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THE surge in oil prices to a record level of more than $139 a barrel on Friday has left the economy facing a severe “stagflationary” shock, economists say, with a rising risk of recession alongside high inflation.
A record, two-day surge in oil prices of $16 a barrel last week followed analysts’ predictions that the price will soon hit $150 and could go as high as $200. While others say that the sharply rising price is indicative of a speculative bubble that will soon burst, few investors have so far been prepared to bet against it.
Sushil Wadhwani, a former member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee who now runs Wadhwani Asset Management, said he was very gloomy about the economic outlook.
“We have the classic problem of a stagflationary shock,” he said. “We have a slowing economy, the European Central Bank telling us it is going to put interest rates up and now this. The world has become a very unfavourable place. Muddling through this is going to become very difficult.”
David Kern, economic adviser to the British Chambers of Commerce, said: “The global economy is going to look a lot less robust and the oil-price rise is very bad for business in two ways. It has a direct effect on firms through rising costs and it removes from the agenda the possibility of the Bank cutting interest rates.”
Part of the oil price’s surge was driven last week by weakness in the dollar, which slumped after figures showed US unemployment rising from 5% to 5.5% last month, increasing fears of inflation. There could be a new stimulus package in the final months of the Bush presidency. “Don’t rule it out,” said White House counsellor Ed Gillespie.
Energy ministers from the Group of Eight industrial nations, meeting in Japan yesterday, called on oil producers to increase output to reverse the sharp rise in prices. They also committed themselves to increased investment in energy efficiency and alternative technologies.
A separate meeting of the five top energy-consuming nations, America, Japan, China, India and South Korea, revealed splits. Sam Bodman, the US energy secretary, called for a removal of energy subsidies to limit demand growth. India removed some subsidies last week.
However, China blamed speculative “hot money” for the rise in prices and said there was a limit to how quickly subsidies could be removed.
China’s central bank yesterday announced measures designed to rein in inflation, raising the amount the country’s banks must hold in reserve by a full percentage point. The reserve requirement ratio, which is to be lifted in two stages to 17.5% on June 15 and 25, is the fifth increase this year but the first time since December the central bank has opted for more than a half percentage point rise.
The alarm bells are ringing this weekend in sectors directly exposed to the oil surge.
Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary said he expected several European airlines to go out of business thanks to high oil prices.The industry would restructure into a handful of strong players, he said. O’Leary predicts that just three European “network” airlines - British Airways, Lufthansa and Air France/KLM - will survive, and one low-cost airline, Ryanair. Budget rival Easyjet would be bought by one of the big three, he said.
Ryanair, which last week reported after-tax profits of €401m (£327m) for the financial year just ended, may only break even this year.
Meanwhile, haulage groups, which are already under pressure from high oil prices, are urging the government to stop new European rules that allow foreign haulage firms to compete for UK work. The move will be discussed by EU transport ministers on Friday.
Under the new rules, foreign lorry drivers who pay much less for fuel, because of different tax rates, will be able to do three jobs a week in Britain from 2011, and will be free to compete openly from 2014. Hauliers in the UK pay 50.35p in tax per litre of diesel, compared with a continental average of 25p. “It would be hard to blame a haulage manager at a big supermarket group, for example, who tried to take advantage of that cost difference,” said the Freight Transport Association.
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I agree with V Cooper in Yeovil - our culture is going to change in response to energy scarcity, making it impossible for normal people to consume as they do now.
The problem is that political/corporate elites are not prepared to admit to the public that the model of perpetual growth is finished.
Daniel, London, UK
Stop buying oil and the price will fall. It is time to realize that we are the problem. We create the demand. Climate change is the problem or have we forgatten that already.
Jim Wills, Brisbane, Australia
Well this is the globalisation kickback.
After numpty B lair Brown Bush big idea to spread the wealth
they could not see the Western Cake could not be spread to a
World size without finite resources becoming finite.
So much for Browns end to boom and bust,
John Leadbetter, Southport, England
I firmly believe there needs to be safety controls in place to prevent greed driven spikes in prices on the commodities exchange the same as there were safety controls implimented after the great crash of the Thirty's to prevent a bottoming out of stocks.
Ted McKeown, North Bay, Canada
Gas has gone up 20% in 6 months.............
Its great living in a low inflation economy.
M walker, Nr Bromsgrove, Worcs
Dear David and Dominic,
Have you come across sustainable biofuel production yet.
It will soon become a reality, and I should know!
www.gardenia.net
Ray Bishop
Director and Guerrilla Grower
Gardenia.net Ltd.
in Association with Willowbrook Hospice
Ray, Upholland, UK
in world war II the leaders froze prices, suspended trading of commodities stabalizing inflation and prices of goods necessary for life sustanance. what iswrong with our leaders doing that again, is it their own personal greed and their alliance to those traders who contribute to them
fred, middleburg fl, usa
When are govenments going to wake up and remove the speculators from the equation. We are paying the cost of dealers playing roulette with oil.
B Brodie, Newcastle,
I am sure Gordon Brown is itching to put the boot in with and additional 2p per litre on fuel. He could also make it retrospective and make it 4p as it was waived/postponed last time.
Our whole culture is due to change.It will be commonplace for young married couples to live with their parents
V Cooper, Yeovil, UK
David and Dominic,
The global economic and environmental collapse is now gathering speed at an alarming rate.
You may like to know that I have a solution for two of the key issues: sustainable biofuel and food production.
Regards,
Ray Bishop
Gardenia.net LTd.
Ray, Upholland, UK
This is good news for oil-producing countries of course - maybe the Scots will finally get fed up of subsidising England by £20 billion/year, and head off to become as rich as Norway (no other natural resources, little industry, but the 2nd richest country in Europe). Time for England to wake up!
Graeme, Dinan, France
Ray - Also remember that you in the US drive absolutely ludicrous vehicles that do 12mpg.
If you drove sensible vehicles then the Yanks could be self-sufficient instead of relying on imports from your Arab 'friends'.
Just wait till the dollar is ditched as the petroleum currency......
Hibbo, Stavanger, Norway
The G8 could at the very least act to halt the dollar's decline. Once the market realises that they are serious that would take away one reason to keep buying oil.
Ian, Chigwell, UK
Hi!
Do you know about the new site www.treehoo.com that plants trees for most of its profit? Use it as you default homepage, it has Google search and more so it works fine. It makes it really easy to fight global warming and climate change, for free! Can any other webportal beat all this?
Rufus, New York, U.S.A.
Ray, there are two problems with your oil shale. One is the obvious problem of that it takes more energy, water and oil to extract the oil from shale, than what you get in return. And two, is that most of the shale is in Canadian territory. Never mind huh?
Scott Rhodes, Birmingham, United Kingdom
Increasing oil production won't help. It will just give the speculators more amounts to buy and so bigger profits. Then it will run out quicker. The North Sea produces enough oil for the UK - look at the CIA factbook - but where does it all go?
Fred, Moray, Scotland
There is much less non-rush hour traffic on the roads. I couldn't believe that I experienced no queues on the North Circular on my way to Brent Cross shopping centre yesterday.
I have noticed that traffic levels have fallen in recent times as petrol has become more expensive.
Nicky, London,
China still get crude at around $65 per bbl. In a way, they are right its only the speculators that drive the price - they have theirs pegged for 12 months.
About 80% of the oil is traded on contracts - also to airlines.
The US can also stop printing US$ notes - that would help most.
Knut, Oslo , Norway
The blame for high oil prices lies with the Federal Reserve and other central banks for keeping their base interest rates too low. Oil will soon be priced in Euros and the US dollar will be finished as the global reserve currency.
Paul, Coventry,
People will always speculate given the option and this is the time for it.
However, if a cap could be put on the price during this period, then there would be a limited level of damage and producers would still earn a fair price.
John, London,
Micheal O'Leary was on TV this week sounding very bullish (Hubris?). Quite glad I never bought a second home in Spain, soon the airfare will cost more than the property.
Mark, Epping, Essex
Oil is in a bubble, driven by state supplied liquidity that banks want to lend to a better bet than retail lending - commodity futures!.
US/UK/EU Recession is the pin to burst it.
Oil will climb, until 1st world demand snaps. Simple.
Recession is inevitable, best get on with it then.
Mike, Tauranga, New Zealand
Why do people continually bang on about huge oil shale reserves in the USA when they must know that extracting oil from shale is environmentally and cost prohibitive and even if you spent the billions to extract it the daily production would barely scratch the surface of daily US consumption
Paul, London, UK
Oil supply is stagnant if not in decline, globilization is eroding the purchasing power of the Western Citizenry vs Global Citizenry.
It is hardly surprising that people in the West should seek to hedge themselves against this re-allignment by buying into commodity funds. This is a LONG problem.
Mark, Epping, Essex
If people speculate on the price of oil its not their fault.
The problem lies with the FED and the US government who are quite prepared to debase the US currency.
SRB, Abergele, UK
Not everybody loses out to high oil.
The president of the USA is from Texas where there is a boom going on.(Flashback Dallas/Dynasty)
The UK is actually self sufficient in oil,but our Labour government has squandered our oil wealth with high taxes and low incentives for more North sea exploration.
James Currie, London, UK
I can fully understand why lorry drivers are thoroughly angry about their European conterparts competing for business in the UK. It is not a level playing field. The whole theory of a European Union is a bloody nonsense.
Chris, Chipping Norton,
I would have thought that Ryanair are likely to make a loss this year.They cannot increase their fares as they are a low cost airline.The high oil price is a direct result of the crazy policies of the FED in slashing interest rates.They should have cut them slowly in order to avoid panic.
stephen hulton, eure, france
Remember we in the US have about 200 years of oil trapped in shale and sand. Our Labor Party (Democrats ) will not let us drill for it. The vote against it was 15-13 straight party line vote.
15 Dems against.
Ray, Gurnee, USA
No it doesn't show that capitalism is finished. It shows that there are worries a plenty for economists based on previous experience with high oil prices. The big question is whether it is true that half the price is speculation and whether it will come down slowly or in a big drop.
Chris Curtis, Auckland, New Zealand
Just as governments subsidize public transit for the public good so soon must they do the same for air transport,goods haulage and perhaps marine transport if they expect to see these sectors survive. This is a time of crisis. Oil prices will fluctuate but not collapse.
ChrisMarks, Boca Raton, USA
This is exactly what capitalism is. Just because it isn't a white guy getting rich doesn't mean it's not capitalism.
Ashley, Calgary, Canada
"Does this not show that capitalism is finished?"
Don't be silly. It's mostly down to the stupidity of politicians. If they were more laissez-faire then there would be fewer things going wrong. Example: food prices sky rocketing because of biofuel laws.
Kay Tie, York,
Does this not show that capitalism is finished?
David Bridge, Southport, U.K