Steve Hawkes
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Oil prices moved a step closer to the $100 a barrel mark yesterday as supply disruptions in Mexico, the weak dollar and the threat of attacks on oil facilities in Sudan pushed crude to another record high.
US light crude soared to $93.80 a barrel before settling at $93.53, up 67 cents. In London, Brent crude reached a milestone by powering through the $90 mark to strike a record of $90.50.
Dealers said investors were increasingly focused on $100 a barrel and added that a widely expected cut in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve tomorrow could fuel yet more buying given the prospect of further falls in the US dollar. Dollar weakness has boosted the price of dollar-denominated commodities and helped oil to surge by more than a third since the middle of August. It has risen more than 50 per cent this year.
Yesterday, analysts again blamed continuing tension over potential conflict in Iran for the strength of oil given fears of a supply crunch ahead of the seasonal upswing in demand next month.
Pemex, the Mexican state oil company, added to the gloom yesterday by temporarily closing 20 per cent of the country’s crude production because of storms across Central America.
Rebel soldiers in the conflict-torn Darfur region also raised the prospect of supply disruptions in Sudan. The Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) last week kidnapped five oil workers and yesterday warned of more attacks unless oil companies operating in the country left within the week.
Mahamat Bahar Ali Hamadein, a senior commander at JEM, said: “If they do not leave they will all become targets for us just as the Sudanese military is because they are supporting our enemy.” Sudan produces about 500,000 barrels of oil a day, with 60 per cent going to China.
The Opec oil cartel is due to increase its production by 500,000 barrels a day from November 1 and has insisted that it does not see a case for any further increase.
Abdullah al-Attiyah, the Qatari oil minister, yesterday reiterated Opec’s belief that the current oil bubble had more to do with speculators driving the price higher than any supply shortfall. He said: “I haven’t any signal that there is any shortage of crude . . . I believe a big portion of the oil price today is related to geopolitics and fear factors. We cannot solve it. Sometimes there is a shortage of oil products but not of crude. This is because of limitations of refinery \. Consumers and producers should invest more in refining. We don’t have a magic stick to solve this.”
One senior oil executive said that the price of oil was “madness”. “I still believe the oil price should start with a six,” he said. “ I thought it was a bit racey at seven. It’s just bizarre.”
Petrol prices in the UK are expected to reach record highs later this week. Unleaded averaged 98.44p per litre over the weekend, just below last year’s record of 98.54p.
Max Petroleum, the oil and gas explorer, yesterday revealed that its former chief executive had been at the centre of a boardroom share option scandal, as it explained the reasons for his dismissal two weeks ago. Shares in the group fell by 13 per cent, or 14.25p to 96p, in the first day of trading since the stock was suspended last month.
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Oil Reserves have actually risen as the price of oil rises, less viable reserves become viable as the return becomes greater from the high price of oil.
Will, Bomlitz,
I completely agree with opec The greed of the investors is the biggest culprit behind the high price of oil .Every time you turn around price is going up for a fear or concern or rumor.Never a fact .Well here is a honest truthfull fact Alot of people are going to be either cold or going hungry this year while all these big business owners stock brokers and politicans are getting richer
r kirk, roscoe,
.
Basic economic , the supply and demand are being re-balanced ,
since the supply can't move up , the demand must adjust to it , it's a speculation driven search for the balance point .quoting in a shrinking money , it should found a solid ground in a month or so
where it get interesting is if the supply keep heading down and the U.S. $ keep shrinking , then the search for a solid price might take longer , a deep depression would help of course !
.
jeannick Guerin , Sydney, Australia
I don't believe OPEC has much if any spare producing capacity. People ought to remember that Saudi oilfields, being over 40 years old, areconsidered very mature. The fact that global production is not being replaced with new discoveries means that we are at Peak Oil. Prices will become more and more volatile as global production declines.
Mike Ansell, Reading, Berkshire
Ed is exactly right, more supply would really screw up the commodity traders and force the price back down.
To Rod: Step back from the kool aid bowl, you've had more than your share!
Rocky Lane
Houston, Texas
Rocky Lane, Houston, Texas, USA
I think Opec is right " that the current oil bubble had more to do with speculators driving the price higher than any supply shortfall." They are driving the oil prices higher to make more money off of people who can't afford it. I don't think it has ever mattered that people are dying because of this. When the USA falls because of the greedy you have only yourselves to blame. Look at the Roman Empire, if that could fall so can the US.
T. Goodwin, Hoensdale, Pa.
economics 101: if another 5mbpd alternative supply became available tomorrow, prices would plummet. Despite the fiction that the IEA and OPEC have published in the last few years, there is no significant reserve capacity to do this.
Ed, Auckland,
I think we deserve 100 a barrel oil in the United States.
If we are stupid enough to elect and support Bush/Cheney
and the Iraq war then we need something to wake us up.
I believe he purposefully threatens Iran so they can drive the price of oil up.
Oil was $20 a barrel when he begin office and it will be much more than $100 a barrel when he leaves office.
Rod Vogel, Salt Lake City , Utah, USA
The oil bubble keeps getting larger and larger when it pops so will China and India because the world economy wil be heading down hill faster than an alpine snowborder. Trouble is the greedy will be long with their profits whilst the the rest of us pay the bill on unemployment benefit.
Dave, Mold, Flintshire