David Smith, Economics Editor
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THE Bank of England will this week reveal a grim forecast of rising inflation and sharply weakening economic growth for the coming months. Though the Bank’s closely watched quarterly inflation report will leave the door open to further interest rate cuts, it will disappoint those looking for aggressive reductions.
The Bank’s report comes as the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), in its new economic forecast, warns that Britain will skate close to recession over the next six to nine months, with quarterly growth remaining only just above zero. Growth will remain weak in 2009, it says.
Mervyn King, the Bank governor, is required to write an open letter to the prime minister if inflation measured by the consumer prices index (CPI) rises above 3%. If it stays above that level for three months, he is expected to write another letter.
This week’s forecast is set to show he is on course for at least one such letter in the coming months, with some analysts warning that the peak could be close to 4% after the new surge in fuel prices, with oil hitting a record $126 a barrel last week.
“If oil prices stabilise at current levels, headline CPI inflation looks likely to be running closer to 4% than 3% in the second half of 2008, and to remain above 3% into 2009,” said Malcolm Barr, an economist with JP Morgan. Inflation on this measure is currently 2.5%.
While the Bank is set to stick to its view that inflation will return to the 2% target in the medium term, it will also warn that soaring commodity prices and heightened inflation expectations mean that the risks are tilted to the upside.
In its latest inflation report in February, the Bank predicted the low point for growth would be reached in the final quarter of this year, at 1.6%, but pick up next year. This week’s forecast is set to show weak growth continuing into 2009, in contrast to the Treasury’s prediction of a bounce.
David Kern, economic adviser to the BCC, whose new forecast is published today, said: “British business will face a difficult and risky climate in 2008 and 2009. Recession is unlikely, and can certainly be avoided. But the monetary policy committee (MPC) and the government must adopt pro-active policy measures aimed at countering the threats to growth.”
The BCC expects growth of 1.7% this year, slowing to 1.6% next year. It is assuming that the Bank cuts interest rates to 4.5% or 4.25% before the end of the year but no lower, because of inflation risks. Slow growth should bring inflation back to target in 2009, it says.
Despite inflation worries, analysts expect the Bank to cut interest rates next month, according to Ideaglobal.com, the financial research company.
On house prices, the median expectation among analysts is that, on the Halifax and Nationwide measures, they will drop by 15% from peak to trough.
Figures this week will show whether the economic slow-down has had an impact on the job market. The April inflation figures, which the Bank had sight of before deciding to leave interest rates unchanged last week, will also be published.
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The single largest overhead cost in this country today is the public sector, it is ever increasing in cost and ever decreasing in delivery. You do not "invest" in high cost overheads you look to reduce them and make them more applicable and manageable, simple clear business logic.
john G, london, uk
The Times does not give you enough words to make a point.
Bertie Poole, Lound, England
Lowering rates will only depress sterling which will in turn raise inflation and increase the problem. It's a crazy idea for such a small Country with an interest rate driven currency. Complete suicide!!
pedro tam, London, UK
I think Mervyn & Co do know this Rob, but unfortunately over the last few years the 'independant' Bank of England has shown itself to be anything but, with "No-Crash Gordon & The Masters of the MEW-niverse" applying pressure to cut rates and save his 'Miracle Economy' of ever-rising house prices!
Andy, Bath,
Low interest rates are the cause of this mess, it is pathetic to hear the same discussed as a "cure"
Rate cuts will not free up lending. Lending is not witheld due to rates, it is witheld (prudently) due to high risk of borrower default. IR cuts help like gin helps a drunk. Time for Rehab....
mike, Waikato, New Zealand
The sooner interest rates go back up again the better. We are going to have a stagnant economy with or without inflation - and better without it - until house prices are back to sensible affordable levels.
Paul, Coventry,
Rob, rising commodities are ultimately due to lack of supply. When external prices rise, people demand higher wages for the same work. That's inflation. Reductions in interest lower sterling and increase import prices further. All depressingly familiar from the '70s.
Colinc, shrewsbury,
Rising commodity prices are NOT fueling inflation,
RISING COMMODITY PRICES ARE A 'DIREC'T RESULT OF INFLATION.
As crude oil for instance is bought in US dollars, and the US is INFLATING its currency supply by ever increasing amounts to stave off a spiralling national dept.
SO OIL COST MORE
Andrew Snowden, Keighley, England
He might not be able to cut rates at all after the inflation figures are published this week.
stephen hulton, eure, france
Interest rate decisions were unaffected by the massive house price inflation in recent years due to the reliance on the CPI as a measure of inflation. Look where that got us. Unless a more realistic approach is taken towards inflation we are simply storing up more problems for the future.
Simon Bennett, Epsom, UK
Traditionally inflation was bad as it was an indication of demand exceeding supply and this drove up prices. What we are seeing is rising prices being driven by rising commodity prices - this reduces what people have to spend and is anti-inflationary - why can't Mervyn and co see this?
Rob, Melksham, UK
Inflation will not influence the decisions of the Central Bankers in the USA or Europe. Why ? Because their decision to debase their respective currencies is not negotiable. The debasement of Money will not stop.
Dan Berlinski, Geneva, Switzerland
Mr Snowden is spot on. I've yet to see any mainstream financial commentator seriously discuss the confiscatory effect of increasing the money supply over and above the growth rate of GDP. 'Pumping liquidity into the system' destroys the value of your hard earned cash and savings. It's theft!
George Thompson, Croydon,
As crude oil is purchased using US dollars, and the US is inflating its money supply by ever increasing amounts to stave of its massively out of control NATIONAL DEPT.
So the US is actually 'EXPORTING' its INFLATION to the UK/WORLD, HIDDEN WITHIN THE RISING COST OF ALL TYPES OF FUEL PRODUCTS.
Andrew Snowden, Keighley, England
The simple truth is,Central Banks do not fight inflation, they actually CREATE it.
It is nothing more than a SECRET TAX, imposed upon the middle/working class to extort their wealth from them, by the ruling ELITE.
This is achieved by keeping society dumbed down or ill informed, hence your article.
Andrew Snowden, Keighley, England
The BoE left the interest rate unchanged on thursday, the reason for this being, ' to combat inflationary pressures'.
Then on friday the BoE adds another £71.3 Billion pounds to the money supply, thereby 'INFLATING' the money supply.
Well I am very sorry, but you JUST CANT have it both ways.
Andrew Snowden, Keighley, England
For an economy largely dependent on imports of food and commodities the BoE is creating ts own degree of inflation by allowing the pound to devalue. We now need a strong pound policy to help protect us from a sterling crisis and social unrest.
Steve Marchant, Broadhempston, UK
As long as interest rate decisions are made on an official rate of inflation of 2.5%,which has no resemblance with the real inflation experienced by ordinary families,then sensible,nonpolitically motivated,corrective economic action is impossible.
Isn't it obvious?
nic, royan, france