Robin Pagnamenta
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Imperial Tobacco’s bid for Altadis, first announced in March, has been a slow-moving affair, with four months elapsing between the British cigarette maker’s formal declaration of interest and the £8.8 billion takeover being agreed.
So it was not wholly surprising that Imperial announced today that it expects the deal to complete a month later than expected. Technicalities relating to recent changes in Spanish takeover rules are apparently to blame.
Nor should profit taking in the shares cause undue concern. Imperial has rallied 18 per cent over the last ten weeks, and yesterday’s full-year profits - showing a rise of 6.3 per cent - were in line with forecasts, meaning there was little new to drive them higher.
But Imperial is in good health. It has been helped by the US acquisition of Commonweath Brands in February and strong sales in developing countries like Vietnam, Laos, Taiwan and Ukraine. Despite a slight downturn in UK sales because of the introduction of the smoking ban, Imperial looks well positioned for further growth - especially following the addition next year of new Altadis brands such as Ducados, Gitanes and Gauloises. The tobacco sector should withstand a possible consumer downturn. Indeed, despite the decline of smoking in wealthier countries, Imperial’s overall cigarette volume rose 7 per cent during the year to 200 billion. Part of the benefits of the Altadis deal have already been priced in, but the scope to beat cost-saving targets and accelerate hitherto sluggish revenue growth are reason to hold on.
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