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Read the first extract from The End of Lawyers?, and related articles
It was a typical legal dinner. As the fine wine flowed, Richard Susskind cast his eye about the splendid wood-panelled main hall of the Mercers’ Company in the City of London. The mercers, traders in fine cloths and silks, had trained their last apprentice in 1888. Now, like many other ancient trades and crafts, from the tallow chandlers to the wheelwrights, they were mostly known for their livery companies. Could lawyers die out in the same way?
In a new book (to be published next year by Oxford University Press) Susskind argues that lawyers and the legal profession in their present shape face extinction – or at least are “on the brink of fundamental transformation”. He sees a future, as he puts it, when “conventional legal advisers will be much less prominent in society than today, and, in some walks of life, will have no visibility at all”.
The driving force towards the end of lawyers as we know them is twofold: information technology and what Susskind calls the market pull towards commoditisation – carving up a lawyer’s job into identifiable and discreet pieces that can be outsourced and done more cheaply by others. As a result, the jobs of many traditional lawyers will be substantially eroded and often eliminated.
This provocative conclusion is outlined in the first of six draft extracts from Susskind’s book, to be published weekly on Times Law online from today. The book, a sequel to his 1996 bestseller The Future of Law, is aimed at stimulating debate and, in a new venture, readers are invited to comment on each article. Those remarks will inform the final shape of the book and its conclusions.
Susskind says: “The challenge I lay down is for lawyers to ask themselves, with hands on hearts, what elements of their workload could be undertaken differently – more quickly, cheaply, efficiently or to a higher quality – using different methods of working.” In other words, what are the core indispensable legal skills lawyers have and what can be replaced by less costly workers supported by technology or by lay people armed with online self-help tools? The market, he argues, is increasingly unlikely to tolerate expensive lawyers doing jobs (guiding, advising, drafting, researching, problem-solving and more) that can be done better by “smart systems and processes”.
Conventionally, a book is written and published. Over time comments are made and a second edition results. But why, Susskind asks, not release the ideas and arguments earlier and incorporate responses into the book? Alex Spence, editor of Times Law Online, says: “The idea of this is to get lawyers thinking about what they do and how it will evolve. These are issues that the lawyers we talk to get very passionate about, so we’re hoping for a spirited debate.”
Alongside each week’s extract will be an interview with a leading legal figure: names include Richard Bennett, general counsel at HSBC, David Morley, managing partner at Allen & Overy, and Mark Chandler, general counsel at Cisco Systems in the US.
Susskind’s message builds on some of his earlier ideas in The Future of Law – such as his belief that lawyers are not “self-evidently entitled to profit from the law”: law is not there to provide a livelihood for lawyers any more than ill-health exists to provide a living for doctors.
A number of thoughts prompted the book. In recent years he has been struck, he says, about how lawyers have one thing in common: they seem to want to deny that they are lawyers – “they downplay the content of their jobs”. Rather, they are counsellors, confidantes, therapists, deal-makers, project managers and so on. That denial could be because to be a lawyer is “not the coolest of jobs” or a sign that the need for the Black Letter lawyer is waning and the job is undergoing fundamental change.
Yet against all the changes, he was struck by how few lawyers had thought about the future of the profession – despite the numbers, 15,000 annually, now coming to universities to read law. Almost no one, be they practitioners, academics, ministers or others, is articulating a vision of the future, he says. “No one seems to be worrying about the next generation of lawyers.”
A further stimulus for the book came from the Clementi reforms, the Legal Services Bill and the opportunities for business to have a stake in running law firms. Such people talk about call centres, outsourcing, online legal services, automatic document generation – another language from lawyers. Under businesses, the delivery of legal services will be very different.
So Susskind predicts that if lawyers do not embrace new ways of working, then in 100 years, or less, people may sit in comfort in a converted court-room, as they do now in some of London’s converted banks, and “appropriately nourished, speculate in a leisurely manner about solicitors and barristers... who were these people? What was their craft? Why do we no longer have them... and what brought about their end?”
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.. If a murder case was taken up by 'technology' . 'technology' would be able to solve the case right ? n give evidence on who is guilty Simarliy with Commercial Law. would technology be able to make contracts and sell a property LEGALY n wat if the buyer n seller argue wt would be done then ???
Joanne, London, England
Anything that makes the practice of law less a profession and more a trade is of inestimable danger to everyone.
James E. Petts, Burnham, England
As long as Parliament suffers from legislative diarrhoea there will be plenty for lawyers to do. Parliament's Stakhanovite dedication to exceeding its production norms (regardless of quality or of any reasonable use for its products) will keep the legal profession in cream buns for the foreseeable future.
Frank Upton, Solihull,
Some say that the present intention by the Labour party to remove public funding from so many people goes back to discussions that the Prof had with the labour leadership back in 1997. It was reported in some quarters that the concept of commoditisation of people with problems was a good thing.
I have always had a look at what he says since then but only to see what problem/mischief is brewing. this is some fun and no doubt will earn some money and keep a profile going.
Dennis, Tonbridge, Kent
What about legal journalists? Can we replace them with computers as well?
Ewan McGaughey, London,
Mr Susskind certainly has a point. However in my opinion the timescale for his vision of legal armageddon is likely to be far in advance of the century he proposes. Commercial pressures themselves will be the final arbiter in the fate of lawyers. Over the last couple of years we have seen many of the utilities, mobile phone service providers and even local councils cast adrift the notion of chasing bad debt through the courts, by selling those debts on - often mere weeks after the final demand has lapsed, to a motley, but rapidly proliferating bunch of (often unregulated) recovery agents who's methods are a far cry from the proceedings at a local county court.
For my part, after 30 years at the sharp end of commercial law in the City, I have set my sights on providing an accessible, affordable and amenable array of legal services as a legal barista. The Legal Cafe @ 81 Haverstock Hill is a new departure that aims to align the provision of high qulaity, professional legal services with the market expectations of todays discerning, value seeking consumer. Getting closer to the consumer market certainly requires all the old stereotypes of the fatcat, bibulous, cloistered lawyer to be banished in favour of a cool, relaxed and accommodating professional - who's actually also having a bit of fun at work!
Marshall Levine, The Legal Cafe
Marshall Levine, Hampstead London,
Susskind has a point. But I think the timescale for his apocalyptic vision is likely to be way in advance of a century. Commercial pressures will be the final arbiter in the fate of lawyers.We have already seen public utilities, service providers and councils cast adrift the notion of chasing bad debt through the courts, by selling thems on - often mere weeks after the final demand has lapsed, to a motley bunch of (often unregulated) recovery agents who's methods are a far cry from the proceedings at a local county court.Â
After 30 years at the sharp end of commercial law in the City, I have set my sights on providing an accessible, affordable and amenable array of legal services as a legal barista. The Legal Cafe is a new departure that aims to align professional legal services with the market expectations of todays discerning consumer. Which requires all the old stereotypes of the fatcat lawyer to be replaced by a much cooler relaxed professional having a bit of fun at work.
Marshall Levine, Hampstead London,
It certainly is a time for change. The Market has changed. The firms have changed. The world has changed. Post Clementi, the gloves are off and we lawyers need to think of more dare I say it "commercial" or "corporate" ways of working. Mr Raybould of Williams Lea LPO is right that we need to use outsourcing for a purpose though. It is not just about outsourcing for its own sake. It has to support more than just a cost initiative. LPO has been talked about for years and I think we are now beginning to see the real potential that it can offer. It's not finished for lawyers - but law firms are going to have to be remodelled if they are to survive.
David Thresher, Birmingham, UK
Joel from Sao Paolo, what you described we already have - look at the Tribunals system. Why are the unrepresented at a disadvantage?? Because the legal system is so complex that it needs trained lawyers to deal with a case from start to finish. That will always be the case no matter where technology takes us.
Sophia King, Portsmouth, UK
A few years ago, when I was working as an associate at one of the so-called "Magic Circle" firms in London the managment at that firm decided to outsource document production to India. There were a few glitches in the system, but I think that they kept it going because on the whole it ended up being a cheaper and more efficient to use those workers than to have employees in London doing the same.
I then had this great business idea (it was more of a joke) that the partners should invest in finding a whole bunch of young, hard-working and talented Indians to do the associates' job for a quarter of what we got paid. After all, a lot of the work we did as finance lawyers had little to do with the law. It was more a combination of finding the right precedent documentation and using some brain-power and a lot of endurance and creating dupes of the precedents tailored to the particular deal. I did not thing that one day I would see a similar idea as a serious proposition...
Fanni Koszeg, New York, USA
In his book, Susskind advises that 'lawyers will need to embrace new ways of working' and indeed in an increasingly globalised world this has been true of the entire business community. In particular, law firms have had to respond to the growing need for customer service excellence from their international client base.
Our experience has shown that law firms can segment their workload, maintain their knowledge based, high value services and outsource the less specialised tasks. This in turn allows them to focus on delivering improved service and new fee earning capacity.
The traditional role of lawyers will not become extinct; outsourcing and legal counsel will have to work hand in hand. Today, outsourcing in the Legal profession is a broad proposition. We're finding at Williams Lea LPO that clients are working with us to support that strategy for growth and using outsourcing as a vehicle to achieve their goals.
Chris Raybould, MD, Williams Lea, LPO, London,
Having moved from practicing law in a firm, then in a corporation, I opted to transform my career to enabling lawyers with technology. Now, I am in a position of creating knowledge tools alongside a group is people who bring a tremendous range of business experience. Together we are building now at least part of the future vision of the legal industry.
Through an online portal, we make available highly structured legal information and distill it into the practices that laymen use to achieve the outcomes of the legal requirements. Ours is a world where business and legal experts have come together. Technologists are now working with us to set the technical vocabulary and standards to transform what is a "pull" system for this legal/practice knowledge into a push system.
Now it remains for legislators and regulators to aid the process - if business is to run by risk analysis, then the manner of drafting laws must change to support such analysis. Come tour www.oceg.org
Kelly Ray, Justin, Texas, USA
Not being involved in law i do not see why lawyers would feel one cap fits all, everybody has individual talents, horses for courses. Providing the "Lawyers" workload is passed to trained staff it leaves the lawyer more time to concentrate on what they do best, gving opinion on laws, procedure and possible outcomes.
This change can be seen throughout the businss world today, you can hunker down but change will happen!
John Field, Alnwick, UK
I'm typing this at after 11.00 pm (still in the office, just finished work). On Monday I arrived at work before 9.00 am and didn't leave until 6.00 am on Tuesday. After one and a half hours' sleep, I was back in the office for a full day's work, not leaving again until half past 7.
I work in a law firm in the City of London, and would love for Susskind to suggest who else would do my job, and all those others like it, if we weren't here.
Ed, London,
Here in Brazil we already have some 'courts', to cases without much complexity and not involving much money, where lawyers are not necessary. In these cases people who litigate without lawyers sometimes make a mess in the proceedings. To some people it would sounds an advantage (litigate without a lawyer, don't spend money etc), but I've already seen tecnic problems ending a lawsuit because of that.
Joel Leitão, São Paulo/SP, Brazil/São Paulo
I'll tell you a definite growth business for lawyers....cleanup work for all those clients who try to do it themselves. They always end up back at the law office but with a much bigger mess to cleanup and bigger fees to pay..... As for untrained staff doing specialized legal work.... not on my malpractice liability. I'll do it myself, thanks by supervising specially trained staff. The code of ethics we practice under holds us accountable, not our staff and not someone we outsourced to in the interest of saving money....There is a way for clients to save and that is to have legal work done right the first time.
RP, phoenix, az
So tell me, how does technology and standardisation 'read' the demeanour of a witness on the stand?
teo siew chin, Ipoh, Perak, Malaysia
Of course lawyers will still exist in the next 100 years, or even 200 years and more. Mere existence is not what that matters, but how well lawyers survive by then, and how well they can contribute to society that counts.
Ding Chu Teck, Sitiawan, Perak, Malaysia
Well done Richard Susskind! At the very least, his views should provoke what is generally a complacent profession into thinking more about its future. I think the question is not so much whether lawyers will exist in 100 years time but rather in what form and in what ways will they operate. I look forward to reading future instalments and, of coursem the book when it is published.
Simon Tupman, Byron Bay, Australia
Law is what happens when two people disagree. So legal counsel is competitive. You don't need a lawyer with any particular absolute level of ability, just a better one than the other guy.
So people will spend until the cost of the legal fees becomes higher than the cost of losing the case. As long as a lawyer can add some value, he has nothing to fear if everyone is armed with souped up technology.
Malcolm McLean, Bradford, UK
Comments like that of Steven K above lack even the smallest grain of intelligence! Do people like him really exist?
As for the article's title question, Will Lawyers Exist in 100 years? The answer is yes of course. The profession may be much changed in terms of regulation and the structure of a typical law firm, but in essence, we will still require the professional and practical advice of individuals who have taken at least 6 years to reach the minimum standard required to call oneself a lawyer
Rob T, London,
Mr. Susskind's articles are great! He once espoused in very revelatory fashion, the demise of lawyers through the internet (of course, which internet is that? the one that has opened up new drafting opportunities and internet based disputes and defemation actions)?
So, looking at the Public Law dispute I am running, Part 54 of the Civil Procedure Rules ((read from the Green Book that is updated at least twice a year, and runs to over 1200 pages of very close print) with the commentary on how the Civil Procedure rules are interpreted below the rules) after having read, applied and distinguished the relevant Law Reports particular to the area of dispute (before I even began), I think I shall seek advice now from an internet based 'adviser' who will of course be very well versed in Bennion on Statutory Interpretation (about 1500 pages) and I am overjoyed that he will be going into Court against David Pannick or whomever his descendant/equivalent will be.....
Pete Balchin, Solicitor , Bristol, UK
A key skill for the legal profession is to be able to construe not only the law in a reasonable way but also to advise or draft any form of document or legal relationship in a way that is both practically working and 'courtproof'. Therefore a lawyer is trained to analyze the scenario with the eye of a judge and hence prevents future legal problems. Her knowledge is not that of a database like a harddisc of a computer, what is in her mind is the essence of all law - that is a logical system based on reason which is so complex that it takes years of studying to understand and then utilize it. This system is also not as strict as a computer routine as the law must be flexible to be human and 'just'. These key values of a legal advise cannot be substituted by an uneducated interpretation of the law without the risk of invadility of these products.
However, rising information flow will have the positive effect that abuse of being a specialist will be mitigated, valuable services survive.
Florian S, London, UK
There will always be a need to interpret law, and you'll always need professionals to do this. I like the article, but did have a giggle over that last line - pompous pie, anyone?
Emily, london,
For many people, the only contact they have with a lawyer is at a difficult, stressful or complicated juncture in their lives.
However much it is fashionable to knock the lawyer, at times of trouble it is the lawyer that people seek, not only for advice, but for reassurance, clarity, authority & expertise. If you are due to appear in court, you want the best 'expert' you can afford. A lawyer isn't simply a walking legal database, regurgitating information you could find on Google. He also translates the 'law' for the client, listens, counsels, represents, puts his experience & hard gained knowledge to bear on his client's behalf, & as such represents a complete package of support. While individual legal tasks can be outsourced, the lawyer as a practitioner is a one stop port of call in a busy world. Accessible. Recognizable. Face to face. In times of trouble, people like to know quickly who can help without needing to scour a myriad of legal agencies who may offer this & that or not.
Kathryn Hall, North Wales, UK
The role of law (in setting parameters for social interaction) is not in question. The problem is that most laws were
designed to define 'genetic' or 'tribal' codes and standards, or to protect the rights of dominant groups - and the legal system is unable to adapt fast enough to cope with the realities of today's networked world. Society is busy overturning the boundaries that laws were designed to protect - so the law is constraining change and lawyers are seen as conservative, slow, preventing innovation etc.
In the US, we see top business executives calling for new codes, new standards that provide a platform of trust, since this is fundamental to the growth of world trade. We also see global phenomena like e-Bay - an intermediary that enables global transactions between parties who could not historically have dealt with each other. 'Trusted intermediaries' potentially replace the concern over legal rights and obligations.
Tim Cummins, Ridgefield, USA
Oh I am sure that like leeches always find something to suck blood from Lawyers too will always find someone to suck money from . Mores the pity I should say , as I for one would like to see them become like the DODO, extinct. Sorry brother but thats the way it is.
Simon K, London, UK
I agree the concept that the role of lawyers is changing but not that it is disappearing. I am in the process of setting up a wiki based tool in my current role as an in-house lawyer that promises to develop into an on-line knowledge community about contracting practice. This will enable us to capture interactively relevant knowledge and experience within our legal and contract adviser community in the same way that Wikipedia works. However, good though this tool appears to be, I do not see it replacing our role as lawyers in interpreting and delivering relevant commercially aware advice to our in-house clients. What it will mean is that we have better resources to do this and will spend less time researching legal issues or paying external lawyers to do this. This will enable us to spend more time delivering an added value legal service contributing our skill and experience.
Clive Davies Senior Counsel Fujitsu Services and Trustee Society for Computers and the Law
Clive Davies , London, UK
Granted that several functions of lawyers can be outsourced or provided elsewhere, but so long as there are civil societies with laws then there will always be a need for lawyers.
A lawyer is not simply a source of legal knowledge that can be placed in an online law dictionary; nor is a lawyer simply skilled at one area of the law - an area that could give rise to another profession that is less costly to clients; a lawyer is, amonst other things, a dynamic interpreter of the law - in its entirety, always seeking to consolidate different areas of the law to avoid a negative outcome for their clients should litigation ensue.
With the rise of international business transactions and supreme laws (a constitution in some countries, the human rights act in the UK) etc. and the need for advice to consolidate it all, lawyers will always be around.
Societies impress on its citizens to resolve disputes through the courts of law, not with guns and swords or a toss of a coin.
D Sabino, Victoria, Mahe, Seychelles