Ben Webster, Transport Correspondent
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Britons have a one in 200 chance of being killed in a road crash, according to an unpublished Department for Transport report that reveals how the death rate has improved only marginally in the past decade.
The calculation of lifetime risk for different modes of transport exposes how dangerous the roads are compared with travel by rail or air. The average person has a one in 65,000 chance of being killed on the railways and a one in 7.6 million chance of being killed in an aircraft.
The figures in the report, which has been obtained by The Times, also challenge the Government’s claim that it is improving road safety.
Ministers privately admit that the official road safety target is inadequate but they are reluctant to adopt a new one because achieving it would be more challenging.
Figures from hospitals show that serious injuries from road crashes have hardly changed since 1996. The number of road deaths fell by only 7 per cent between 1998 and 2006, from 3,412 to 3,172.
Britain had the best road safety record of any European country in 2000 but since then has been overtaken by the Netherlands, Sweden and Norway, all of which have lower death rates per 100,000 residents.
Andrew Evans, professor of transport risk management at Imperial College, London, said that the lifetime road death risk of one in 200 was valuable in drawing attention to the issue of road safety.
“Many people will be surprised to learn how high the risk is of their life being ended in a road crash. We are much too ready to accept the risk on the roads as the inevitable price of freedom of mobility.”
Edmund King, the president of the AA, said: “The stark implication of the one in 200 figure means that at least one child in every primary school will die on the roads.”
“You are 30 times more likely to be killed in a road crash than you are to win the National Lottery.”
The DfT report also reveals that motorcyclists are 45 times more likely to be killed per journey than car users. Cyclists are four times more likely to be killed but pedestrians have almost the same risk as car users per trip.
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People drive far too quickly for the road conditions. Vehicle performance isolates drivers from the outside world, and people drive fast because they can. Vehicles are designed to travel effortlessly at 90 mph on motorways, and to negotiate the bends on country roads at 70 mph.
Everyone intelligent person fully appreciates that a speed camera does absolutely nothing for road safety.
The only effective answer is visible policing - patrol cars, whether marked or unmarked patroling motorways and country lanes!
peterj, Aberdeen, uk
When will the anti speed morons ever stop their whining long enough to try to understand the issues.
The Government's own statistics show that speed alone is factor in less than 5% of road accidents. Speed cameras do not make roads safer as we demonstrate every time we publish reports like this.
We continue to throw money at local authorities for road and junction improvements but it is continually wasted on more speed cameras, when we already know that they are ineffective.
Bad driving is the cause of accidents, yet we continue to remove the police from our roads (and our streets) feeling smug that the issuing of childish fixed penalty notices to law abiding members of the community will somehow help.
Put more police back into the community, spend money on driver education and, maybe, retest people every 10 or 20 years.
Safety cameras..............don't make me laugh!
David Brayshaw, London, UK
I once saw a woman driving a 4x4 while watching a video playing in a sunvisor above the front passenger seat. I also witnessed another woman driving rapidly in a 4x4 while sending a text message. I don't think she even looked at the road for about sixty metres of the journey, and then it was only a cursory glance. Unfortunately, the safer drivers feel the less attention they devote to the task of driving. Pity the rest of us, especially those not enclosed in a steel cage.
Tony Volpe, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
For He shall come to judge the quick and the dead.
Andrew Milner, Karuizawa, Japan
It's predictable that the anti speed control mob should see this report as supporting their views, however their 'logic' is flawed in a number of important ways. Firstly, under 2% of the total road network is covered by a safety camera scheme. As such one can hardly say that speed limit enforcement is an ineffective means of reducing casualties when no more than a token attempt has been made to actually enforce those limits! Secondly, the use of 'targeted' high-visibility cameras gives drivers the green light to put their foot down anywhere there isn't a bright yellow box by the side of the road. Hence, in order to reduce the number of casualties, there needs to move toward the use of covert speed enforcement across the whole road network. Thirdly, even the limited amount of enforcement which does exist tends to slow most drivers down to some degree. Without any enforcement the public road would become a race track and casualties would soar to much higher levels than exist already.
Howard, Haute Savoie, France
Whats the point of this rubbish?
200 x 3,172 = 634,400
x100 = 63 million,
somewhere near our population.
So the chance is 200x100=
20,000 to one, in any one year.
30 x more likely than winning the Lottery... so that means which each have a 6,000 to one chance of winning the big prize... ie everyone wins once in 58 years if they do it twice a week. We're all rich.
Do me a favour.
Bill David, Winchester,
So all the speed cameras do not make for safer driving.
Perhaps drivers could give more attention to driving safely if they were not constantly looking out for the next camera?
GJB, Slough, Berkshire
I am sorry but the Times has fallen for a shoddy trick typical of the DfT. To arrive at this 200 to 1 figure the lifetime has to be between 75 and 100 years and such a long life defeats the statement. On a more realistic hourly basis the odds rise to 17.5m to 1 so this is patent nonsense. And we need go no further forward than the headline to this story where the lifetime element has been lost and so even the AA are accepting the unqualified 200 to 1 odds. So the chances of being killed on our roads hourly is 17.5m to 1
Keith Peat, Sutton on Sea, Lincolnshire
The best, and probably only, way to reduce deaths on the road is to design roads to be safer. Speed cameras do not, as the stats have shown, reduce deaths. If there is an accident black spot it is not because drivers suddenly become innatentive or stupid at that location, it's because of something about the road or footway at that spot.
Rather than speed cameras, put in a traffic island, straighten a bend, improve visibility, put in a pedestrian crossing, a set of lights or any of a number of simple, proven modifications which save lives. Some investment in roads would help, rather than taking money away.
The vast majority of drivers are skilled, sensible and law abiding. They deserve intelligent design not dogma, headlines and persecution.
Derek Smith, Brighton, UK
The number of road deaths in 2006 was 3,172. Yet each year there are over 20,000 preventable deaths in NHS hospitals from deep vein thrombosis, In German hospitals and rehab centres all patients receive injections against DVT every day and if overweight or obese two injections or more according to size. That's how serious the German medical profession consider DVT. Is Britain so backward and incompetent as to not follow the same procedures as the Germans?
John, London,
Bad drivers kill people. Only a massive increase in traffic cops who are tasked to prosecute bad drivers will cut road deaths.
Bad drivers with their brains in neutral, using mobile phones, not able to indicate, dawdling in 60mph zones then speeding in 30mph zones, middle lane huggers etc
Shows that speed camera's are just a tax raising exercise and have contributed zilch to road safety.
Jeff, Surrey,