Economic growth in the poor countries of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to fall back to a pace of 4.8 per cent this year, after a robust 5.4 per cent expansion last year, the IMF’s latest forecasts suggested.

The fund said that the economies of the region are benefiting from strong global demand coupled with sounder economic policies, but it said that overall the economic environment in African countries that do not have oil resources remains challenging.

Countries such as Benin, Burkina Faso, Mali and Togo are dealing with the effects of a decline in world cotton prices, the IMF noted in an example of the pressures confronting the continent.

Raghuram Rajan, the Fund’s chief economist, hailed the agreement on debt relief and increased aid for the most indebted poor nations struck at the Gleneagles summit of the Group of Eight leading industrial countries plus Russia in July, but he argued that aid alone would not be enough to transform Africa’s fortunes.

“It is good that industrial countries are contemplating more and better financial assistance to poor countries, but it is important not to pin all our development hopes on one instrument — aid,” he said.

There was no “magic bullet” for growth and development in the Third World, he suggested: “If there is anything that more than 50 years of modern development has taught us, it is humility about how little we know.”

Mr Rajan’s comments came as Trevor Manuel, the South African Finance Minister, who on Sunday will chair a meeting of the World Bank’s ruling Development Committee, expressed concern over the fate of the G8 deal on aid and debt. There are worries among aid campaigners and some developing country leaders that some of the rich nations may not fully make good on their commitments to finance the debt -relief package and to double aid to Africa to $50 billion by 2010.

A key concern is that some of the Group of Seven leading economies may fail to provide enough extra resources for the World Bank to offset the cost of the proposed debt write-offs.

“I am concerned with the debt deal,” Mr Manuel said. “There are clearly difficulties, because if there is any sense that the UN summit was lukewarm about these commitments, then finance ministers are not going to be rushing to get to the finishing tape.”

Last week the biggest summit in United Nations history made only limited progress on initiatives to fight world poverty.

ON THE AGENDA

TODAY

Paul Wolfowitz, President of the World Bank, reports on its latest work around the world. Rodrigo de Rato, IMF Managing Director, faces questions from journalists.

TOMORROW

Finance Ministers from the “Group of 24” emerging market and developing countries hold talks. IMF reports on developments in the Middle East and North Africa.

SATURDAY

Finance Ministers and central bank Governors from the Group of Seven economies hold talks. Gordon Brown chairs a meeting of the IMF’s ruling International Monetary and Financial Committee.

SUNDAY

The World Bank’s ruling Development Committee of ministers meets.

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