Robert Dudley would not be the first expatriate chief executive to be kicked out of Russia by non-renewal of a visa. Bill Browder, the boss of Hermitage Capital, the investment firm, became persona non grata and lost his right of abode in Moscow after a vigorous, lucrative and partly successful campaign for corporate governance reform at Gazprom. Mr Browder was never given reasons for his exclusion and never found out who gave the order, despite high-level protests from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the European Commission.

Mr Dudley at least knows who is behind his visa problems, but that is scant comfort and the stakes and dangers (for BP investors) are much higher than at Hermitage. Attempts by shadowy individuals in the Moscow police force to steal Hermitage assets were unsuccessful – money can be moved to shelter easily – but BP has less ability to manoeuvre, since it needs to have hands-on control of TNK-BP’s operations if its investment in the joint venture is to make any sense. A huge amount of BP capital is tied up in TNK-BP and a forced sale of even part of its investment to a Russian partner would be a bad blow to the company.

BP’s only remaining card in this stand-off is cashflow and dividends. It is clear that the AAR consortium wants to take cash out of TNK-BP, while BP wants to invest. That should be made apparent to the Russian Government, whose feigned disinterest is incredible.

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