Judith Heywood: Analysis
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Gordon Brown has a dream, and it’s starting to sound like the same one as buyers across Britain. He will, he promised yesterday, put “affordable housing within the reach of not just the few but the many”. But our prudent former Chancellor will have made sure that his proposals will not flood the market with new properties and cause the price of existing homes to drop.
Releasing enough government land for 160,000 more homes will go a long way towards alleviating the worst of the undersupply. But, as the Brown proposals are focused on these being achieved through housing association and other social schemes, they will be unlikely to reach high enough up the housing ladder to help those who earn good wages or already own a property.
That even relatively affluent buyers cannot afford suitable properties where they need them is keeping parents awake and damaging a belief in rising house prices. But those same parents, likely beneficiaries of the 13-year property boom, will be secretly reassured that the new homes are unlikely to dent prices.
But buy-to-let investors who have been snapping up modern flats over the past decade might want to consider if their properties are desirable enough to withstand future price pressure.
Brown’s towns might help today’s teenagers to get on the ladder eventually. But buyers in the market now should start the search for alternatives.
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This is nonsense. Where is the spare council owned land in central London or the South East in general? There might be swathes of undesirable land in the North that could be used, but there isn't any where the actual demand is. Increased supply in the South can only come from the private sector as there is no way in the world that Brown will let central government become property a speculator by buying land in the market to develop.
Private deveolpers will only take the risk of building cheap houses if they are given sufficient incentives by the state. Do we really want to spend our money on poor quality housing for people without the wit to buy a proper house?
Gareth, London,
You're another one who has bought into the idea that we have a demand/supply problem. We don't. Hundreds of thousands of properties are empty. In the early 90's supply dwindled as many developers went to the wall and/or abandoned housing developments. Prices continued to FALL though! Weird eh? Supply went down and so did prices! Yet this is how markets work - when the demand is partly aspirational and partly investment driven. Who will buy in a falling market?
The current absurd position has been caused by cheap credit. Banks and building societies enslaving a whole generation by lending them massive sums at low interest rates and the devil take the hindmost when interest rates rise. As they have in the last year. Once the market turns (and it has in my area) and investors leave the market - it will not matter if builders completely stop building. Prices will still fall. The only thing that will make prices increase again is lower interest rates. This isn't rocket science.
John Wilson, Windsor, Berkshire
Whats the fuzz all about ?
Affordable housing is not at all a complicated issue.
Once the realisation in the main stream of owner occupiers has been established that: They are paying daily interest on an overvalued asset and that this process will worsen over the short to medium future. Opportunities for new first time buyers to enter the market at affordable salary ratio's will resolve the housing shortage. In addition the greedy empty house owners will see their capital gains evaporate and also return there speculative assets to the market further eleviating the shortage.
arik schickendantz, newbury, berkshire
The subliminal message behind this analysis seems to be "buy, buy, buy", although the writer quite rightly holds back from making such a bold pronouncement.
At this point in the cycle, and with levels of indebtedness required for a house purchase, this 'advice' (however subtle) is dangerous at best. At worst it is irresponsible in the extreme.
Dr Paul Jones, Sheffield,