Iain Dey
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BELGIUM’s Fortis is this weekend poised to become the first large continental bank to fall victim to the credit crunch, as the global chaos continues with Bradford & Bingley and American savings giant Wachovia both teetering on the brink.
The Belgian central bank and the country’s regulator are paving the way for a bailout of the huge banking and insurance group, which has a £540 billion balance sheet and a market value of £12 billion.
In Britain, the fate of Bradford & Bingley will be decided today. Fren-etic talks between the Bank of England, the Financial Services Authority and the government have been taking place this weekend to save the troubled mortgage bank.
Santander, the Spanish bank, is in negotiations to buy B&B, but it is insisting on a stringent set of conditions. The talks are being led by Anto-nio Horta-Osorio, chief executive of Santander’s UK bank, Abbey.
Another option being pursued by the government and the FSA is to carve up B&B. This would result in the sale of its £20 billion deposit business, its 197-strong branch network and its troubled mortgage book. These assets would be auctioned to the highest bidder.
But the government could still be left with the bulk of the £42 billion mortgage book, half of which is exposed to the buy-to-let market. One government adviser said: “What we have to do is find the best deal for the taxpayer.”
If no buyers come forward, B&B will be nationalised and broken up. However, while the fate of B&B offers a fascinating insight into the hardship faced by financial institutions, in terms of international significance the problems faced by Fortis are far more serious.
Dutch banking giant ING and France’s BNP Paribas are both involved in talks with Fortis about buying all or part of its business.
Neither bank is thought to be willing to take on Fortis unless they can receive guarantees over the bank’s exposures to sub-prime mortgages and other problem assets.
The Belgian regulator is thought to be considering the creation of a “toxic dump” for assets similar to the controversial scheme proposed in America as a means of ensuring a deal.
Any uncertainty around the future of Fortis is likely to weigh heavily on Royal Bank of Scotland. Fortis was one of RBS’s partners in the consortium that bought ABN Amro last year.
The Dutch banking assets that Fortis bought as part of the deal have yet to be transferred out of the holding company used to execute the deal, which is legally a subsidiary of RBS.
Talks on the future of Fortis, which has 2,500 branches across Europe, accelerated on Friday night after the bank replaced its chief executive, appointing instead Filip Dierckx, who has been on the board since January.
The Belgian government, regulators, and the Dutch central bank are all involved in the talks. A deal is expected to be announced by tomorrow morning to prevent a crisis of confidence that could spark public panic and a run on deposits.
Fortis is Britain’s third-largest private car insurer, based on volume, and the fourth-largest travel insurer.
The British government is also keen to have resolved the future of B&B by tonight and is fearful that uncertainty over the bank’s future will create a run on deposits.
Yesterday there were queues at only three B&B branches. Staff volunteered to go in and help, but there was no repeat of the huge queues outside Northern Rock last year and all anxious customers were seen.
Santander’s prime interest is in the branch network and the savings franchise. It is seeking dispensations from the Competition Commission to prevent investigations into the market shares that the enlarged group would have.
Two weeks ago the government waived the competition rules to allow Lloyds TSB to take over HBOS.
If the deal went ahead, it would create a duopoly in British banking, with the new Santander conglomerate going head to head with the combination of Lloyds TSB and HBOS. The only other bank that had entertained talks to acquire B&B was HSBC, but the bank attached a series of conditions to the deal that was unacceptable to the Treasury.
Santander has also been linked to a possible move for Wachovia, America’s sixth-largest bank, alongside Wells Fargo and Citigroup.
Wachovia put itself up for sale on Friday night after a crisis of confidence sparked by the collapse of Washington Mutual and its subsequent sale to JP Morgan.
Robert Steel, Wachovia’s chief executive, contacted the three banks as his share price plunged 27% in response to the Washington Mutual sale. Toronto Dominion Bank of Canada is also rumoured to be on the fringes of a possible deal.
Prospective bidders were said to be waiting to see whether there was a prospect of waiting for Wachovia to collapse before stepping in, buying only the good parts of the business.
Wachovia had spoken to Morgan Stanley, but these discussions fell apart on concerns about the bank’s exposure to toxic mortgages.
A deal may be made easier to achieve if the US Congress agrees on a $700 billion (£380 billion) bailout facility over the weekend.
Analysts say that most of the obvious bank targets that had been identified as weak, have now fallen.
However, they are not ruling out further surprises, particularly while conditions in the interbank lending market remain at their most severe since Britain quit the European exchange-rate mechanism in 1992.
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This is far from Americas problem, the socialist nations of Europe have been living on borrowed money just as long as we did. Defecits and credit spending at the government and individual level are just as pervasive in Europe and Asia as it is in the USA. This will ripple around the world.
AFSGTSAM, Sacramento CA, USA
The real reason has to do with the government forcing banks to give loans to low income families that do not have the credit in order to create the illusion of affordable housing for everyone. This is not a shot low income families but rather the government getting involved in the private market.
Mark, Cary, USA
What about the the community organizations that basically extorted banks to lend to people that weren't creditworthy. It is not a god-given right to own a home. But these socialist organizations threatened boycotts in the late 90's and now we are paying for it.
Josh, Charlotte, US
For Expert Crisis Advice: Go to Mises.org, and read the Daily Articles; Sign Up for Daily Email Article. Mises..org Honors the Economic Thought of the World's Greatest Economist Ever: Ludwig Von Mises. David Rockefeller put interest rates Too Low, Too Long; jumped rates To High.
Xeno77777, Saint Petersburg, Florida USA
How would the takeovers of Bradford & Bingley by Santander and of HBOS by Lloyds TSB create a duopoly in UK banking? What about RBS, Barclays and HSBC?
Nick Fisk, London, UK
David,
The Americans got the rest of the world in this mess. Your greed and financial mismanagement is costing the wrest of the World dearly as you have spread the tentacles of greed. This is an American made problem, and you should fix it. If not a financial collapse and depression will follow.
Matthew Birch, Ohoka, New Zealand
The past several decades saw the rise of the so-called "service economy" based the illusion that somehow we could create wealth by moving numbers around a computer screen. It is amazing that the charade did not collapse sooner. The game is over, so we had better get ready for reality.
Ray, kula, United States
I can really understand the 'let the banks go' mentality. The trouble is, banks don't operate in a vacuum. If they fail, there are business failures, big hikes in unemployment and a terrible downward spiral gathers momentum. Who fuelled the demand for cheap credit? Us, I think.
Catherine, Solihull, West Midlands
I would like to see the fraudster investment bankers on Wall St led out in leg-irons and transported to the nearest jail which is where they belong.
SRB, Abergele, UK
I say no bailout. Lets take the hit now and the market will recover. The reason why we got in this mess is because our government created these quasi-governmental mortgage banks in the first place and refused to take action years ago when they were in trouble.
Joe, Flowery Branch, USA
US and China have been battling a major crisis revealing contrasts between two nations. One caused by toxic mortages, the other by toxic milk. Culprits can expect bailouts on one hand while the other execution.
On one hand you get more State Interference, on the other you get More Democracy.(SCMP)
A1yee, HK,
Let the banks fail. A government bailout will only delay what must happen anyway. Far too long we have allowed speculation to drive up property values and loaned money to those who were not credit worthy. Giving them more money only delays the inevitable.
Dennis, Denton, TX, USA
Let these Bankers go to the wall. It's called capatalism. These quasi Socialist Govt bail-outs don't stop the rot, they prop up the rot. Yes it's about time the Fat Cat Execs started losing their shirts. But $700bn from the pockets of middle-income people in the US to save the banks - why shud they?
JohnnyB, Channel Isles,
This has happened by design. There will be a bail out. There will be a one world bank. Cant any of you see the bigger picure.
Elle, London, UK
So more and more banks go down the drain world wide but not in Australia,strange, why could this be ? Yet in the USA Wall street boys say all is OK then it hits the fan over and over, now its across the pond and growing like a cancer.
There must be a cover up some where,yet no one is locked up
brian ross, gladstone, australia
I was a prime borrower, but have been forced to sub-prime now because of this. As a self employed mortgage adviser, I am embarassed by the behaviour of banks and unscrupulous advisers. As a btl investor, I messed up. Sorry UK, i am prepared to lie in the bed I made and fell a bail out is unfair
Andrew McLachlan, Huddersfield, England
Why should " we the people " bail out rapacious capitalists ?
Many off which don't have American interests at heart. They have proved to be not trustworthy (as well as their political toadies) in the run up to this crisis - what has changed ?
Why trust them now ?
Craig Purcell, Baltimore, USA
I wonder how poor old ABN AMRO the dutch bank sold off to various bidders feels now it knows they could not compete due to the weak lending practices of their predators which sustained false profits short term.
don, Sydney, Australia
The bailout should be approved. The question is how will it be implemented. The government should only pay between 30% to 50% of the original value for the Mortgage backed securities. Then modify the mortgages to todays current value. Now everyone would benefit and creates a sellable product.
Brandon, Florida, USA
I have been through the 1987 share market crash in NZ which dropped 20%. It took 20 years for the stock market to get back up to the same level. As a gen X'er is was terrible watching everyone mad with greed betting on assets with insane prices. But I & NZ survived. Grow up! Do not bail them out!!
Gerard Schmidt, London, England
Hmmmm. Sounds like the liberal social engineers did to our banking system exactly what they did to our education system. Unfortunately, the damage their little experiment did to our schools can never be repaired. It's victims can never get their wasted years back, nor the jobs they might have had.
Eric, Newport Beach, USA
Let the banks go..if we save them now, we will just delay the inevitable. The government counted its chicks way before they hatched, and this batch of sub prime and prime mortgages will founder anyway..so lets face reality, people cannot afford to spend half their life income on a house mortgage.
HOWARD HOFELICH, Kailua Kona, USA
The US Congress in 1978 created the Community Reinvestment Act, and then in 1995 CRA was expanded under Clinton "bank, you must loan to X socioeconomic group or be guilty of redlining". 0 down, ARM resulted. It was not greedy bankers. It was greedy politicians who caused this mess
Jeff, austin, texas
These banks have raped and pillaged and driven the prices of everything up so high with their crazy toxic loan products that the average person had no choice but to use credit just to maintain a reasonable lifestyle. Wages haven't actually gone up in years! Stop the bailouts! www.FedUpUSA.org
Stephanie, Michigan, USA
A 'rescue' package is needed but it's time in America to hold our government responsible as it promoted subprime lending through the recklessly-strengthened Community Reinvestment Act and they allowed Fannie Mae to leverage-up with abandon. It's nonsense to blame this exclusively on Wall St.
Keith, pittsburgh, pa
The US bailout bill does qualify as "no bank left behind " corprate welfare: people who should never have got loans will keep their homes, perhaps for free. The US financial system will be socialized, and after all this the bailout will fail. Where will we be then?
RPhillips, Shiloh, Georgia, USA
We are fighting against the "No banker left behind" bill, but it looks like it will be passed anyway. I'd rather deal with the pain now than deal with the worse disaster later from this reckless giveaway to bankers. We are broke and we need to adjust.
K in Cali, USA
Keith, Los Angeles, USA
Buy to let investors have priced me out of the housing market now my taxes are funding the now nationalised main provider of their loans.
I say any landlords who get repossessed under B&B should have their properties turned into council homes no matter what socalled luxury block they are in.
Gavin, London,
David, If the situation is as bad as President Bush and Paulson is saying.....and that the only real remedy is the bail out. What then? We may know very soon what that will mean.
Peter, Fortaleza, Brazil
B&B has been a disaster already for quite some time. Why should the tax payer start now baling out their buy-to-let dominated mortgage business with potentially huge losses?
jj gittes, southampton,
The greed of the American bankers has been breathtaking. Confidence in banking will take years to recover. In the mean time the people of that great country will be well and truely shafted to get them out of a mess of their own making.
Nick Broad, Norwich,
The American people will continue to fight to prevent the US Congress from agreeing to any sort of $700 billion bailout or any other version of the Paulson plan.
David, Houston, Texas, USA