Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
Star musicians and your favourite Times writers at the Albert Hall
As Britons absorbed the jolt from the Bank of England’s latest touch on the economy’s interest-rate brakes yesterday, borrowers were like fractious children in the back seat of a car on a holiday jaunt. All they wanted to know was: “Are we nearly there yet?”
The question to which households nationwide now want the answer is, have interest rates now peaked. Is this as bad as it is going to get?
Unfortunately for hard-pressed homeowners, the swift answer yesterday from City pundits with a wary eye on the hawkish figure in the driving seat, the Bank of England’s Governor, Mervyn King, was “no”.
Having absorbed the aggressive tone of yesterday’s statement from the Bank, which sounded a warning over inflation risks that “continue to lie to the upside”, a majority of economists concluded that Britain must steel itself for interest rates to climb yet higher, to 6 per cent or more – a level not seen since 2000.
Although the Bank’s rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee is sharply divided, it does seem likely that borrowing costs will rise at least once more. It seems probable that the next few months will bring enough ammunition for the MPC’s hawks to secure a majority for another increase.
The broad backdrop remains one of economic strength, with growth rattling along at close to its long-term “trend” rate, its effective safe speed limit, in the first half of the year. In turn, this robust expansion has eaten up ever more of the spare capacity in the economy that keeps a lid on inflation. Businesses have responded by trying to push up their prices. It is this that has become the Bank’s key concern.
While headline inflation, has fallen back sharply from a 3.1 per cent peak in March to 2.5 per cent by May, many MPC members fear that if businesses can make higher prices stick it will take off again, and become entrenched. It is a good bet that the Bank will seek to take out extra insurance to ensure that these worries are not fulfilled.
The good news, however, is that if rates are not yet at their peak, there may not be too far to go. We have still to see the full impact of the four increases that the Bank imposed before yesterday’s rise, and these past moves now seem to be beginning to take a growing toll on the high street and the housing market. The latest surveys of high street activity showed sales faltering, and trading conditions at their worst for at least six months.
Oficial figures have revealed a growing squeeze on household spending power, with disposable incomes, after inflation, falling in both the final quarter of 2006 and the first quarter of this year – the first such back-to-back drop since early 1998.
This pressure on the consumer is set to be ratcheted up as the new rise in interest rates bites, and as more homeowners come off cheap fixed-rate mortgage deals and face jumps in repayments.
In the face of these pressures, households will likely scale back spending, so that weaker consumer demand will make it harder for businesses to push up prices, thus reducing inflationary pressures. This should limit the scale of any further increases in interest rates.
Follow our three athletes' progress in their preparations for the London Triathlon, and pick up training tips and more
Enjoy screenings of all the classic films you love, plus take advantage of two-for-one tickets
We explore leisure activities that are safe and suitable for all of the family
Times Online's new TV show helps you make the right decisions for your pet
Read our exclusive 100 Years of Fleming and Bond interactive timeline, packed with original Times articles and reviews
The latest travel news plus the best hotels and gadgets for business travellers

Our Credit Clinic has free help and advice
£129,500
Bentley Edinburgh
£79,850
Mercedes-Benz of Northampton
£26,995
Unit 1, Woodfield Business Unit, Kidderminster Road, Ombersley, Worcester.
Great car insurance deals online
90k + Bonus + Options
Confidential
London
£23,716 +
Highways Agency
National
£
£43,405 - £48,228 pa
Notting Hill Housing
London
£30,000 base, £100,000 OTE
Riches Consulting
London/South
with annexe accommodation and 5.25 acres
£1,100,000
Beautiful Gardens w/ stunning Thames Views
Studios £33K, 1 Beds £60K, 2 beds £79K
Mortgages, bank acc & money transfers to help you buy abroad
Explore mystical Jordan
From £1030 for 7nts 4*
to USA's Most Cosmopolitan City; San Francisco!
£POA
Book Now for Winter 08/09 and Get 10% off!
Great travel insurance deals online
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times. Search globrix.com to buy or rent UK property. Visit our classified services and find jobs, used cars, property or holidays. Use our dating service, read our births, marriages and deaths announcements, or place your advertisement.
Copyright 2008 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.
If the Bank of England really was independant, it would be able to choose its own inflation measure rather than use the politically-fixed CPI. The RPI is over 4%, more in the south-east. Maybe interest rates are being held back to save the profits of the banks?
michael clarke, london, uk
It would seem that inflation is a vicious that most will find it impossible to escape from - train companies raise their prices by double digit increments - bus fares rise by 40% blocks - even the congestion charge was increased by an inflation busting 60% - with retailers ratcheting up prices to maintain their stratospheric profits - it seems without proper central intervention - ordinary borrowers and consumers are doomed to a life of inflationary cycles. If the government - in their pre -sell off of public utilities/rail, bus and tube companies - put more effort into protecting consumers from the recent inflation breaking price increaces - then some of the infaltionary pressure we now experience could have been reduced. Maybe one day we'll all be blessed with higher levels of IQ in central government!
Pedro Franco, London,
Charles,
The BoE is trying to save the country from debt-inuced financial destruction. Let us all wish rates will hit 7% very soon and stay there for a while.
Mr Middle England is drunk on the floor. Binge drinking is never good but let us hope the BoE medicine will save the poor guy.
Michele, Richmond,
So wage / pricing pressure is gaining strength, but the good news is that rates are peaking?
I guess it's true that all the talented economics people have gone to the City.
Look at the money supply numbers Gary. Where exactly is growth slowing?
mark mcfarland, dubai,
Sirs,
Of course we're not at journey's end.
Mr Middle England has only just hit the floor and Mr Bilderberger and all his hoodie mates have only just arrived to get their boots in!
Once they've had their fun, taken a few snaps on their mobiles and Mr Middle England is lying bleeding in the gutter, half dead, they'll all run off, have a good laugh, and leave him to die.
Time to wake up Mr Middle England before it's too late. (It probably is)
Charles Crosby, UK,