Smash hit

Then there’s the war. Senator Clinton voted for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. She made the usual and fair criticisms of the Bush administration’s conduct of the Iraq war but she never backed away from it. She was certainly more obviously pro-war than John Kerry.

A week ago she toured Iraq, visiting soldiers, checking in with politicians, and doing all of the above with Senator John McCain, a Republican and a genuine Vietnam war hero.

Sure enough, on the Sunday morning political shows, she was broadcast next to McCain, speaking of “cautious optimism” about Iraq’s fitful progress towards self-government. McCain was even asked whether he thought Clinton would make a good president. He said yes.

McCain has also noticed Clinton’s membership of the Senate armed services committee. She is adopting the guise of an “Iron Lady” to undermine visceral hostility to her on the right.

That hostility still doubtless exists. Larry Sabato, a well- respected political analyst, sent out an e-mail last week trying to debunk the Hillary boomlet. He wrote: “Despite her attempts to moderate, Senator Clinton is firmly fixed in the public’s mind as a northeastern liberal from a deep blue state — rather reminiscent of another recent nominee from Massachusetts.”

He thinks the memory of the 1990s, the scandals and the possibility of her husband returning to the White House as a co-president will effectively derail any of Hillary’s attempts to remake herself.

David Geffen, the big Democratic fundraiser and Hollywood bigwig, has also pooh-poohed Hillary’s chances. Although her ratings in New York are sky-high, nationally four in 10 still have unfavourable views of her.

Count me a sceptic of the view that Hillary is irreparably damaged. Time heals. Americans have increasingly fond memories of the 1990s. If Clinton can convince them she takes national security seriously she can overcome the dark side of the legacy.

She has also been talking up her faith, which is genuine. Asked recently by a reporter whether she was running for president, she replied: “I have more than I can say grace over right now.”

As Peggy Noonan, a former speechwriter for Ronald Reagan, has observed, that’s not the same thing as saying she has too much on her plate.

The other obvious factor is the opposition. Republicans are ebullient right now. But who are the potential candidates in 2008? None appeals. The popular ones — McCain, Rudolph Giuliani — are far too socially moderate to get past what is in effect the veto of the religious right in the primaries. Arnold Schwarzenegger is barred by the constitution.

If Hillary gets to run against a grey, grim apostle of religious conservatism — a Bill Frist or a Sam Brownback — she stands a real chance. What she has shown these past couple of years is that she is, above all else, shrewd.

And what the Republicans have shown is that they can overreach. That’s the formula that helped Hillary’s husband keep the presidency in 1996. It could help her win it for herself in 2008.