Christine Buckley, Industrial Editor
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Russia could soon follow the Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds and invest billions of dollars in direct overseas investments if, as expected, its national welfare fund is given more freedom to invest.
Dmitry Pankin, Deputy Finance Minister, said that there was hot political debate about how the fund should be invested. He told The Times: “It is possible to invest ... abroad . ..to buy corporate bonds ... to buy shares. It is less risky to buy government bonds than to buy corporate shares. But we are analysing all proposals.”
Russia is awash with cash largely because of soaring revenues from its oil and gas. But the country is also struggling with inflation as the economy grows rapidly. For that reason, it is now having to limit government spending on infrastructure even though much of its transport network and other parts of its national framework badly needs to be upgraded.
Mr Pankin said that revenues from the spiralling oil price was “manna from heaven” but that it should be regarded separately because it would not last for ever.
Last year, Russia divided its huge stabilisation fund - large amounts of which have been used to improve its networks - into two. It kept the biggest part, more than $125 billion (£63 billion), for a reserve fund and put more than $32 billion into the national welfare fund. This fund will be capped at 10 per cent of GDP but it is expected that it will be able to make riskier, and potentially better rewarding, investments.
Mr Pankin told a Russian investment conference in London that it was difficult to resist pressure for more spending at home because there was so much money available. He admitted that “the roads are terrible and the healthcare is in a dire state”, but said that inflation needed to be kept in check. He added: “It is not possible now to invest more money in
Russia. In that case, inflation will grow and that will be very serious for our economy.”
Last week, the Russian Government raised its forecast for inflation this year to 9 to 10 per cent from 8 to 9.5 per cent. The year-on-year rise in inflation in the middle of this month stood at 13.8 per cent. Inflation is being driven by high food prices, which are ratcheting the rate up despite a slowdown in import price inflation.
Roger Munnings, chief executive of KPMG in Russia and the Confederation of Independent States, the countries from the former Soviet Union, said that attempts by Russia to loosen parts of its economy while keeping a firm control of other parts meant it was at an economic crossroads.
“The rapidity of growth has been helped by oil prices and by utilising spare capacity,” he said. “But it has also exposed the lack of investment over previous years. I think Putin and Medvedev understand the need for diversification. You can be a wealthy country if you have oil and gas and still have unemployment. I think they understand the importance of growing the small and medium-sized businesses.”
The Government will decide later in the year how to invest its national welfare fund. It may then also create a special government agency to run the fund or devolve it to external management. The creation of such an agency would mark a huge swing away from the apparent tightening control by the Government on the economy.
Last year, Russia moved to a three-year budget, rather than an annual spending programme, to allow for the injection of more strategic planning into the economy.
Some of the national welfare fund may be pumped into domestic financial markets, but the amount could be restricted to 5 per cent to avoid excessive money supply.
Russia has become KPMG's fastest growing market, outstripping China for audit and consultancy services. Last year, the accountancy group's business there increased by 65 per cent.
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Response to John Campbell's comment: Russia and the US do not share any land borders, but they definitely are neighbours up at the Bering Strait. The island of Big Diomede in Russia is only 4 km (2.4 mi) from the island of Little Diomede in the USA. See Wikipedia for more info.
Cash Martin, Edmonton, Canada
The invasion from Russia and China is on the halfway.
There is enough money coming in to invest into domestic market and abroad. Russia was blamed for the planned economy for decades but now it is ready to intervene western business world. Is it OK with you?
Victor, Moscow,
I noticed this comment:
"I'd like to see the Russian's invest in USA companies. They are our neighbor and the USA should increase trade with them.
NICK MAXIMOVICH, Richland, Washington"
I have a globe here on my desk and I'll be darned if I can find the common border between the U.S. and Russia.
More noticeable is this instant claim being put out from many media sources of an alleged food shortage crisis. It's planting season here in the U.S., not harvesting. We suddenly have a world food shortage. How is it that so many nations over night suddenly stopped their food exports in favor of domestic food supply? Yesterday we fed a world, but the next day everyone is starving and the sky is falling?
Then there's Russia's local monopoly on oil supplies to her surrounding neighbors which they've leveraged with an iron fist BEFORE the price of oil went up. Something fishy is going on here and in a grand scale. You don't need conspiracy theories. Somethings obviously wrong.
John Campbell, Bakersfield, Ca., U.S.A.
The Japanese market is very cheap, but I wonder if bad relations will keep them from investing in Japan and other such countries it gets on less well with.
Chris Griffiths, Coventry, England
When wil the U.S. wake up to what is happening? We have abundant resources of oil within our own country, yet we go out of our way to import it from whoever and wherever! Lets get back to domenstic production and processing. Keep the jobs and the money here. The domestic boom would be fantastic.
Peter , Louisville, Kentucky
Over the last 7 years America has borrowed and spent trillions abroad to the point that the whole world is awash in greenbacks. Now that the dollar is falling against all other currencies, it only makes sense for creditor countries to buy American companies and other hard assets.
Dave, Bucerias, Mexico
What oil revenue? If Russia is making loads of cash from selling oil, why are we selling to them??
If they want to invest in western anything, they should not be allowed to have more than 49% of any share in any company. The US is already being 'owned' by too many other foreign governments.
Carlie, Chicago, USA
Modern Russia reminds me of Iran during the last years of The Shah. They need to start raising living standards. The vast majority of the people have no seen much of this oil bonanza and the disparity of the haves and have nots will lead to turmoil.
James, Florida, USA
Mortgage? No way! What we (Russia) really need is to invest into western hi-tech companies to be able to bring the technologies, real (I mean REAL :-)) assets as well as motivated managers into Russia.
Imagine that someday Russia would buy Microsoft.
Maikrosoft Okna - 2010 )))).
Denis, Moscow, Russia
Great - now the US will be owned by both China and Russia - I wonder who won the Cold War - hmmmmm?
Willis, Tampa, USA FL
Let us hope they do not put it into a hedge fund, they will lose there money like the Chinese did with Blackstones
Nicholas Iles, Oswestry, Shropshire
I would like to see Russia invest in Russia. Smallish Arabian Sheikhdoms with billions or trillions of $ need to invest abroad, there population is wealthy anyway. Russia has no such set-up, and 100 or 1000 billionaires dont make up for a well invested infrastructure and deciminated puplic wealth.
They should do their homework first.
T. Andre, London,
How about putting the money into some dodgy mortgage assets. It seems that our Government thinks it a good idea
John, skipton, yorks
I'd like to see the Russian's invest in USA companies. They are our neighbor and the USA should increase trade with them.
NICK MAXIMOVICH, Richland, Washington