Irwin Stelzer: Analysis
Win 100 iconic DVDs
This was the weekend that was, one on which the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke must have looked back longingly at those lazy, hazy weekend days
when he chaired Princeton University’s economics department. All he had to
do these past few days was prevent the passing of a major investment bank
from triggering the collapse of the US financial system.
When it became clear that Bear Stearns was on the verge of collapse, taking
with it who-knows-how-many institutions with which it was intimately
interconnected through a web of financial dealings, Mr Bernanke moved from
crisis prevention to crisis management. He put paid to Bear Stearns’s
85-year existence by arranging a takeover by JPMorgan Chase at a price equal
to 1 per cent of Bear Stearns’s value just 17 days ago, less than the value
of the company’s headquarters.
Mr Bernanke then announced a new Primary Dealer Credit Facility. Dealers can
now lend the majority of the $50 trillion of credit market instruments to
the Fed in return for cash equivalents, “allowing the Fed to be able to
support the debt structure that underpins the American economy,” according
to the Lindsey Group, a leading consultancy.
We won’t know for some weeks whether the Fed’s weekend work will relax taut
nerves or tighten them, although early signs are mildly encouraging. Past
efforts to bring down long-term interest rates by cutting the short-term
rates over which the Fed has control have not been successful. But we now
have new weapons. In addition to the reassurances offered by the Fed’s
activism this weekend – appreciative noises were emitted by the White House
and the US Treasury – by month’s end there will be an auction at which banks
will bid for $200 billion of risk-free Treasury notes, which they can
receive in exchange for some of the AAA-rated mortgages sitting on their
books, unloved and unsaleable. That exercise will give them Treasury paper
they can trade for cash, and take $200 billion of mortgages off a glutted,
indeed, frozen market.
Unfortunately, that is rather like bailing out the ocean with a teaspoon; the
Fed’s $200 billion, even all of the $400 billion of its remaining holdings
of Treasury notes, counts as little in the $11 trillion mortgage market.
Worse still, the swap will do nothing to halt the decline in house prices.
Until the bottom of the housing market is reached, the value of mortgages
will continue to decline.
So here is the state of play. The Fed, worried less by already-intense
inflationary pressures than the possibility of a collapse of the financial
system, has cut short-term interest rates and will cut them again. It has
channelled funds to ailing institutions, announced that it will do so again
if necessary, and bailed out an investment bank - “wiped out” is the
shareholders’ preferred description.
Now, like Catherine Zeta-Jones’s Velma Kelly, desperately seeking a partner
for her nightclub act in the musical Chicago, Mr Bernanke is
privately thinking “I can’t do it alone.” The next steps will come from the
federal government, protestations from the White House about the dangers of
“moral hazard” notwithstanding. Look for direct intervention in the housing
market to provide government backing for moves by lenders to write down the
value of mortgages, and cut interest payments to levels commensurate with
the lower value of those mortgages.
Look, too, for nationalisation of some of the outstanding debt, as occurred
in the 1980s and 1990s when some 1,000 savings and loans banks (thrifts)
went bust. The taxpayer will end up assuming the risk that outstanding loans
on the banks’ books will not be repaid. That might sound improbable, given
Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson’s loud opposition to any such move but this
is an election year, and congressmen up for re-election are less impressed
with the risk of moral hazard than with the risk of having to seek
employment back in their home towns or in the lobbying firms that line
Washington’s K Street.
Meanwhile, the pressure on the banks to find new sources of capital remains
intense. The Fed may have injected liquidity but it has not added capital.
The sovereign wealth funds did just that at first but have pulled back a
bit, as the falling dollar steadily shrinks the value of their investments.
The banks have so far resisted pressure from Mr Paulson to add to their
capital by cutting their dividends but will eventually have to send just
that bad news to their shareholders.
My own guess is that there is more bad news to come – those “events, dear
boy, events” that so terrified Harold Macmillan. Worse even than current
upheavals in credit markets would be a cataclysm in the currency markets.
The Fed has cut rates and is likely to cut them again. Each cut has added
fuel to the fire that is burning the value of the US currency. As it drops,
its value to oil producers and others falls, so they raise prices. But at
some point these sellers-to-America will be joined by China and other
holders of large stacks of dollars in deciding that enough is enough. If
they start dumping dollars, and end their semi-pegs to the dollar, Americans
might find that their worldwide purchasing power dictates importing little,
travelling less, and living less well, while the rest of the world hunts
desperately for new customers.
But the cumulative effect of Mr Bernanke’s tossing the kitchen sink at the
problem, the moves yet to be made by the congress and the White House, the
fiscal stimulus that will put about $150 billion into consumers’ pockets
this summer, and continued healthy earnings in most segments of the economy
just might trigger a turnaround.
While we wait, Americans have stopped sneering at Britain for nationalising
Northern Rock. After all, the Fed needs White House and Treasury approval
for taking $30 billion of Bear Stearns’s liabilities on to its own balance
sheet because in the end taxpayers are now on the hook. If it looks like
nationalisation, and feels like nationalisation, it is nationalisation. And
there is more to come.
Industry sectors news at a glance. Interactive heatmap, video and podcast
Everything the Business Traveller needs to know to make a better trip
Get ready for the winter sports season, with our resort guides and snow reports
We are backing British business, what is the confidence of the nation and what businesses are succeeding?
Growing demand for energy, oil that is harder to reach and the rise of carbon dioxide emissions. We examine the energy challenge
Enjoy further reading from Travel to Fashion, Business to Sport, discover more
Shortcuts to help you find sections and articles
36-month car lease
on contract hire for
£359.99 plus VAT pm
12 months for the price of 11 and a 5% discount.
Offer ends 31/11/09
The UK's leading alternative to showroom finance.
Finance packages tailored to your needs.
Minimum loan of £15,000
Car Insurance
c£100,000 + car, bonus & bens
Lord Search & Selection
Midlands
Competitive salary + NHS pens
The Council for Healthcare Regulatory Excellence (CHRE)
London
Not Specified
The Sheppard Trust
London
£31,842 – £38,378pa
Charity Commision
London, Liverpool or Taunton
Moments from Battersea Park.
For sale with Winkworth.
See your free Experian credit report beforehand
Book now & save over £100pp.
11 cool resorts, lowest prices... Early Booking offers 15 Nov.
20% off selected Azores holidays taken in October with Sunvil Discovery
Get covered on your travels with a superb range of policies at great prices. Visit InsureandGo.com
World Class Golf, Spa and preferential Beach Club. Private estate overlooking West Coast
Villas from £275 per night inclusive of Golf
Contact our advertising team for advertising and sponsorship in Times Online, The Times and The Sunday Times, or place your advertisement.
Times Online Services: Dating | Jobs | Property Search | Used Cars | Holidays | Births, Marriages, Deaths | Subscriptions | E-paper
News International associated websites: Globrix Property Search | Milkround
Copyright 2009 Times Newspapers Ltd.
This service is provided on Times Newspapers' standard Terms and Conditions. Please read our Privacy Policy.To inquire about a licence to reproduce material from Times Online, The Times or The Sunday Times, click here.This website is published by a member of the News International Group. News International Limited, 1 Virginia St, London E98 1XY, is the holding company for the News International group and is registered in England No 81701. VAT number GB 243 8054 69.