial trauma. And for the unlucky and unwise who have overextended themselves in the good times, economists fear that things may be about to turn truly ugly.
Economists have given warning that the high levels of debt in the UK are actually magnifying the effects of the credit crunch.
Households in the UK owe a total of £1.4 trillion to banks and building societies. More than £225 billion has been piled on to credit cards and personal loans while the remainder has been spent on bricks and mortar, the Bank of England says. Even the start of the credit crunch last year was not enough to stem the credit binge. Credit card borrowing rose by 1.25 per cent last year, while mortgage borrowing rose 10.8 per cent, figures from Experian, the credit reference agency, show.
However, bigger debts mean that households become more sensitive to any change in interest rates. Even the slightest increase can eat up a significant chunk of their weekly income.
In 1998, when the bank base rate was as high as 7.5 per cent, the average household spent 9 per cent of its annual income on paying interest charges on its home loan, credit card, loans and overdraft. Today the base rate is only 5.25 per cent, but households are spending 10 per cent of their income on interest payments.
George Buckley, UK economist for Deutsche Bank, said: “The higher the debt levels, the more sensitive consumers are to changes in interest rates.”
The added difficulty is that while the bank rate has fallen in recent months, borrowers are being forced to pay higher rates for their home loans as lenders pass on the increased costs of borrowing money from other banks. The margin between the bank rate and “swap rates”, the rates banks charge each other, hit 1.2 percentage points last month, Usually this figure is around 0.23 percentage points.
Higher rates on new fixed-rate deals will force the 1.4 million people coming to the end of a fixed-rate deal this year to find an extra £100 a month on average, or £1,200 a year, simply to cover their repayments. In addition, they will have to find about £1,000 to cover the mortgage fee.
Although this will be an uncomfortable addition to the monthly bills, experts point out that many homeowners have built up a cushion of equity in their property which they can draw upon if the bills start to bite. The total equity held in property was £2.8trillion last year, compared with £1.2trillion of mortgage borrowing.
Those who who have had little time to build up equity in their property, or those who have remortgaged to release big slices of equity to fund their spending will be hardest hit. Lenders have withdrawn many deals offering more than 90 per cent of the value of a property, and only nine lenders still offer 100 per cent mortgage deals. As competition between lenders for these types of deals shrinks, the interest rates increase. The number of mortgages on offer has more than halved from about 13,000 in July last year to 6,100 today. As a result, borrowers will have to pay more to secure a new deal, or go onto their lenders' more expensive standard variable rate.
Recent falls in house prices will only add to their woes. Spiralling house prices in the past decade resulted in many first-time buyers stretching their finances to the limit to buy a home. This, reasoned borrowers and lenders alike, would be fine as interest rates were low and house prices continued to climb, providing a pool of equity that they could use as a “Get out of Jail Free” card.
This worked for borrowers who bought two years ago. They have seen their house's value soar by 20 per cent, giving them a reasonable cushion. However, people who bought a home with little or no deposit after September last year have limited wiggle room.
Tens of thousands of borrowers have already contacted debt charities for help this year. The number of people seeking help on mortgage arrears soared by more than a third in the first two months of the year, Citizens Advice said yesterday. About 144,000 borrowers were between three and six months in arrears with mortgage payments last year, figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders show.
Another debt charity said that the number of people becoming insolvent is set to rise this year as Britons try to keep up with the spiralling cost of living. Vince Cable, the deputy leader of the Liberal Democrats, has given warning of a “very real possibility of mass bankruptcy and repossession across the country”.
More borrowers could be thrown into difficulties by the abrupt withdrawal of credit. Last month, Egg, the online bank, cancelled the credit cards of 161,000 customers with little warning. Those relying on juggling their debts between credit cards will face an uphill struggle as lenders become more picky about their customers. They may face the prospect of actually repaying the debt or accepting punitive interest rates on their borrowings.
A spike in insolvencies is bad news for the economy, but a potentially more damaging side-effect of the credit crunch is the slowdown in spending among consumers as they strive to meet their increased monthly repayments. The stalling housing market is likely to exacerbate this. Jonathan Loynes, UK economist for Capital Economics, said: “The housing market oils the wheels of consumer expenditure as homeowners buy goods for their new houses.”
Consumer spending accounts for two thirds of economic activity, and economists have sounded alarm that any slowdown in this area and the subsequent drop in demand could prompt redundancies. Mr Loynes said: “A cut-back in employment could then cause a further slowdown in spending. There is a real danger that these things feed back into themselves.”
Howard Archer, of Global Insight, said: “The longer the crisis goes on, the more people will be sucked into it.”
Debtor nation
— The average credit card holder has a balance of £1,856 on their cards, according to Uswitch, the price comparison website
— The average outstanding mortgage is £100,406; the average first-time buyer borrows £117,999 and spends 20 per cent of their income on mortgage interest payments
— Consumers in Northern Ireland increased their borrowing by nearly a quarter over the past 12 months, the biggest increase in the UK
— Borrowers in Aldershot, Dartford, and Ilford have reined in their spending most, according to Experian, the credit reference agency
— Nearly 25,000 people became insolvent between October and December last year, 16.4 per cent fewer than the same period in 2006. The major reason for that was a spat behind the scenes between lenders and companies offering Individual Voluntary Arrangements (IVAs) – schemes that allow debtors to pay off only a portion of their debts. Borrowers who take out an IVA must repay at least 35 per cent of their debt
— Lenders refused to accept many IVA applications, saying that IVA firms were offering payments that were too small and taking high fees for themselves. The dispute was resolved last month, so experts expect the number of IVAs to soar in the coming months
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Paulie
I lived in Japan and am a trained Economist who looked at the Asia Pacific economies. A bubble is a bubble no matter what country or asset we are talking about. They rely on excess credit and self-fulfilling prophesies.
A bubble is an asset valued far in excess of fundamentals. Any Economist who does not have a vested interest in our housing market (e.g. the IMF) or whose job does not rely on housing, thinks it is a bubble because of the numbers.
What I don't get is the Denial that it is realistic for prices to return closer to fundamentals BUT that it is more Realistic that the market and debt will rise to infinity. See ONS and UK Housing Review figures...there is no shortage.
Regarding the difference between wealth and debt: that was a more general point. There are plenty of BTL who talk about their £10m property "wealth", or home owners who have a house worth £1m. BUT they owe the bank 90% of this in debt.
The US Joes also had no triggers until they did.
Raj, London,
Raj, I agree with some of your points but where oh where have I confused wealth with debt? I only believe that there will be no property price 'crash'. By crash I mean across the board reductions of up to 25%. This simply will not happen. I am aware of price reductions in the higher echelons of the housing market but for the regular Joes and Josephines (like me) the fears are overstated. Regarding Japan, I used to live there and feel it is worth pointing out that their economy relies on slightly different propellants than ours - for example, the majority of Japanese don't buy their own homes as Japanese homes are designed to be knocked down and replaced after two or three decades. There are other differences in their economy which make comparisons ultimately futile.
Paulie, Loughborough, England
Paulie...
Wages have not gone up over the last 10 years: the increase in house prices was via greater amounts of debt. If debt is controlled, and prices went up with it, why will prices not fall?
Why do you find it bad that house prices fall and we pay less to the banks? That would mean we can buy goods through our income and not credit cards.
If worried about your countrymen why not think it is bad that BLT and VIs have diverted our financial resources to non-productive areas at the expense of real capacity?
On sustainability. As King said, debt is real, house prices depend on what someone would pay. Our debt ratios are the highest in the world!
Go check popn density, level and growth in Japan during 1985-95. Also their interest and unemployment rates were lower. They collapsed from 1990.
The US even now has lower interest rate and unemployment rates. Yet the first national collapse since the Depression! We boom and bust also.
You have confused wealth and debt.
Raj, London,
How stomach-churning to read the comments of those who are rubbing their hands gleefully at the propspect of people losing their homes. What a sad indictment of my fellow countrymen. Furthermore, I suspect that ultimately you may be disappointed. There will be no 'crash' of property prices whatsoever. A sobering overhaul of lending criteria does not mark the end of the world as we know it, rather it will reign in the recklessness of those institutions which should have known better. The Bank of England will cut rates again at least once by summer.
Paulie, Loughborough, England
Trevor has made a series of extremely valuable points. The comments on bumping-up incomes for self-certified mortgages is very important. I would guess that many self-certified mortgages were given to self-employed tradesman (plumbers, builders, kitchen fitters etc, etc). The problems association with the binge in self-certified mortgages are more than likely to be compounded by a weakening property market; less work for tradesmen!
Costas, Cyprus,
I think this is more a problem of money education. Perhaps if more time were to be spent on educating ourselves as well as our children on how money markets work around the World we would become a more savvy consumer society. Whilst we would all like the nicer things in life, we would be more cautious over how much we were willing to take on, rather than blame the establishment for allowing us to borrow too much for our own good. We cannot keep robbing Peter to pay Paul, as surely Peter will want his money back leaving us in trouble of our own making.....
Shaun, Gloucester, uk
Who is to blame?? This all comes down to estate agents greed, banks greed, and the people of the nation putting blinkers on there eyes and having one word in their mind... SPEND! I have not bought a house yet because I could see that the prices are getting into silly money and it could not keep on going on the way that it is. I have a large lump sum of money now and can't wait for the bubble to pop.
J., Surrey,
How brilliant and perceptive to say that the higher the debt levels the more sensitive people are to changes in interest rates.
Mr Buckley is truly a genius. I take off my hat to him!
nic, royan, france
This ignores that crises do not occur because of averages. They occur as marginal people overstretch and then take everyone else down as the credit cycle turns i.e. people feel great knowing FTBs spend only 20% of their income on mortgage payments BUT there are many spending far more. They will be the trigger for a crash (mostly in London), not the "average" borrowers.
The equity cushion that is mentioned covers the deposit side when it comes to remortgaging (too low means being stuck on the SVR) BUT something that never gets mentioned is the income multiple...There are some 500,000 self-certilied out there. I think at least half lied about their incomes. There are also hundreds of thousands out there who were openly given high multiples.
Even if they now have equity, their wages have not risen, so on remortgaging they will still want high multiples...now gone. This means that they will be on the SVR i.e. 1m people from 4.8% to 7%+? Those who can remortgage rise to "only" 5.9%.
Trevor, UK,
The moral of the story: a high base rate and tight credit controls are the only way the save millions of Britons from their own stupidity.
Paul, Coventry,
Lost my house in the crash of the nineties, had to suffer gloating from the BTL brigade and the new car owners, over the last few years,spending like no tomorow with housing equity credit cards-well tomorows come and its reckoning time-enjoying every minute!
steve, west midlands, uk
What intrigues me about this is what will happen to borrowers who took out 100%+ mortgages in the last 2 years when their fixed rates end. Will they be able to remortgage in the current climate, or be stuck with their lenders SVR?
Surely such people would be effectively 'locked in' if there is no one that will remortgage them? Can anyone shed any light on this? It seems to be a bit of an elephant-in-the-room for the housing market if so...
Brian, London, UK
Percentages are not symmetrical going up and down.
A 20% increase in the value of your property is no cushion if prices then drop 20%.
To see why, imagine you bought a house at £200K and it increased 20%. It would now be worth £240K - but if prices now drop 20% your property would be worth £192K (240x20% = 48)..
If you took out a 100% mortgage and have been paying interest only you will still have a £200k debt - effectively £8k of neg equity. If you have spent the £40k price increase then you are even worse off.
If the price of servicing your debt and maintaining your property is increasing faster than your income is rising then you are in real trouble.
Huw Sayer, Norwich, UK
everyday for the last 5 years I have looked at all the nice expensive cars next to me on the road and all those people in shopping centers spending week after week and I thought how do people afford this when the average UK salary is around £23K? Now all becomes clear. The sooner we return to the days of if you have money in the bank you can afford it the better.
stuart, london, uk
this time the housing crash will be worse than the one in 90s. The banks themselves are struggling in the capital markets to borrow.cheap financing market - securitization is gone now. Of course, this in turn will be felt by the retail borrowers in a form of hiigher interest rates or nonavaiability of credit.
abrahm, London,