The Government’s programme of vocational diplomas was already its biggest educational gamble. Yesterday’s surprise extension into the academic sphere, with the possible demise of A levels, raised the stakes even further.

Three new diplomas, in science, languages and the humanities, will be introduced in 2011 at foundation, intermediate and advanced levels, to take pupils from 14 to 19. In the initial phase they will run alongside GCSE and A level, but a review in 2013 will consider whether the diplomas are a better alternative.

A panel of experts – including Sir Mike Tomlinson, the architect of the last (unsuccessful) attempt to introduce secondary education diplomas - will make the recommendations on the curriculum and assessment to be employed by the new qualifications. But the outline issued by the Department for Children, Schools and Families suggested that they would follow the model of the first vocational diplomas.

If so, there will be big differences from A levels, with the accent on coursework and teacher assessment, as well as a requirement to master “functional” English, maths and information technology. The consequent workload could cause trouble with the teacher unions and it is hard to imagine universities welcoming a switch away from examination. But the universities are well represented on the panel of experts, and this could be their chance to fashion a curriculum that prepared students for higher education more effectively than the modern A level.

But the diploma programme is not just about preparation for higher education. It is also designed to help to deliver the Government’s promise to keep young people in some form of education to the age of 18 and to offer some hope of meeting the challenging targets set in last year’s review of skills by Lord Leitch. Neither is likely with the current combination of A levels and vocational qualifications.

The first five diplomas – in engineering, information technology, society, health and development, construction and the built environment, and creative and media - have had a less than enthusiastic reception. By extending the programme into academic areas, ministers will hope to raise the prestige of all diplomas. Politically, there are short-term advantages because the Government is able to avoid a review of A levels set for 2008. Instead of facing renewed demands for Tomlinson’s version of diplomas to straddle academic and vocational education, ministers can claim to be giving parents, schools and universities their choice of system.

A levels have demonstrated remarkable staying power. Yesterday’s announcement amounts to an admission of failure for the last attempt at substantial reform, when Curriculum 2000 tried to broaden study in the sixth form. It will take real consensus among employers, universities and teachers for this initiative to fare any better.