Dan Sabbagh: Analysis
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Hollywood never suffers in an economic depression, so the story goes, and at first sight computer games seem to be fitting into this model as well. As driving, dining and drinking become more expensive, it is easy to see why an evening with the joystick or game controller seems appealing. And, of course, Game is benefiting from the sweet spot in the computer games cycle – where consoles with impressive new graphics are going mainstream.
However the near future is unlikely to be quite as bright. Last week Bobby Kotick, chief executive of Activision, the makers of Guitar Hero, said that depression economics may not benefit the computer games business because the cost of consoles remained relatively high. A PlayStation 3 costs £332.99; the Xbox 360 costs £279.99 with a game bundled in. There is talk of cuts ahead of Christmas but that will still price both devices at £200plus, giving consumers pause for thought.
The Nintendo Wii, priced at £179.99, seems more affordable but its games are not cheap – starting at £26.99 for the tennis game Top Spin 3 and going as high as £64.99 for Guitar Hero: Aerosmith Bundle. It is, in other words, cheaper to go to the cinema if you want to forget about the latest gas bill. As Marks & Spencer’s woes this week showed, people are avoiding premium shopping.
Remember too, that Game Group’s standout figures cover the 22 weeks leading up to June 28. The consumer economy has lurched downwards in the past eight weeks. Game was already the best-performing retailer over the Christmas period. Then, just as the downturn hit elsewhere, two hot games – Grand Theft Auto IV and Wii Fit – emerged, providing a handily timed boost. The impact of any consumer downturn would hardly be felt in the figures released by the retailer yesterday.
But it is not quite gloom and doom. The peak period for a console is typically three to four years after launch. The Xbox 360 is not yet three years old and PlayStation 3 has only been around for little more than a year in Europe. So when the economic downturn eases – by which time the consoles will be far cheaper – another boom ought to follow.
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