Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
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Thousands of jobs are set to be lost in Britain's battered financial industries as their business levels, profitability and confidence plunge at the fastest pace in almost two decades, since the depths of the last recession, the CBI says today.
The full scale of the mounting toll of the financial sector from the escalating credit crisis is laid bare by grim findings in the CBI's quarterly survey of its conditions, carried out with PricewaterhouseCoopers and covering leading banks, building societies, insurers, fund managers and securities houses.
The quantity of business being done by financial companies slumped over the past three months, falling for a fourth consecutive quarter and more sharply than at any other time since the survey began in December 1989, it reports. Only 10 per cent of financial businesses reported that their turnover had risen and 61 per cent said that it had dropped.
Profitability also fell drastically, and at a record rate, with half of financial groups reporting a decline and rising expectations of worse to come.
The findings are based on results compiled even before the onset of the present financial turmoil sparked by the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the rescue takeover of Merrill Lynch and Washington's plan for a $700billion (£380billion) bailout of US banks.
With business and earnings under intense pressure, financial industries' confidence was already wilting before the upheavals of the past few weeks. The CBI's overall measure of sentiment for prospects in the sector tumbled again, with a net 59 per cent of firms reporting that they were more pessimistic than three months ago.
“One year after the credit crunch first took hold, business volumes and profitability in the financial sector have taken their hardest hammering yet,” John Cridland, deputy director-general of the CBI, said. “Firms have become more fearful about the extent and length of the credit crunch and they are now looking to cut more jobs and scale back investment.”
The CBI expects that 12,000 or more jobs will be cut in the financial industries over the next quarter. Official figures show that 8,000 positions were cut in the sector in the three months to the end of June and a net 44 per cent of financial businesses questioned by the CBI expect to cut jobs over the next three months, up from 19percent in the previous report.
“The survey paints an increasingly bleak picture of the sector, but the dramatic turbulence across the world of finance over the past fortnight will only have depressed market confidence even further,” Mr Cridland said. “Difficulties in this crucial sector will have huge implications for the rest of the UK economy.”
Among the sectors hit hardest, banking groups' business with their domestic British customer base slid to the weakest levels since December 1991, while their profitability also came under growing strain. Building societies' profitability fell at a record pace. In the securities trading sector, expected profitability has fallen to its lowest since the emerging-markets crisis of 1998.
The CBI stepped up pressure on the Bank of England to act to shore up the economy soon. “We think the next interest rate changes should be down,” Mr Cridland said. “We would hope that it could be this side of Christmas.”
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John, London - My partner has a maths Phd of the MIT, 60-hour week, 10 trips per year at least., manages 5, studied until age 27 with no week-ends and no holidays, salary 97k after 13 years in the industry, no bonus. It is a high salary, but also a lot of work and high technical skills. Leach?
Jeromine, London,
We're all in this together, I don't single out the city "sharks" What about the amateur by to let get rich quick brigade? What about the irresponsible self certified mortgages offered and taken by the greedy ? I feel sorry for the decent every-day working man and woman looking for an affordable home
andy brook, Stoke,
As a self employed person of 30 years standing, I have survived by giving value to my customers. What say the 2m per annum bonsus persons about there performance.
R Stockbridge, Bristol, UK
The problem is our party political system, governments only look short term, they can't see beyond the next election.
We need proper representation not career politicians who show loyalty to a party or its financial backers.
Put the good of the country 1st and plan long term, or nothing changes.
J Whiteside, Lytham,Lancashire, England
We were told not to worry about manufacturing,or that most of our utilities are in foreign hands.Financial Services,it was said are the UK's specialism.Well,most of the banks that are still solvent are now foreign-owned too,and could move at short notice. Where are our City 'wealth creators' now?
Richard, Bexhill, UK
people really need to get there facts stright the city does around the 20-25% mark, which still mean it affect them it affect us all in the long run.
James Lawton, pontefract, UK
That's the "special relationship" for you; the Iraq embroglio and economic meltdown due to the uncritical embrace of capitalist fundamentalism: market deregulation, destruction of industry, reliance on financial services for the creation of health, inflationary house prices. An Anglo-saxon mess.
AL, Lisbon, Portugal
Jon, City only contributes 5% to economy?? It's actually closer to 40%. There has been mis-selling but a lot of these so calles "bloodsuckers" are as innocent bystanders as you feel you are. Stop being so righteous. We all need to take responsibility, how many "innocents" took cheap credit card debt
Phil, London,
This should push house prices down another 10% at least. It might even start to force second homeowners to sell up their country homes allowing ordinary folk to afford to move in. Happy days
BW, London,
12,000 redundancies still leaves an awful lot of people poking computer screens and shouting acronyms. It's not quite the End of Civilisation.
Frank Upton, Solihull,
It takes two parties to enter into a mortgage. If you only earn £40 grand you can't afford a £250 grand mortgage Similarly, you cannot always rely on rental income to pay mortgage costs if you're a buy-to-let landlord. The demise of the 'amateur' property developer/landlord will be positive.
Paul , Kent, UK
There are always winners and losers in life, it is a fact of capitalism. Albeit many losers in the finance sector. Think of all those poor individuals in the past who invested heavily in war bonds - £500 invested in 1960 meant £130 collected of in the 1990s - not much profit here!
Jacqui Downes, Cirencester, Glos
snouts in the money troughs for all these years, ludicrous bonuses paid to incompetents, by incompetents...no tears shed for these people...
rocky, london, uk
After the last few weeks a few less guys inventing ways to create the illusion of wealth seems like a good thing.
The taxpayer seems to have well and truly been leveraged.
Mike Carter, Bristol, UK
The bloated finance sector was an unsustainable bubble. You cant build a productive economy with financial services, and more importantly it incredibly susceptible to a downturn as we are seeing.
The ex city workers will now have to compete against the immigrants and get a real job.
L McKay, North Shields, uk
I find john, london 's comments offensive, my son works very hard in the city and isnt paid a kings ransom, he is no leach just a hard worker.
john carden, sunderland, tyne@wear
At least young graduates will realise that " all that glitters is not always gold".
Perhaps there will a rethink and bright young people will opt for traditional careers in pure sciences,engineering,teaching etc.
Skilled people should be adequately compensated to retain them
Gaurav, Bromborough, UK
Thousands of city jobs yet to go? Off they go then; they won't be missed outside the city. Leaches.
the problem with this comment, is that most of these jobs are not always finance related. think of the admin, catering, IT, HR, marketing staff plus the knock-on effect in other industries ex city
neil borland, london,
"i hope you people who sit and preach have your cumupance soon"
Yes, I'm sure we will. But, we generally do on a regular basis thanks to the banks anyway. This time, the silver lining is that the bankers will also be signing on. I hope the scum suffer as I did in 1990 thanks to the Bank!
ian, Brisbane, Australia
The government and the regulators have been up to their necks in the City trough for a long time. The same goes for the Americans. They are accountable, not the taxpayer. Resign now, you incompetent leeches and stop ruining our way and standard of living. No boom and bust? Tell us another one Gordon
Ram, London,
To the inverted-snobs spouting here, "The City" comprises a great deal of normal people with normal salaries, credit card debits and mortgages. These people don't get the massive bonuses and will largely be the ones that go. Also, if the UK's financial markets crumble so does the rest of the UK.
Richard, "The City", London Town
It really annoys me how bankers are getting all of the blame for the current situation. What about the investors? Those who knowingly borrowed more than they could afford thinking that the housing market would continue going up are more to blame. The banks were just trying to meet demand.
MW, London,
i hope you people who sit and preach have your cumupance soon. As these city people are only doing a job just like you!!! If it hits the city, it will be getting to other jobs in the country aswell soon!
nicky, surrey, uk
To Jon Steven, and the other ignorant people out there gloating over the demise of our financial sector, in fact it accounts for nearly one third or OVER 30% of our economy.
Stop gloating because this will affect all of you in your pockets. We are fast becoming one of Europe's poorer nations
Richard , Nottingham,
Jon Steven, sorry but you are badly wrong. The financial sector is 30% of our economy, according to the figures from the ONS, and is vitally necessary to our balance of payments. The wheels will come right off the public sector if the City can no longer pay the taxes to support it. Be very afraid.
Martin, Twickenham, UK
and the key point people miss is the fact that "these people" actually fuel other peoples lives. No city jobs and bonuses. No cleaners, no ironing ladies, no nannies, no house extensions for self employed builders, no jobs for carpenters. Unless you understand the market and it's impact, be quiet!
Paul Maynard, London , City, Essex
A positive that may come from this is that bright young minds may no longer all want to study finance and economics at uni, rather other technical subjects such as science/engineering.
UK needs to improve its energy infrastructure, and will need many nuclear engineers so this area could get a boost.
JB, Seef, Bahrain
The "financial services" sector, i.e., The City only contributes about 5% to the national economy. Why should anyone shed any tears for some of these bloodsuckers who are about to lose their jobs.
Jon Steven, London, UK
Thousands of city jobs yet to go? Off they go then; they won't be missed outside the city. Leaches.
John, London, UK
Financial theory advocates using a diversified portfolio to reduce risk. In contrast the UK economy is overly dependant on the financial sector alone, and therefore offers few opportunities to the newly unemployed from the financial sector to switch careers. More manufacturing and less services?
Martin Neil, Horsham, UK
For a nation in which financial services are so important to the economy it is hard to believe that the industry/Government failed to do a risk assessment on the direction it has taken and to risk so many jobs and so much money. For the sake of a few egos in the City we will all pay a heavy price
Mike, London,